SMM May 22 update: The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" was recently promulgated and will take effect from June 15, 2026. The tight supply situation on the raw material side remained unchanged. Pr-Nd oxide saw a notable increase on May 21, boosted by major manufacturers' procurement, but underwent a slight correction on May 22 under the influence of inquiries pushing for lower prices. Nevertheless, the recovery in market confidence provided some support for Pr-Nd prices. Demand side, the NEV, wind power, and humanoid robot industries continued to develop favorably, and the market expected promising growth in high performance NdFeB demand. Additionally, after the previous period of adjustment, some market funds flowed back into the rare earth permanent magnet sector, driving a notable rise in the rare earth permanent magnet concept on May 22. As of the close on May 22, the rare earth permanent magnet concept rose 3.14%. In terms of individual stocks: Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing hit the daily limit, while Advanced Technology & Materials, Hanghua Co., Huaxin Technology, Innuovo Technology, and Orient Zirconic Industry led the gains. News [Li Qiang Signs State Council Decree Promulgating the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China"] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree promulgating the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations"), which will take effect from June 15, 2026. The Regulations aim to ensure the effective implementation of the revised Mineral Resources Law, promote the rational development and utilization of mineral resources, strengthen the protection of mineral resources and the ecological environment, drive high-quality development of the mining industry, and safeguard mineral resource security. The Regulations consist of 8 chapters and 79 articles, mainly covering the following contents. First, further improving the mining rights system, with specific provisions on the establishment, transfer by tender, renewal, and assignment of mining rights. Second, refining systems related to mineral resource exploration and extraction, including establishing and improving technical standards and normative systems for basic geological surveys, clarifying procedures for applying for exploration permits and mining permits, strengthening land use guarantees for mining, promoting comprehensive utilization of mineral resources, and clarifying the legal effect of mineral resource reserve reports. Third, refining systems related to ecological restoration in mining areas, clarifying that mining right holders are responsible for ecological restoration in mining areas, detailing the contents that ecological restoration plans for mining areas should specify, and stipulating the completion deadlines and acceptance procedures for ecological restoration in mining areas. Fourth, further improving mineral resource reserve and emergency response systems, clarifying the principles to be followed in building a strategic mineral resource reserve system, further refining systems related to strategic mineral resource product reserves, capacity reserves, and production site reserves, and improving emergency response measures for mineral resources. Fifth, further improving the supervision and management system, refining the evaluation system for mineral resource development and utilization levels, implementing registration and tiered and classified supervision for entities engaged in mineral resource exploration, and clarifying dispute resolution mechanisms between mining right holders. Legal responsibilities were improved, specifying that violations involving strategic mineral resources shall be subject to heavier penalties within the statutory range. (Xinhua News Agency) Pr-Nd oxide price pulled back slightly on May 22; dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices remained stable Spot market: On May 22, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide edged down 0.57% from the previous trading day. Dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices remained flat compared to the previous trading day. Currently, rare earth market prices showed a slight correction. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, mid-week, magnetic material enterprises conducted a round of concentrated procurement, but as the weekend approached, their inquiry activities decreased significantly, with most inquiries pushing for lower prices. Affected by this, the metal market inquiries came under pressure, and some metal enterprises slightly lowered their quotes. The oxide market was also affected; impacted by metal enterprises' price-pushing inquiries, some traders lowered their quotes. However, market confidence recovered somewhat in the short term, and suppliers had low willingness to sell at lower prices, so the overall decline in Pr-Nd products remained limited. Turning to the medium-heavy rare earth market, although market inquiry activities decreased, suppliers showed little willingness to sell at lower prices. Prices of products such as dysprosium and terbium therefore showed no significant fluctuations, maintaining overall stable operation. Overall, as downstream inquiry activities decreased near the weekend with price-pushing inquiries, Pr-Nd product prices saw a slight correction, while medium-heavy rare earth market prices remained relatively firm with stable overall operation. In the short term, as market trading activity picks up, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways. Institutional Views Guojin Securities research report noted: Rare earth: From the beginning of the year to date, the price center has been continuously rising, which we believe is likely highly correlated with supply-side policy documents issued from 2024 to 2025, as industry supply-side reform continues to advance. Full-year exports in 2025 were -1% YoY, while exports from early 2026 to date increased significantly, indicating that ex-China restocking demand remains substantial. