[SMM Tin Midday Review: Semiconductor Counter-Trend Rebound and Overseas Geopolitical Reversal Drag Down SHFE Tin Contract Center]

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , paid a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and worldwide metal industry stakeholders. During the exchange meeting, AETI representatives gave a detailed introduction to the association’s development background and the overall production and operational status of some local tin enterprises in Indonesia. In the Q&A session, the two sides had in-depth discussions on key industry topics such as the progress of Indonesian tin ore mining quota approvals and certain current industry-related policies, sharing market information and exchanging industry perspectives. This face-to-face exchange further strengthened ties between industry partners in and outside China, laying a solid foundation for future cross-regional cooperation and information sharing along the tin industry chain. Introduction to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Profile The AETI was established on May 9, 2014, and became a member of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN) on March 14, 2015. Objectives: Creating productive collaboration between the government, entrepreneurs, and stakeholders Increasing the added value of Indonesian Tin Encouraging the implementation of Good Mining Practices in the tin mining industry Board of AETI Management AETI Members Currently, AETI has 23 member companies of tin exporters spread across the islands of Bangka, Belitung, and Riau AETI Mandate/Functions Advocating for policies that support the national tin industry Maintaining the stability and sustainability of the tin export market Ensuring member compliance with environmental and trading regulations Serving as a forum of communication between tin exporters and the government AETI Internal Activities Training & Development AETI Member Meeting TinSeller–BuyerMeeting Others: Reclamation, Charity, Conference, etc. As a demonstration of AETI's commitment to the environment, we have launched a reclamation program targeting 500 hectares of abandoned post mining land in Bangka Belitung. AETI also runs regular social programs for the community in Bangka Belitung Indonesia Tin Update AETI forecasts that the total national tin production quota in the 2026 Mining Work Plan (RKAB) will be approximately 50,000 tons. This figure has been adjusted from around 53,000 tons in 2025 to stabilize global tin prices. Currently, ten enterprises have obtained RKAB approvals. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is implementing a more selective evaluation and adjustment of the RKAB. The Indonesian government has introduced these policies to secure future energy reserves while simultaneously controling the structure of tin trade to prevent illegal mining practices. Dynamics of Indonesian Tin Industry Regulatory Policies The dynamics of tin regulation in Indonesia over past years have undergone a massive paradigm shift. Driven by ensuring the sustainability and improving the governance of natural resources, optimizing state revenue and promoting downstream industrialization. 1. The validity period of the RKAB has been restored to one year (previously a three-year system). The policy aims to strengthen the government’s supervision of annual production, close loopholes in illegal mining, and adjust quotas in real time based on global market demand. Legal basis: an Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) ministerial regulation, now officially implemented. Currently, smelters must reapply annually, and the approval process is becoming stricter. While this measure reduces the predictability of multi-year supply, it has effectively curbed speculative over-application of production quotas. 2. Downstream development policy (Hilirisasi) This drives Indonesia’s transformation from an exporter of raw materials and refined ingots into a producer of high-value-added finished products, retaining profits domestically. The policy is a key pillar of the current government’s national development philosophy and falls under the President’s eight core governance goals (Asta Cita). Indonesia has streamlined regulatory rules for the export of industrial tin products, covering raw material procurement and product technical standards, thereby promoting the domestic production and export of high-end tin products such as tin solder, tin chemicals, tin powder, and tin plate. 3. Designating tin as a critical strategic mineral Tin has been elevated to a strategic status concerning national resilience and security, ensuring long-term domestic supply for key industries such as EVs and electronics. Legal basis: the Presidential Regulation on the Governance of Critical and Strategic Minerals, currently under development. With tin classified as a critical strategic mineral, mining supervision becomes stricter, and the central government gains the highest authority over production control. This has accelerated the downstreamization of Indonesia’s tin industry and, together with tightening global supply, has at times driven a significant rise in tin prices. 4. Establishing a benchmark price for tin ore This creates a fair, standardized price floor for domestic tin ore transactions in Indonesia, ensuring optimal state revenue (royalties) while securing reasonable income for local miners/partners. Legal basis: an ESDM ministerial regulation, under development. The policy can eliminate low-ball pricing and malicious push for lower prices among local miners, partners, and smelters. Domestic ore transaction prices are set with reference to public international benchmarks such as the London Metal Exchange, the Indonesia Commodity Exchange, and the Jakarta Futures Exchange, and are adjusted based on local actual costs. 5. Single export gateway policy for strategic commodities Strategic commodities must go through a designated unified gateway/trading platform for centralized export business, enabling whole-process compliance supervision, traceable flows, and ensuring full payment of taxes and royalties. Legal basis: joint regulations formulated by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Trade, currently under development. Export business is handled exclusively through the state-designated institution — Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia — which may weaken the role of domestic private enterprises in the export process.

