July 31, 2026 Whenever economic growth begins to weaken, many investors instinctively turn their attention to gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets. Yet reality is more complex than the familiar "safe haven" narrative. While both precious metals tend to benefit from periods of economic uncertainty over the long term, they often follow very different patterns during recessions. Investors who understand these differences can position their portfolios more effectively. Paradoxically, the prices of both gold—and especially silver—often decline during the initial stages of a severe crisis. This is not because investors suddenly lose confidence in precious metals, but because individuals and institutions urgently need liquidity. In times of market stress, investors frequently sell their most liquid assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls or raise cash. History Shows That Liquidity Comes First During the Initial Phase of a Crisis The global financial crisis of 2008 provides a clear example. As the crisis intensified, the gold price fell from nearly US$1,000 to around US$700 per ounce before recovering by year-end and eventually reaching new all-time highs. Silver suffered a much sharper decline, dropping from approximately US$21 to below US$9 per ounce, a decline of more than 50%, while gold lost only about 12% during the same period. A similar pattern emerged during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Both precious metals initially declined sharply, but silver once again proved considerably more volatile, falling from around US$18 to US$12 per ounce within just a few weeks. Gold also weakened but experienced a much more moderate correction. History repeatedly demonstrates that the urgent need for liquidity can temporarily drive down the prices of both gold and silver. Yet it also shows that investors who panic and sell during these periods often miss the powerful recovery that typically follows. Once the Recovery Begins, Silver Historically Outperforms Gold This is where the second—and perhaps most important—historical pattern emerges. During the recovery phase following a recession, silver has historically outperformed gold by a considerable margin. Following the 2008 financial crisis, silver gained approximately 400% from its lows, while gold appreciated by roughly 170%. This outperformance generally begins once the urgent need for liquidity subsides and investors return to risk assets. The same phenomenon occurred after the initial COVID-19 market shock. During 2020, silver advanced by nearly 48%, while gold gained approximately 25%. One of the primary reasons for silver's stronger performance is its dual role. Gold functions primarily as a monetary asset and store of value. Silver, by contrast, combines monetary demand with substantial industrial demand. As economic conditions improve, both sources of demand recover simultaneously, providing additional support for silver prices. Why Gold Performs Well During Recessions Gold benefits from several supportive factors during economic downturns. Central banks typically lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate economic activity, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. At the same time, demand increases for assets without counterparty risk, particularly as confidence in equities, bonds, and sometimes even financial institutions begins to deteriorate. A review of six major U.S. recessions shows that gold prices increased during five of those downturns, declining only modestly during the 1990–1991 recession. There is, however, an important exception. If central banks aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation—as they did in the early 1980s, when U.S. interest rates reached nearly 20%—gold can come under pressure even while the broader economy is contracting. The Great Depression: An Extreme Case A depression differs from a normal recession in both its severity and duration and is often accompanied by deflation. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, the official U.S. gold price remained fixed at US$20.67 per ounce under the gold standard. Gold's ability to preserve wealth therefore appeared not through price appreciation but through its purchasing power. As consumer prices fell by approximately 24%, gold maintained its nominal value, resulting in a significant increase in real purchasing power. In 1934, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt raised the official gold price to US$35 per ounce, effectively increasing its value by approximately 69% overnight. This change resulted from government policy rather than market forces. At roughly the same time, the U.S. government issued Executive Order 6102, requiring private citizens to surrender much of their gold holdings. This historical episode illustrates that during severe depressions characterized by fixed exchange rates or a gold standard, government policy may exert greater influence over precious metals than normal market supply and demand. Similar developments occurred in Europe during the Napoleonic Wars, when Austria, following its defeat at the Battle of Austerlitz, devalued its currency by roughly 80% against gold. What This Means for Investors Several practical lessons emerge from history. First, short-term declines in gold—and particularly in silver—during the early stages of a crisis should not be interpreted as evidence that precious metals have failed. Rather, they reflect the market's temporary scramble for liquidity. Second, investors who maintain long-term holdings of physical gold and silver in the form of coins or bullion have historically benefited disproportionately from the subsequent recovery, with silver generally delivering the stronger rebound. Third, stagflationary environments—where weak economic growth coincides with persistent inflation, as experienced during the 1970s—have historically been particularly favorable for silver because both its monetary and industrial demand tend to strengthen simultaneously. For investors seeking to protect their wealth against the uncertainties of a recession—or even a full-scale depression—gold and silver should therefore be viewed not as short-term speculative trades, but as long-term components of a well-diversified investment portfolio. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-during-a-recession-how-do-precious-metals-really-perform

