Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,936.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session with a low of $1,935.5/mt, and continued to rise firmly into the European session, ultimately closing at $1,966.5/mt, up 1.65%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,745 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,860 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 16,840 yuan/mt, up 1.05%. Macro front: On Wednesday, Trump said the war he launched with Israel was "nearing its end," and the White House was also optimistic about reaching a deal. Bessent said the US would no longer extend sanctions exemptions on Iranian and Russian oil. Foreign media: Iran proposed allowing free passage for ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. China's Ministry of Commerce: Since the beginning of this year, trade-in sales of consumer goods exceeded 500 billion yuan. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US maintained communication on US President Trump's visit to China. The PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: The overseas lending leverage ratio for wholly foreign-owned banks in China, Sino-foreign joint venture banks in China, and branches of foreign banks in China was raised from 0.5 to 1.5. : Yesterday, SHFE lead showed a fluctuating upward trend. Suppliers had slight divergences in shipments—some maintained discounts for shipments, while others quoted relatively firmly as delivery inventory pressure eased. Mainstream origin quotes were at -25 yuan/mt to +100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters concentrated on production cuts and suspensions, with regional supply limited. After lead prices rose, smelters showed slightly better shipment sentiment. Secondary refined lead was quoted at -25 yuan/mt to +25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, and some shifted to a wait-and-see attitude yesterday after purchasing on dips the previous day, leading to decreased trading activity in the spot market. Inventory: On April 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 875 mt to 275,975 mt. As of April 13, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory edged up. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply and demand in the spot lead market were both tepid. Downstream battery producers had poor orders, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement was weak. Primary lead smelters maintained relatively stable production, but secondary lead enterprises saw declining operating rates due to loss pressure. In addition, overseas geopolitical issues persisted and remained volatile. If a ceasefire between the US and Iran is successfully reached, it is expected to have a positive impact on base metals; otherwise, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Future price Lead market: As of 15 April, LME 3M lead increased by $14 (+0.72%) compared to the previous session. Prices showed steady upward momentum, briefly testing $1,952.5/mt, with support near $1,935/mt, prices holding near intraday highs, suggesting continued resilience in the short term. Highlights of SEA countries spot lead market: Overall, the lead import market has slowed down. The ongoing situation in Middle East has increased ocean freight, affecting the willingness to import refined lead to distant markets such as Korea and India. Also, higher business loan interest rates in Vietnam, now at 8%, are prompting smelters and battery companies to reduce costs by limiting raw material inventories. Purchases are made on a hand-to-mouth basis, only against confirmed orders.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Uncertainty + Approaching Holiday, Lead Prices Are Expected to Remain in a Consolidation Pattern] US President Trump claimed on his own that he had achieved an “overwhelming victory” in the war against Iran and would launch extremely fierce strikes in the next two to three weeks. As of Friday, with parts of the European and US markets closed for Good Friday and China also approaching the Qingming Festival holiday, SHFE lead did not conduct night session trading on Friday...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Tailwinds Boosted Lead Prices Higher; Follow-up Focus on Alignment With Fundamentals] US President Trump said he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz were opened. Recently, there have been signs of easing geopolitical tensions outside China, and market risk aversion sentiment has weakened, leading to a relative rebound in nonferrous metals, among which imported lead has flowed into the Chinese market...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Fundamentals Had Limited Impact on Lead Prices, Attention Should Be Paid to Guidance From Macro Changes] US President Trump said he would end the Iran conflict within “two to three weeks.” Recently, lead ingot inventory trends in and outside China have diverged slightly. Consumption in the Chinese market has relatively weakened, and trading in the spot market has been sluggish...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Factors and Fundamentals Present Both Bullish and Bearish Signals, and Lead Prices May Continue to Consolidate in the Short Term] Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals, and the market once again bet on the possibility of an interest rate cut within the year. Recently, production at primary lead and secondary lead smelters has resumed, supply has been relatively ample, and imported lead has continued to flow into China...