May 6, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $5/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $69/mt (price range $62-76/mt); the average B/L price rose by $5/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $66/mt (price range $61-73/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $5/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $36/mt (price range $30-42/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in early to mid-May. The SHFE/LME price ratio remained open after the holiday. As a major industry conference was held in Hong Kong this week, spot trader activity in the market was limited. Most traders in the market chose to import on their own, with a small number of offers rising notably. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in early May was offered at $75/mt, QP May; EQ B/L arriving in early May was offered at $48/mt, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-May was offered at $50/mt, QP May-June. ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were offered at $80/mt, with no deals heard so far, QP June.

SMM May 6 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 270 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,550 yuan/mt, up 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,445 yuan/mt, up 970 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the holiday, Guangdong inventory continued to increase and had risen for 3 consecutive days, mainly due to weak downstream consumption. Hit by both rising inventory and higher copper prices, downstream restocking enthusiasm was lukewarm, and suppliers had to lower premiums to facilitate shipments. Standard-quality copper quotes continued to decline, with early-session quotes at 200 yuan/mt before being lowered to 160 yuan/mt. Guangdong copper cathode procurement sentiment today was 2.32, up 0.12 from the previous trading day, while shipments sentiment was 3.21, down 0.24 from the previous trading day (historical data available via the database). Overall, copper prices rose while suppliers lowered premiums to facilitate shipments, and trading activity was moderate.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, on the inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 188,300 mt after the holiday, up 6,500 mt WoW, while inventory in the Jiangsu area was 41,700 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW. The destocking trend in social inventory saw its first inflection point, shifting to a slight inventory buildup during the holiday period, though the increase was not yet significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of subsequent inventory buildup. Supply side, although the import window remained profitable, logistics disruptions in Africa led to reduced import arrivals, limiting short-term incremental spot cargo circulation. Demand side, after the rise in copper prices, end-user purchase willingness weakened, compounded by suppliers holding back from selling, spot premiums rose, and market trading was thin on both sides. Overall, under the multiple factors of high prices suppressing demand, the initial emergence of an inventory inflection point, suppliers holding back from selling, and reduced import arrivals, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

[SMM North China Spot Copper Cathode Market] On the first day after the holiday, downstream restocking demand in North China was mediocre due to rising copper prices, and upstream inventory accumulation put spot premiums under pressure to some extent.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 200 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 150 yuan/mt unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 102,280 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,039/mt, dipped to $13,012/mt early in the session before the center shifted higher, touching a high of $13,161/mt and then moving sideways at elevated levels, ultimately closing at $13,100.5/mt, up 1.17%, with trading volume at 17,700 lots and open interest at 266,000 lots, an increase of 762 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bullish position building. The most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract was closed overnight due to the Labour Day holiday.