[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extend Gains, Off-Season Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Warms Up According to SMM on June 16, SS futures showed a further strong upward momentum. Although SHFE nickel trended somewhat weaker, SS continued to hold up well. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,180 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the sustained gains in SS futures, trading and inquiry activity for stainless steel picked up. At the same time, coupled with the news of delayed production resumptions at steel mills, although the off-season has already set in and macro uncertainties remain high, market quotes edged up to some extent on improved sentiment. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 15,095 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 125-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan rose 50 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices both came under pressure and weakened, as macro headwinds from outside China dominated trading and pessimistic sentiment spread rapidly during the off-season. Industry expectations for the near-term outlook turned weaker, end-users remained heavily on the sidelines, rigid demand stayed sluggish, and traders concentrated on cutting prices to sell and destock...

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

SMM Nickel June 16 Update: Macro and market news: (1) The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0%, bringing it to the highest level in 31 years. The long-anticipated move signals its commitment to addressing inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. (2) Iranian media: The US has begun lifting its maritime blockade, with multiple Iranian vessels passing through US-blockaded waters without incident. Spot market: On June 16, SMM #1 refined nickel spot prices fell by 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2607) moved sideways in early trading. As of the morning session close, it was reported at 135,700 yuan/mt, up 0.27%. The finalized US-Iran deal has significantly eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the tail risk to energy supply receding. The pullback in crude oil has cooled global inflation expectations. If the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases the ex-China sulfur supply crisis, cost support for nickel prices will weaken. Meanwhile, nickel prices remain constrained by high inventories. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

On June 16, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the prior day, while the range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -400-400 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Price Technical Rebound Continues, Spot Premiums Stable, Trading Weak] SMM, June 16 – The US-Iran deal landed, and market focus shifted to the US Fed's policy, with silver prices rising for three consecutive days. Spot premiums were stable, but consumption was weak and trading was thin.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt shortly after the opening, then its price center fluctuated upward to touch $13,822.5/mt, followed by wild swings and finally closed at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume reached 16,600 lots, open interest stood at 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt right after the opening, then its price center fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bullish position reduction.