[SMM Morning Meeting Notes: Tin Prices in Tug of War Between Demand Expectations Outside China and Weak Domestic Spot Uptake]

SHFE tin opened the week with a rally in full swing, pushing prices to within striking distance of an all-time high, primarily driven by supply-side disruptions and the computing power theme. In the last two days, however, the market suddenly reversed course, with prices pulling back sharply in a broad decline that completely erased the week’s earlier gains. What changed in the market’s trading logic? Rise and Fall on the Same Catalyst: Semiconductor Stocks Pull Back As the iteration of large AI models advances and high-end computing power chips are upgraded, the amount of solder required in their production increases. This year, tin’s label as a computing-power metal has continued to strengthen. Amid the AI frenzy, semiconductor indices outside China maintained a sustained rally, which not only boosted demand expectations for tin but also significantly benefited tin prices through the stock-futures linkage effect. However, heights breed danger. After a parabolic surge, chip stocks repeatedly hit new highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index components recently traded at 26 times forward 12-month earnings, well above the 10-year average of 21 times. The AI space became increasingly crowded, and market disagreement grew over the rally’s sustainability. Going forward, whether AI demand effectively spreads and the earnings performance of chip leaders have become the market’s center of focus. The newly released revenue of chipmaker Broadcom missed expectations, cooling the AI fervour to some extent. Overnight, chip stocks suffered a collective sell-off, and today the South Korean stock market plunged, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling sharply. Against the backdrop of a significant pullback in semiconductor stocks, tin prices were inevitably dragged down, leading the decline in China’s commodity futures market today. The market is now assessing whether AI infrastructure investment has already overdrawn future growth expectations, though some investors remain optimistic. Yesterday, the US Nasdaq index opened lower but rebounded to largely recoup its losses by the close. The overall market style displayed a rotation of funds rather than a mass exodus, making it difficult to argue that the bullish expectations for future semiconductor stocks have completely dissipated. Overseas Central Bank Policy Expectations Turn Hawkish, Liquidity Concerns Intensify Recent US-Iran negotiations have seen repeated developments, but judging by the overall trend in precious and base metals, the market largely ignored the short-term headline noise. The overall trend remained under pressure, mainly weighed down by liquidity concerns. Market expectations for the timing of potential interest rate hikes by European and US central banks are being pulled forward, with multiple factors reinforcing this view. On one hand, US economic data showed resilience. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, a near four-year high and the fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. Some employment data showed improvement, and the labour market maintained its characteristic of "low hiring, low layoffs," providing ample justification for a policy shift. On the other hand, US inflationary pressures are evident. Both the PCE price index and the US Fed’s Beige Book indicated that cooling consumption and rising price pressures have emerged simultaneously across multiple sectors. Uptick in inflation is tightening the outlook for monetary policy. In addition, the overall stance of US Fed officials has turned hawkish. The minutes from the April Federal Reserve meeting showed that the internal assessment has shifted, from previously expecting interest rate cuts later in the year to a greater inclination to maintain current rate levels for an extended period, and even not ruling out a further increase in borrowing costs. Recently, several officials also released hiking signals, stating that if inflation remains persistently high, the possibility of further policy tightening cannot be ruled out. Fundamentals Have Not Shifted, Supply-Side Support Remains Overall, the sharp pullback in SHFE tin over the latest two days was mainly dragged down by liquidity risk and a cooling of the AI frenzy. Tin prices have always exhibited high elasticity. Currently, the futures price has only given back the gains of the preceding two days, with the center not yet moving further downward, which indirectly reflects that support from the tin market’s supply-demand structure still exists. Currently, traditional demand-side tracks remain subdued, while the emerging computing power engine remains robust. Marginal growth keeps demand expectations for the tin market bullish, while ongoing supply-side disruptions bring more upward momentum. Recently, key producing regions including Myanmar, the DRC, and Indonesia have all seen varying degrees of disturbance. Specifically, supply recovery in Myanmar has been slow, hampered by operational restrictions, material approvals, and accidents. The Goma border crossing in the DRC was previously closed due to an Ebola outbreak, raising market concerns about supply disruptions. Indonesia’s export policy outlook carries high uncertainty, with the overall policy direction showing a persistently tightening trend, reflecting deeper resource nationalism and the bottleneck of tin ore flows against the backdrop of resource de-globalization. In summary, current inflationary pressures are intensifying, and interest rate hikes by European and US central banks seem to be on the verge of deployment, making it difficult to expect any easing in liquidity. Commodity trends will remain under pressure. However, the computing power theme is unlikely to fizzle out, and mine-side supply growth is limited, which may restrict near-term downside space. The market retains a bullish outlook for SHFE tin over the medium and long term. (Wenhua, Synthesized)

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: China's Tin Market Overall Shows a Pattern of Weak Supply and Demand; Consumption End Has Limited Acceptance of High Prices]