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual appreciation in valuation and earnings, and 2026 is also a critical year for resolving horizontal competition among key targets. Resource side, we recommend attention to China Rare Earth (medium-heavy rare earth leader, biggest beneficiary of supply reform), China Rare Metals and Rare Earth (undervalued, high-growth South China rare earth leader), China Northern Rare Earth (light rare earth leader, significant cost advantages), Bao Gang United Steel (beneficiary of dual supply reform in rare earth and steel); magnetic material segment beneficiary: JL MAG Rare-Earth (magnetic material leader, robotics contributing growth potential). Other related targets include Zhenghai Magnetic Material and Ningbo Yunsheng. According to a Huaxi Securities research report: per the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), rare earths are relatively abundant in the Earth's crust, but mineable reserves are less than most other mineral products. In 2025, global rare earth reserves were estimated at 85 million mt (in rare earth oxide equivalent, same below), of which China's reserves were 44 million mt, accounting for 51.76%. Production side, global rare earth production in 2025 was 380,000 mt, of which China's production was 270,000 mt, accounting for 71.05%. Midstream, 90% of smelting and processing demand in 2025 was handled by China. Downstream, according to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, global rare earth permanent magnet production in 2025 was 310,200 mt, of which sintered NdFeB production was 296,700 mt (95.65%); China's rare earth permanent magnet production was 284,200 mt (91.62% of global production), of which sintered NdFeB production was 271,800 mt (95.64%). Overall, global rare earth resources are highly concentrated, and China ranks first globally in both rare earth production and reserves. On November 7, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced that from that date until November 10, 2026, six export control measures involving superhard materials, rare earth-related items, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials would be temporarily suspended, indicating some easing in China-US relations. The US government is actively rebuilding its domestic rare earth industry chain, with US magnet manufacturer eVAC recently shipping its first batch of NdFeB permanent magnets from its Sumter, South Carolina plant. However, in the short term, global rare earth permanent magnet production remains highly concentrated in China. Considering that ex-China capacity release still requires time and given the scale of China's new capacity, China remains the only country in the world with production capabilities across the entire rare earth industry chain for all product categories. The overall scale of the Western rare earth industry chain is far below that of China, with incomplete industry chains and obvious shortcomings. Looking ahead, although downstream new orders remain weak with most enterprises primarily digesting existing orders, some small and medium-sized enterprises' raw material inventory is approaching low levels, highlighting rigid restocking demand. According to a CITIC Securities research report, in 2025 and Q1 2026, earnings growth in the metals sector generally accelerated, with tungsten, lithium, lead-zinc, and rare earth magnetic materials leading the gains, while aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold performed relatively weakly since the beginning of the year. Current metals sector valuations remain at reasonable levels, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and valuation rebounds are still expected. Industry dividends pulled back slightly, but forecast dividend yields for some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, with liquidity shocks easing, supply disruptions occurring frequently, and certain downstream sectors sustaining relatively high prosperity, it is recommended to continue focusing on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earth, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Recommended Reading:

SMM, May 22: Cobalt product prices showed mixed performance this week. Refined cobalt spot prices rose by 2,000 yuan/mt over the week, with downstream buyers still purchasing as needed. Cobalt salt performance was relatively weak, with cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 spot prices all recording varying degrees of decline. The overall market performance was sluggish, still awaiting feedback from subsequent downstream production schedules... SMM compiled the price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot prices, refined cobalt spot prices fluctuated upward this week. As of May 22, refined cobalt spot prices rose to 424,000-430,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 427,000 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from May 15, a gain of 0.47%. Fundamentals: Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained stable quotes this week, with trader spot-futures price spreads stable at parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, maintaining control over raw material inventory levels. