This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

DCE iron ore futures traded on a strong note today before pulling back slightly near the close, with the most-traded I2609 contract finally closing at 748 yuan/mt, up 0.81% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 8-11 yuan/mt from the day before. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude. Spot trading volume has been moderate so far. Looking ahead, according to the SMM survey, port data for iron ore this period showed slight destocking, with total inventory reaching 148.66 million mt, down 690,000 mt MoM, while port pick-up volume edged down 38,000 mt to 3.23 million mt. The destocking was mainly driven by lower port arrivals. Overall, the iron ore supply side remained ample. On the news front, market rumors were frequent, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts was intense, with no clear divergence emerging yet. With fundamentals and sentiment intertwined, iron ore prices are likely to continue moving sideways in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,231.5/mt, edged up to $13,308/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a low of $13,190/mt, and finally closed at a high of $13,316/mt, up 2.22%. Trading volume was 26,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots, up 306 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,180 yuan/mt, edged up to 102,600 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to touch a low of 101,640 yuan/mt, and closed at 102,260 yuan/mt, up 1.03%. Trading volume was 55,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, down 2,799 lots from the previous session, indicating that bears reduced positions. On the macro front, US PCE data largely met expectations, and the US dollar index halted its three-day rally. Geopolitically, another vessel attack occurred in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned that unauthorized transits are "unacceptable," and Israel denied withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon, which heightened Middle East tensions again and pushed geopolitical risk premiums higher. These factors eased rate hike concerns, and the US dollar stopped rising and pulled back, helping copper prices stabilize and rebound.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,278.5/mt, touched a high of $13,289/mt right after opening, then its center moved downward to hit $12,988/mt, and finally closed at $13,026.5/mt, down 2.59%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, open interest stood at 248,000 lots, a decrease of 4,061 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,200 yuan/mt, edged up slightly to 102,260 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to touch a low of 100,500 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,880 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 93,000 lots, open interest stood at 162,000 lots, an increase of 5,968 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position additions.

According to SMM surveys, although prices from Brazil and Argentina have pulled back slightly, overall price levels remain high. Going forward, the import market will continue to feature diversified sources and persistent differentiation in price spreads by country and product category.

DCE iron ore futures strengthened in the morning and saw a slight correction in the afternoon. The most-traded I2609 contract closed at 744 yuan/mt, up 0.74% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 4-9 yuan/mt from the previous day. Ore trader activity was moderate, with steel mills mainly purchasing for restocking. As of now, spot trading volume was mediocre. Currently, fundamentals side, according to an SMM survey, the daily average hot metal output of sampled steel mills this week was 2.4607 million mt, down 4,300 mt WoW. Pig iron production has entered a turning point, and iron ore demand is expected to weaken going forward. News side, market speculation about iron ore supply tightening has interrupted the short-term bearish sentiment. On balance, iron ore prices may trend sideways in the short term, while remaining bearish over the medium and long term. [SMM Steel]