"Tin" Leads the Future: Industrial Transformation and Value Reshaping in a New Cycle Conference Background Currently, the global tin industry stands at a historic turning point, where traditional cyclical logic has been completely disrupted and strategic value has become fully prominent. The tin market in 2026 presents an unprecedented complex pattern and profound transformation: I. Deep Restructuring of the Supply-Demand Pattern with Unprecedented Enhancement of Strategic Attributes The global tin resource static reserve-to-production ratio is only 14 years, with scarcity becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side faces "triple pressures": repeated setbacks in Myanmar's production resumptions, continued tightening of Indonesian policies, and elevated geopolitical risks in the DRC — resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure has undergone fundamental changes, with tin becoming a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing to the digital future. II. Price System Breaking Historical Records with Industrial Ecosystem Facing Reshaping In early 2026, SHFE tin prices broke through 470,000 yuan/mt, hitting a record high. This price breakthrough is not only a reflection of supply-demand imbalance but also a marker of value reassessment for the tin industry. Traditional trade models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration methods all urgently require innovative breakthroughs. III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Catalyzing a New Symbiotic Ecosystem Digitalization and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transformation requires the tin industry to upgrade toward low-carbonisation and circular economy, with recycled tin recovery and green smelting processes becoming an inevitable path. All segments of the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, August 19-21, 2026 in Changsha, Hunan the 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will bring together global industry elites for joint discussions. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, discussing industry development trends with industry peers and jointly driving the tin industry toward new heights. Click the to register immediately, witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and co-create a brilliant new chapter! Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Co., Ltd. was registered and established in December 2017, with its registered address at the West Zone of the Industrial Management Area, Longling Town, Nankang District, Ganzhou City. The company's main businesses include tin metal processing and sales; non-ferrous metal powder and tin by-product production and sales; metal materials, timber construction and decoration, mineral products, and machinery equipment sales; and import and export business of goods and technologies. Since its official registration and establishment in 2017, the company currently focuses on tin ingot and mineral product sales, vigorously expanding upstream and downstream related industries. Its downstream coverage is extensive, serving quality enterprise clients in solar PV, storage battery, electronic solder, tin chemicals, tinplate, tin plated copper wire, tin alloy, and other sectors. Its business partners are primarily distributed across Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and other regions. Committed to achieving rapid, stable, and healthy development of the enterprise. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Industry Co., Ltd. has been engaged in the production and trade of tin and tungsten since 2005 and started tin ingot trade in 2016. Currently, its main business covers the tin raw material industry chain, including tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials. Relying on the business of tin and tungsten production and trade, the company focuses on the trade projects of the tin raw material industry chain, including tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials, and actively expands other new fields and projects. It has established strategic cooperative relationships with domestic ore traders, smelters, logistics and trade agents and service providers, and financial institutions in China. In the future development, the company will innovate trade models, optimize the structure of trade products, and improve the efficiency of the trade process to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. With decades of deep engagement in the tin industry, the company has always adhered to the business principles of people-oriented management and integrity-based operations since its establishment, enabling the enterprise to maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition and achieve rapid and stable development. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Industry Co., Ltd. was registered and established in December 2017, with its registered address at the West District of Longling Industrial Management Zone, Nankang District, Ganzhou City. The company's main business includes tin metal processing and sales; production and sales of non-ferrous metal powder and tin by-products; sales of metal materials, wood for building decoration, mineral products, and mechanical equipment; and import and export of goods and technologies. After its official registration in 2017, the company currently focuses on the sales of tin ingots and mineral products, and is vigorously expanding related upstream and downstream industries. Its downstream coverage is extensive, including high-quality enterprise customers such as solar photovoltaic, storage batteries, electronic soldering, tin chemicals, tinplate, tin-coated copper wire, and tin alloys. The business partners are mainly located in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian. The company is committed to achieving rapid, stable, and healthy development. Ganzhou Yunsheng Tin Industry Co., Ltd. has been engaged in the production and trade of tin and tungsten since 2005 and started tin ingot trade in 2016. Currently, its main business covers the tin raw material industry chain, including tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials. Relying on the business of tin and tungsten production and trade, the company focuses on the trade projects of tin ore, tin ingots, crude tin, and secondary tin materials, and actively expands other new fields and projects. It has established strategic cooperative relationships with domestic mining companies, smelters, logistics and trade agents, service providers, and financial institutions. In the future development, the company will innovate trade models, optimize the structure of trade products, and improve the efficiency of the trade process to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. The company has been deeply involved in the tin industry for decades. Since its establishment, it has always adhered to the business principle of "people-oriented and integrity-based", enabling the company to maintain its competitiveness in the fierce market competition and achieve rapid and stable development. Contact Information Liao Xiaoyun 13766335535 Long Press to Scan the QR Code and Register Now 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference