On June 26, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $67/mt (price range $62-72/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $69/mt (price range $64-74/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $38/mt (price range $35-41/mt), offerings based on arrivals in early July. Intraday, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back, the market returned to sluggishness, with only a few spot cargo offers. Heard that EQ B/L for early July arrival traded at around $40/mt, and a small number of EQ physical transactions for late June arrival closed above $38/mt. Heard that registered B/L for early July arrival were quoted at $70-75/mt, and registered warrants for delivery in early July traded at $70/mt.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the market supply-demand structure may undergo marginal changes. On one hand, during the day, some traders will have replenishment needs due to prior overselling, and with the concentrated release of demand to replenish cargoes with invoices dated this month, available low-priced supplies will be quickly absorbed. Subsequently, the available spot copper in the market is expected to remain tight. On the other hand, from a market sentiment perspective, copper prices are currently at relatively low levels, and suppliers generally hold an optimistic outlook on future spot premiums, showing weak willingness to sell at low prices, which provides support to spot premiums. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, and the discount may narrow slightly.

In North China, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at an average discount of 170 yuan/mt to 110 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 101,435 yuan/mt, up 495 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

On June 25, the average warrant price rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day to $67/mt (price range: $62-72/mt); the average B/L price rose by $2/mt to $69/mt (price range: $64-74/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $3/mt to $38/mt (price range: $35-41/mt), with offers based on arrivals in early July. Overnight, the SHFE/LME price ratio surged sharply. In the morning market, conditions were similar to yesterday, with demand more robust. Registered warrants and B/Ls for early July arrival were swept clean, and EQ also saw significant transactions. It was heard that EQ B/Ls arriving in early July traded around $40/mt, while a small number of physical EQ cargoes arriving in late June traded above $38/mt. Offers for registered B/Ls arriving in early July were reportedly quoted at $70-75/mt, and registered warrants for delivery in early July were traded at $70/mt.

In North China, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at discounts ranging from 210 yuan/mt to 130 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 100,940 yuan/mt, down 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices pulled back in the night session yesterday, prompting some downstream enterprises to actively buy the dip. Intraday purchasing demand increased significantly. After low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed, suppliers began to show a willingness to hold prices firm, and subsequently, the momentum for selling at low prices weakened. Regarding market structure, the inter-month price spread has shifted into a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and providing support for spot discounts. On the supply side, the import window briefly opened during the night session, and additional supply from outside China may follow. Overall, with support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at discounts tomorrow, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.