[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Rise for Four Straight Days, Spot Premiums Steady, Trading Weak] SMM June 17: The second phase of the US-Iran agreement was implemented, crude oil plunged, dragging down commodities, while gold's consecutive gains provided support. Spot premiums held steady, consumption was weak, and the market awaited guidance from the US Fed's interest rate decision.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt shortly after the opening, then its price center fluctuated upward to touch $13,822.5/mt, followed by wild swings and finally closed at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume reached 16,600 lots, open interest stood at 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt right after the opening, then its price center fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bullish position reduction.

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session and then pulled back, while spot market trading was overall thin.]

SMM, June 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt and fluctuated downward during the Asian session. After entering the European session, it dipped to $1,962/mt. On the eve of the US Fed’s interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead released pressure and rebounded. It touched a high of $1,983.5/mt late in the session and finally closed at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, briefly touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt in early trading. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt late in the session. The KDJ opening widened, and it finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. Transactions of cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters weakened, while secondary lead smelters added new maintenance, leaving uncertainty on the supply side. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement. Some enterprises, as their lead ingot inventory was sufficient for just-in-time production and supplemented by pick-up goods under long-term contract, stopped spot order purchases. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, beware of the drag on lead prices from a market with both weak supply and weak demand.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Zinc Inventory Rises Notably, LME Zinc Center Moves Lower] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,579.5/mt, briefly rose to a high of $3,599/mt in early trading, then retreated from highs and fell all the way, dipping to $3,539/mt during the session. Then LME zinc rebounded slightly from the low to near the daily moving average and moved in a narrow range, finally closing down at $3,561.5/mt...