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and low-priced cobalt salts remained at a low level, and cobalt salts were difficult to sell, making enterprises reluctant to re-dissolve cobalt salts to produce refined cobalt. The market is likely to continue its volatile pattern in the short term, and price rises still depend on effective support from cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot prices, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to edge down this week. As of May 22, cobalt sulphate spot prices fell to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 93,500 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from 94,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.06%. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt sulphate this week, mainstream brand price centers shifted down to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt; some smelters and traders, under capital turnover pressure, again made concessions on shipments, with low-priced sources dropping to 88,000-89,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises still primarily consumed earlier inventory, with weak procurement enthusiasm, only making small just-in-time procurement for restocking. Some downstream sources reported that LCO production schedules fell short of expectations, and they maintained a wait-and-see stance before orders were confirmed. Cobalt sulphate prices are likely to continue fluctuating in the short term, with subsequent recovery still dependent on the release of downstream restocking demand. : According to SMM spot prices, cobalt chloride spot prices also declined this week. As of May 22, cobalt chloride spot prices fell to 112,000-115,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 113,750 yuan/mt, down 1,750 yuan/mt from 115,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.52%. From the spot market perspective, according to SMM, cobalt chloride market transactions were mediocre this week. Supply side, top-tier players continued to hold prices firm, refusing to sell at low prices, providing strong support for cobalt chloride prices; while small and medium-sized producers, constrained by capital recovery and performance pressure, proactively lowered quotes, but even with price cuts, transactions were difficult to conclude, leading to continued price declines. Demand side, downstream enterprises, affected by weak demand and inventory accumulation, maintained persistently low purchase willingness. SMM believes that current cobalt chloride prices already have strong support, with limited possibility of further decline, and holds an optimistic view on the market outlook. From a cost perspective, prices are expected to rebound subsequently, but upside room is limited, with the estimated period around June. : According to SMM spot prices, Co3O4 spot prices showed a volatile downward trend this week. As of May 22, Co3O4 spot prices fell to 353,000-363,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 358,000 yuan/mt, down 5,500 yuan/mt from 363,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.51%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 spot market continued its sluggish pattern this week. Supply side, enterprises found it difficult to maintain high prices and lowered prices to ship, but even so, product inventory continued to accumulate. Demand side, downstream LCO material enterprises still primarily relied on client-supplied materials plus long-term contracts, with spot order procurement volumes continuing to decline; meanwhile, affected by weak demand, some enterprises proactively slowed down their long-term contract cargo pick-up pace. Looking ahead, the subdued Co3O4 market is expected to persist for an extended period, but the price outlook remains positive, though support comes more from the cost side, with supply-demand and procurement factors having relatively limited impact. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot prices, cobalt intermediate product spot prices remained stable this week. As of May 22, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices held steady at $25.8-26.2/lb, with an average price of $26/lb. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products this week, suppliers maintained firm bullish expectations, with quotes consistently held above $26/lb. Demand side performance was stable; affected by weak cobalt salt prices, downstream smelters only made just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard products transacting near $25/lb. On the quota front, 2025 Q4 miner quota approvals were largely completed, while Q1 quota approvals were slower due to procedural constraints; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, where cobalt cargo had lower transportation priority, the arrival of large-volume shipments to China may be further delayed . In the short term, dragged by weak demand, prices are likely to remain stable, but after downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, intermediate product prices still have upside room for recovery. News: According to Webstock Inc., on May 18, Ilya Epikhin, Global Head of Natural Resources at consulting firm Arthur D. Little, stated that 2027 could see the first deep-sea mineral extraction, with copper, cobalt, and nickel being "mined" from the ocean for the first time. It is reported that polymetallic nodules on the seabed (containing 28%-30% manganese, 1% copper, 1% nickel, 0.2%-0.7% cobalt) are found at depths of 4,000-6,000 meters, with concentrations ranging from 5-15 kg per m², with the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the