[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Lead Prices Will Be in the Doldrums Amid Bearish Macro Sentiment] Recently, multiple macro events have dominated the trading direction of base metals. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes strengthened, and the US dollar index hit a new high; progress in Middle East peace talks and a plunge in crude oil prices, to some extent, signal that metals......

Recently, the lead-acid battery market’s traditional off-season trend continued, with dealers’ response to battery sales promotions remaining tepid. Most dealers maintained purchasing as needed; for example, the wholesale price of the main e-bike lead-acid battery model 48V12Ah was reported at 270 yuan per set, while live streaming promotions were conducted during the "618" festival. On the producer side, this week, lead prices rebounded with volatility, and downstream enterprises’ purchasing enthusiasm for lead ingots weakened significantly WoW. On the one hand, lead inventory purchased earlier had not yet been consumed; on the other hand, the rebound in lead prices dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to weaker spot lead market transactions.

Recently, the e-bike and car battery markets remain in an off-season trend. The e-bike battery market sees strong sales promotions. Since late May, first-tier brands have been cutting battery prices. Although there were rumors that they planned to end promotions and restore prices in June, another first-tier brand launched a points-based “buy * get *” campaign in June. Currently, the main model 48V12Ah is wholesaled at 275-300 yuan per unit. In the car battery sector, producers have also cut prices for some battery models, leading to looser selling prices. Additionally, lead prices rose initially but then fell. Downstream enterprises intended to stockpile at low prices, but their purchasing was cautious, resulting in limited improvement in spot lead market transactions.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Supply Recovery VS Tight Raw Materials, Lead Prices May Continue to Consolidate] The U.S.-Iran ceasefire and peace talks continued to advance, but considerable uncertainties remained, and risk-averse sentiment was strong in the market. Production at China's primary lead and secondary lead smelters was gradually recovering...

This week, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market showed no signs of improvement. Combined with weakening lead prices, dealers remained cautious in purchasing, and battery market wholesale prices continued to hold steady. On the producer side, as lead prices declined, some enterprises restocked on an as-needed basis, and the spot lead market saw improved activity. Compared with the fluctuations in lead prices, price fluctuations of other materials for lead-acid batteries were more pronounced. For example, rising prices of tin ingots, sulphuric acid, plastics and other materials kept costs in the lead-acid battery market high this year, making it impossible for battery enterprises to implement customary sales promotions during the off-season.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,936.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session with a low of $1,935.5/mt, and continued to rise firmly into the European session, ultimately closing at $1,966.5/mt, up 1.65%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,745 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,860 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 16,840 yuan/mt, up 1.05%. Macro front: On Wednesday, Trump said the war he launched with Israel was "nearing its end," and the White House was also optimistic about reaching a deal. Bessent said the US would no longer extend sanctions exemptions on Iranian and Russian oil. Foreign media: Iran proposed allowing free passage for ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. China's Ministry of Commerce: Since the beginning of this year, trade-in sales of consumer goods exceeded 500 billion yuan. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US maintained communication on US President Trump's visit to China. The PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: The overseas lending leverage ratio for wholly foreign-owned banks in China, Sino-foreign joint venture banks in China, and branches of foreign banks in China was raised from 0.5 to 1.5. : Yesterday, SHFE lead showed a fluctuating upward trend. Suppliers had slight divergences in shipments—some maintained discounts for shipments, while others quoted relatively firmly as delivery inventory pressure eased. Mainstream origin quotes were at -25 yuan/mt to +100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters concentrated on production cuts and suspensions, with regional supply limited. After lead prices rose, smelters showed slightly better shipment sentiment. Secondary refined lead was quoted at -25 yuan/mt to +25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, and some shifted to a wait-and-see attitude yesterday after purchasing on dips the previous day, leading to decreased trading activity in the spot market. Inventory: On April 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 875 mt to 275,975 mt. As of April 13, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory edged up. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply and demand in the spot lead market were both tepid. Downstream battery producers had poor orders, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement was weak. Primary lead smelters maintained relatively stable production, but secondary lead enterprises saw declining operating rates due to loss pressure. In addition, overseas geopolitical issues persisted and remained volatile. If a ceasefire between the US and Iran is successfully reached, it is expected to have a positive impact on base metals; otherwise, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.