I. Japan Market This week, Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premiums showed a continuous downtrend, with the average price at $384/mt on June 19 pulling back to $380/mt by June 26. Although premiums kept dipping, some traders lowered their offers proactively while others held prices firm. The demand side exhibited restocking for rigid demand, with downstream enterprises purchasing as needed. Short-term restocking activity was moderate, but there was no large-scale concentrated stockpiling, and overall purchasing volume was mild. Currently, the market trading pace is slowing down, spot lacks a trend-driven upward driver in the short term, and premiums follow the futures to stay in the doldrums. II. US Market This week, US Midwest DDP aluminum spot premiums edged up, from an average of $110.2/mt on June 19 to $110.35/mt this Friday. US market fundamentals still provided support: two major demand-side increases were being released, with aluminum semis demand for AI computing data centers surging, coupled with the concentrated commissioning of new production lines at NEV manufacturers such as Tesla, steadily boosting aluminum consumption for automotive lightweighting, keeping the digestion pace of domestic aluminum ingots high. The supply side faced constraints, with Middle East geopolitical disturbances disrupting ocean shipments of aluminum ingots, arrivals growth from outside China consistently lagging downstream demand growth, and domestic inventory continuing to destock, supporting premiums to stay high. However, the pressure logic for the outlook is gradually emerging: LME aluminum prices have already fallen to a staged low, cross-regional arbitrage windows remain open, and arrivals of aluminum ingots flowing into the US market will gradually increase. Coupled with this week’s premiums having stopped rising and weakened slightly, the tight supply-demand situation will marginally ease as external supply replenishes. It is anticipated that US spot premiums will stay high but face pressure going forward, with upside room essentially capped and a pullback adjustment possible. III. Thailand Market This week, Thailand spot premiums rose from $320/mt last Friday to $323/mt this Friday. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, some traders raised their offers. However, the upside momentum was weak, and the trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Local downstream users only maintained a hand-to-mouth purchase pattern for rigid demand, with low willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Meanwhile, continuous arrivals of aluminum semis exports from China, with large volumes of low-priced fabricated products flowing into the Southeast Asian end-use markets, directly diverted import orders for primary aluminum ingots and significantly squeezed local aluminum demand. [Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are processed by SMM. For reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

[Premiums in Tianjin Continue to Rise]: Spot premiums in Tianjin rose this week, up by 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, domestic ordinary brands quoted a discount of around 30-60 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, while high-end brands quoted around parity against the 2607 contract. The Tianjin market quoted a discount of around 45 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market.

This week, the macro narrative shifted from geopolitics to monetary policy. On June 17, the FOMC took a hawkish hold, keeping rates unchanged but signaling a bias toward further tightening, with the new Fed Chair Warsh reiterating the commitment to restoring price stability. The US dollar strengthened and rate hike expectations heated up, combined with sluggish traditional copper consumption sectors in China, leaving copper prices under pressure and briefly falling below $6/lb early in the week to a seven-week low. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding in mid-June. Crude oil extended its decline, with WTI falling below $70/bbl to near pre-war levels, and the earlier geopolitical risk premium largely faded. Mid-week, supported by the delay of full production resumption at Grasberg to early 2028 and dip-buying, copper prices stabilized slightly; late in the week, inflation data released largely met expectations, improving sentiment at the margin. Overall, a hawkish Fed and a strong dollar exerted major downward pressure, while cooler geopolitics eroded supply-side risk premiums, leading copper prices to retreat from highs with a lower center. Fundamentals side, the price pullback activated downstream restocking. After copper prices fell to a seven-week low, downstream dip-buying and restocking orders rebounded notably, with SMM social inventory turning to destocking again; spot premiums remained firm, and demand displayed a price-sensitive pattern of dipping at lows but lacking momentum at higher prices. On the supply side, imported and domestic arrivals were steady, while the approaching month-end delivery caused some disruption to the nearby contract structure. The overall picture reflected price-driven impulse restocking and destocking but a weak consumption base, providing some support to the downside but limited upside momentum for copper prices. Looking ahead to next week, the macro focus will be on the US refined copper tariff ruling on June 30 (which directly affects COMEX-LME spreads and arbitrage flows to ports), along with the progress on the US-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; the hawkish Fed and strong US dollar will continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term. Fundamentals side, the Grasberg production resumption delay and dip-buying will provide support to the downside, but weak consumption at higher prices and fading geopolitical premiums will cap upside potential. LME copper is expected to trade at $12,700–$13,300/mt, while SHFE copper is expected to trade at 101,000–103,500 yuan/mt, characterized by sideways movement after retreating from highs, with a weaker center; spot premiums are expected to consolidate at lows, with attention on the tariff ruling and the sustainability of restocking after month-end delivery.

[Zinc Price Center Declines; Guangdong Spot Premiums Rise] This week, Guangdong spot premiums edged up 5 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, mainstream #0 zinc in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 50-40 yuan/mt against the market. The Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowed...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures in the Doldrums Amid News-Driven Fluctuations, Stainless Steel Trading Weak During Off-Season Demand According to SMM on June 26, SS futures climbed before pulling back. Driven by the Indonesian government's clarification of rumors regarding RKAB quotas, SS futures strengthened during the night session, but in the morning, dragged by a decline in SHFE nickel, they continued the previous downtrend, drifting lower. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,585 yuan/mt. In the spot market, inquiries and trading activity picked up early in the session, supported by SS futures’ overnight strength, and offer prices rose accordingly. However, as futures weakened again, wait-and-see sentiment quickly intensified, and trading activity once more turned sluggish. SS futures, the most-traded contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,670 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 400-900 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi stayed flat; the average price of cold-rolled 304/2B (raw edge) coil dropped 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi, while Foshan remained flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi fell 50 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi were flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices were in the doldrums. Macro headwinds from outside China, combined with industry sentiment disruptions, fueled market pessimism, with off-season fundamentals fully coming to the fore. The overall picture showed macro factors pressuring futures, weakening off-season demand, traders cutting prices to reduce inventories, supply contraction supporting inventory levels, and steel mills…