North Pacific being the world's most resource-rich area for nodules. Corporate developments: On May 12, XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) was asked about the impact of cobalt raw material price increases on the company. XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) responded that the company is one of the world's largest cobalt consumers, maintaining long-term close cooperation with upstream enterprises, with stable cobalt raw material supply. In the 3C consumer electronics sector, clients focus more on LCO performance, so the negative impact of cobalt raw material price increases on the company's operations is relatively small. In terms of inventory management, the company adheres to a "short lead time, fast turnover" business strategy, building a robust raw material supply chain. Public information shows that XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen)'s main products include LCO, ternary cathode material (including high-nickel ternary), and LFP, with its ternary cathode material firmly positioned in the industry's first tier. In 2025, the company actively seized demand growth opportunities from national device trade-in subsidy policies and increased battery capacity in 3C consumer devices driven by AI functions, closely addressing core client needs, fully leveraging its leading high-voltage LCO technology advantages, supplying first-tier smartphone and laptop brands, achieving full-year LCO sales of 65,300 mt (of which 4.5V and above high-voltage products accounted for 58%), with sales up 41.31% YoY. Tengyuan Cobalt mentioned its existing capacity in a previously released investor activity record. It stated that as of the end of Q1 2026, the company had capacity of 31,500 mt in metal content for cobalt products (including 8,000 mt in metal content for refined cobalt), 10,000 mt in metal content for nickel products, 10,000 mt in metal content for manganese products, 60,000 mt for copper products, 20,000 mt for ternary cathode precursor, 10,000 mt for Co3O4, and 5,000 mt for lithium carbonate. Additionally, when investors asked about the company's outlook on cobalt market trends this year, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the strategic value and demand potential of cobalt are being redefined, with its resource attributes being continuously strengthened. Furthermore, as AI drives the emergence of new sectors such as humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and robotic dogs, the accelerated industrialisation of ternary solid-state batteries will become the core new engine for cobalt demand growth, opening up medium and long-term, certain, and substantial incremental cobalt demand. Combined with cobalt's essential demand attributes, its growth potential will continue to shift upward.

This week's stainless steel futures market reflected a classic divergence: external macro headwinds drove paper weakness, while domestic spot fundamentals held firm. We break down what drove the disconnect and what to watch next.

This week, ferrous metals continued to pull back, with coking coal and coke seeing the most notable correction. In the first half of the week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation measures for capacity replacement in the steel industry, proposing that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking should be no less than 1.5:1. The further tightening of capacity replacement requirements had a longer-term impact. Meanwhile, macro markets outside China experienced significant fluctuations, and market expectations for ex-China "interest rate hikes" strengthened. In the second half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing production increased somewhat while inventory continued to decline. Spot market side, traders began to show some flexibility on prices, the spot-futures price spread for hot-rolled coil continued to narrow, some spot-futures arbitrage traders mainly cut losses with shipments, and end-users continued to restock on an as-needed basis...

Spot market, this week (May 18–22, 2026), spot lead prices were in the doldrums from the beginning to mid-week, with the price center continuing to shift downward. Spot lead prices fluctuated higher in the latter half of mid-week. Downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement and digested existing inventories, and overall spot trading activity was moderate. Regional side, Henan smelters primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, with spot quotation ranges fluctuating and futures discount ranges gradually narrowing. In Hunan, willingness to sell among market participants diverged, with spot orders largely trading at parity with the average price and only sporadic just-in-time procurement transactions. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui quoted at premiums of +120-150 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price, with some cargoes seeing moderate transactions. Guangdong smelters previously quoted at premiums mostly in the 150-200 yuan/mt range, but due to insufficient finished product inventories, their overall willingness to sell remained cautious.

SMM data shows that overseas stainless steel prices saw their first correction after six months of gains during May 18–22. Indonesia’s leading mills cut FOB 300 series stainless steel by USD30/mt, then kept prices stable through out the week. Policy-driven supply concerns from Indonesia and IWIP NPI cuts pushed LME nickel above USD 18,800/mt. The market focus shifted from price weakness to cost support, while demand remained resistant to high prices.