With renewed divergence in the U.S.-Iran situation, Iran announced over the weekend the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting precious metals futures under renewed pressure. In morning trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2608 on the GFEX settled at 414 yuan/g, down 4.77%. The inverted price spread between the best-selling price of Pt9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2608 narrowed to around 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum stood at discounts of 2 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract. Despite a sharp drop in platinum futures, spot discounts narrowed only slightly. Most traders quoted at the higher end of the range but generally reported difficulty in closing deals. Downstream enterprises mainly engaged in rigid-demand stockpiling, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Some suppliers indicated no significant improvement in spot market consumption. Overall, platinum trading activity remained sluggish for the day.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted against the front-month contract at an average discount of 250–150 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 200 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 104,355 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[Guangdong Region: Contract Rollover During the Week, Spot Discounts Widen] At the beginning of the week, Guangdong rolled over contract quotes, and under the contango structure, spot discounts widened. Meanwhile, the zinc price center fluctuated at highs, and end-user procurement was mostly driven by rigid demand. Influenced by procurement costs, traders quoted relatively high prices, providing some support at the bottom for premiums. However, constrained by weak end-use consumption and expectations of increased future arrivals, premiums are expected to remain in discount territory......

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt shortly after the opening, then its price center fluctuated upward to touch $13,822.5/mt, followed by wild swings and finally closed at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume reached 16,600 lots, open interest stood at 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt right after the opening, then its price center fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bullish position reduction.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.