Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to parity against the front-month contract today. The average premium/discount fell by 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price rose by 195 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,840 yuan/mt.

Yesterday’s night session, copper prices opened lower with a gap, and some enterprises placed orders to restock at low levels. Intraday procurement demand increased somewhat, but given the concentrated replenishment on the previous day, actual incremental buying was limited. From the market structure perspective, the import arbitrage window widened slightly, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China increased, which may put some pressure on the supply side. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. At the start of the week, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to cool, and the market even began to price in possible rate hikes, weakening expectations for macro liquidity and putting copper prices under pressure, causing them to pull back. Mid-week, after the US Fed kept rates unchanged, the US PPI annual rate rose more than expected to 3.4, further weighing on market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. According to market sources, traders no longer priced in any US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on easing expectations faded further. The continued escalation in US-Iran tensions fueled safe-haven sentiment, while elevated oil prices intensified concerns over inflation and economic weakness. The stronger US dollar index also suppressed copper prices. In terms of fund positioning, the futures were mainly marked by long liquidation, with risk-off sentiment among funds rising and willingness to take profits at high levels increasing. Overall, macro headwinds dominated market sentiment, and copper prices came under pressure and corrected lower. Fundamentals side, copper concentrates TC continued to pull back. This week, the imported copper concentrates index was reported at -$67.32/mt, further lower WoW and at a historical low, with smelting pressure continuing to mount. In copper cathode, the continued downward shift in the center of copper prices significantly stimulated restocking demand from downstream enterprises, and spot inventory showed a rapid destocking trend. The import window remained open, but actual subsequent inflows of imported cargo still need further observation. According to SMM, orders at most downstream enterprises surged, with generally strong enthusiasm for buying the dip. Some sectors were notably boosted by the pullback in copper prices, and order performance improved. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic remains unchanged. Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, intertwined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will continue to weigh on copper prices. However, fundamental support for copper prices is gradually strengthening. Faster destocking and stronger downstream restocking willingness will limit downside room, and copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $11,700/mt and $12,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 91,000 yuan/mt and 97,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, as downstream restocking continues and inventory is drawn down, spot premiums are expected to continue to recover, but inflows of imported cargo and suppliers selling on strength will cap upside room. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.

March 18, 2026: The average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closed at $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closed at $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $26/mt (price range: $21-31/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from late March to mid-April. Since last night, SHFE prices had continued to decline, while China spot premiums rose, opening the window for spot imports. Suppliers actively sought bonded warrants or B/Ls arriving in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/Ls arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L offers for arrival in late March and early April were quoted at $35, while EQ B/Ls arriving in mid-to-late April were offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with both April and May QP available. Standard ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,093.5/mt. Early in the session, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $11,754/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,228.5/mt, before seeing wide swings and finally closing at $12,211.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 46,900 lots, open interest stood at 288,600 lots, an increase of 239 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 92,500 yuan/mt and fell to 91,820 yuan/mt early in the session. The center of copper prices then fluctuated upward to a high of 95,530 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 94,920 yuan/mt, down 0.91%. Trading volume reached 153,000 lots, open interest stood at 197,000 lots, down 6,302 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium/discount at parity, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 95,645 yuan/mt, down 3,375 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.