SMM February 24: SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the price center rising from the previous trading day. Influenced by the higher SHFE aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment still lagged behind shipment sentiment, but due to the end of the Chinese New Year break, transaction sentiment rose compared to the pre-holiday trading day. Mainstream quotations concentrated at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to the average price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.34, up 0.34 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.31, up 0.25 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 23,390 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 160 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 210 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. After the Chinese New Year break, traders and downstream enterprises in central China gradually resumed work. Aluminum ingot inventory saw a significant buildup, and post-holiday recovery boosted shipment and purchase willingness among traders and processing enterprises. However, as the holiday was not completely over, some traders adopted a wait-and-see approach, and market transactions remained sluggish. Actual transaction prices in the central China market finally ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 20 yuan against the central China price, with premiums and discounts narrowing as aluminum prices rose. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.52, up 0.27 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.14, up 0.24 WoW. SMM central China closed at 23,310 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 240 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 290 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 196,000 mt WoW, with all three regions showing inventory buildup due to downstream Chinese New Year breaks. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, and combined with the impact of downstream holiday breaks, aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Aluminum Prices Edged Up Overnight as US-Iran Tensions Briefly Escalated] Overall, the short-term volatility risks in SHFE aluminum and nonferrous metals markets have increased significantly. Prices may continue to be affected by factors such as the US Fed's policy shift, and further amplification of fluctuations cannot be ruled out. It is essential to closely monitor market dynamics and regulatory policy changes, conduct trading rationally and in compliance, and prudently manage positions and risks.

SMM February 3 news: Aluminum ingot: On February 3, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 23,310 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt, at a discount of 200 yuan/mt against the front-month contract. During the day, aluminum prices fell sharply. Suppliers generally held prices firm amid limited inventory pressure, but some chose to offer discounts to recoup funds. Downstream end-users restocked based on rigid demand at low prices, and trading was moderate in the morning session. However, in the afternoon, futures continued to decline, and buyers turned cautious, resulting in overall trading that was stronger earlier and weaker later. Aluminum billet: On February 3, the average processing fee for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) specifications Φ90/100 was 50 yuan/mt, while for specifications Φ120 and above, the average processing fee was 0 yuan/mt, down about 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. Dragged down by the sharp decline in aluminum futures, processing fees struggled to rise, and market offers quickly moved lower to hit bottom. Although some producers tentatively raised processing fees, demand significantly shrank as end-users gradually entered holidays, with only a few plants making small restocks. Overall, volume discounts were offered, and trading was sluggish.

According to SMM, wire and cable enterprises in Hebei reported being in a semi-shutdown state, with the industry's operating rate showing weakness and market consumption momentum being insufficient. This weak performance is mainly attributed to two factors: Firstly, the State Grid has just undergone a round of centralized delivery cycles. Although enterprises have sufficient orders on hand, new orders have not yet been matched in a timely manner. Secondly, the current spot aluminum prices are at a high level, while the bid prices offered by enterprises in the early stage are significantly lower than the current prices, resulting in a significant inversion. This has severely compressed profit margins, leading to low purchase willingness for raw materials and insufficient motivation for enterprises to operate and build up finished product inventories.

According to SMM statistics, regarding the inventory of aluminum billets in two domestic locations, the inventory of aluminum billet in Guangdong was 56,800 mt, while the inventory in Wuxi was 19,800 mt, totaling 76,600 mt, a decrease of 1,400 mt MoM. SHFE aluminum prices surged consecutively, with A00 spot aluminum prices in east China gradually approaching the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold. In recent times, the aluminum billet market has seen sluggish transaction performance due to the suppression of high aluminum prices, and the de-stocking of aluminum billets has also shown a significant slowdown. Downstream sentiment is strongly influenced by fear of high prices, and market quotations are severely polarized. The overall center of processing fees for aluminum billets in three domestic locations has shifted significantly downward, with double-digit processing fee quotations appearing in Wuxi and Foshan, and even zero or negative processing fees in Nanchang, resulting in dismal transaction performance. As of June 18, 2025, the aluminum billet market in Foshan reported 50/100, down 100; the processing fees for aluminum billets in Wuxi were reported at 50/130, down 110; and the processing fees in Nanchang were reported at -50/0, down 80. (Unit: yuan/mt)

According to SMM statistics, regarding the inventory of aluminum billets in two domestic locations, the inventory of aluminum billet in Guangdong was 56,800 mt, while the inventory in Wuxi was 19,800 mt, totaling 76,600 mt, a decrease of 1,400 mt MoM. SHFE aluminum prices surged consecutively, with A00 spot aluminum prices in east China gradually approaching the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold. In recent times, the aluminum billet market has seen sluggish transaction performance due to the suppression of high aluminum prices, and the de-stocking of aluminum billets has also shown a significant slowdown. Downstream sentiment is strongly influenced by fear of high prices, and market quotations are severely polarized. The overall center of processing fees for aluminum billets in three domestic locations has shifted significantly downward, with double-digit processing fee quotations appearing in Wuxi and Foshan, and even zero or negative processing fees in Nanchang, resulting in dismal transaction performance. As of June 18, 2025, the aluminum billet market in Foshan reported 50/100, down 100; the processing fees for aluminum billets in Wuxi were reported at 50/130, down 110; and the processing fees in Nanchang were reported at -50/0, down 80. (Unit: yuan/mt)