Xingye Silver&Tin released a progress announcement on July 31 regarding a safety incident at a subsidiary, showing that: On July 30, 2026, Yinman Mining received the On-site Treatment Measures Decision Letter (No. 260 [West] Emergency Decision [2026]) issued by the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the synchronous suspension of Yinman Mining's mineral processing tailings system. As of the disclosure of this announcement, both the mining system and the mineral processing tailings system of Yinman Mining have been suspended. The details of this accident as announced by Xingye Silver&Tin show that: At around 3:30 PM on July 26, 2026, an accident occurred during underground production construction at the mine of the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Xiwuzhumuqin Banner Yinman Mining Co., Ltd., resulting in 1 fatality and no injuries. After the accident, Yinman Mining, in accordance with the On-site Treatment Measures Decision Letter (No. 257 [West] Emergency Decision [2026]) issued by the Xiwuzhumuqin Banner Emergency Management Bureau, suspended the underground mining area. Regarding the impact on the company's production, operations, and performance: Yinman Mining is primarily engaged in the mining, processing, and sales of non-ferrous metals such as silver, tin, copper, lead, and zinc, with a production capacity of 1.65 million mt/year. In 2025, Yinman Mining recorded operating revenue of RMB3,062.0434 million, accounting for 55.12% of the company's total consolidated operating revenue, and achieved net profit of RMB1,346.2785 million. In Q1 2026, it recorded operating revenue of RMB961.5985 million, representing 45.15% of the total, with net profit of RMB474.7488 million. Currently, the cause of the accident and the reason for the fatality are still under investigation. Yinman Mining will fully cooperate with the accident investigation and subsequent work. Since the duration of the suspension at Yinman Mining cannot be determined at this time, the impact of this production halt on the company's current and full-year performance cannot be accurately estimated for now. The company will, in accordance with relevant regulations, fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner based on the progress of the accident investigation. Investors are advised to be cautious about investment risks. Performance: Xingye Silver&Tin's 2025 annual report shows that in 2025, the company realized operating revenue of RMB5,555.2536 million, a YoY increase of 30.09%; total profit of RMB2,096.237 million, up 18.75% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed company of RMB1,704.2393 million, rising 11.40% YoY. Xingye Silver&Tin's announcement shows that in 2025, the breakdown of operating revenue from the company's main mineral products as a share of overall operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver (RMB2,175.7825 million, 39.17%); ore-derived tin (RMB1,649.6398 million, 29.70%); ore-derived zinc (RMB975.8673 million, 17.57%); ore-derived lead (RMB220.945 million, 3.98%); ore-derived iron (RMB180.3799 million, 3.25%); ore-derived copper (RMB133.0043 million, 2.39%); ore-derived antimony (RMB100.3568 million, 1.81%); ore-derived gold (RMB82.3402 million, 1.48%); and ore-derived bismuth (RMB16.6744 million, 0.30%). Among these, the combined operating revenue from ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver accounted for 68.86%. Regarding the company's main business and key performance drivers, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large mining group primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, and processing of non-ferrous metals and precious metals. As of the disclosure date of this report, the company has over 20 subsidiaries, including 8 producing mining companies: Yinman Mining, Qianjinda Mining, Yubang Mining, Rongguan Mining, Xilin Mining, Rongbang Mining, Ruineng Mining, and Bosheng Mining; Atlantic Tin's Achmmach tin mine under AtlasTinSAS is in the construction phase; Tanghe Era Mining is in suspension; Yitong Mining and Yunnan Xigui are in the exploration stage. Hainan Fund is mainly engaged in equity investment management; Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) focuses on metal and mining trade, corporate mergers and acquisitions, and is responsible for expanding markets outside China and acquiring high-quality overseas mineral resources; Hainan Guomao and Tianjin Guomao mainly handle the sales of non-ferrous metal mineral products and the procurement of some raw materials; Xingye Ruijin conducts process research, technology R&D, and upgrading in areas such as exploration, mining and processing, and comprehensive tailings recycling. Tibet Shannan Antimony-Gold, Tibet Xinda Mining, and Xing'an Meng Fuxingtun Mining serve as the company's regional resource integration platforms. During the reporting period, the company successfully acquired an 85% equity stake in Yubang Mining. According to data from the World Silver Institute as of the end of 2023, Yubang Mining's single silver mine ranks first in Asia and fifth globally. This acquisition further strengthened the company's resource advantages, laying a solid resource foundation for sustainable development. Meanwhile, through its subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong), the company increased investment in overseas mineral resources, successfully acquiring a 100% equity interest in Atlantic Tin. This acquisition was a key step in implementing the company's 'going global' strategy. Based on the tin mine classification criteria for large mines in the Standard for Classification of Mineral Resource/Reserve Scales (DZ/T0400-2022), the Achmmach tin mine owned by Atlantic Tin is now equivalent to five large deposits. Through this integration of overseas tin resources, the company has further perfected its international tin layout and secured important strategic resources for long-term development. The company's main performance is derived from non-ferrous metal mining and processing operations. During the reporting period, revenue from this sector accounted for 99.64% of total 2025 operating revenue. Key factors influencing the performance of the mining and processing segment include production and sales volumes of main products, market prices, and the cost of non-ferrous metal and precious metal mining and processing operations. For the business plan, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the final year of the company's '23' plan. The board of directors will closely follow the theme of high-quality development, fully implement the set work targets, continuously deepen the concept of 'trust and synergy,' and go all out to achieve the closing goals of the '23' plan. Key tasks are as follows: 1. Uphold safety and environmental protection bottom lines, use 2026, the 'Year of Safety Management Implementation,' as a lever to fully consolidate safety responsibilities, reinforce the achievements of the 'Year of Collective Safety Calm,' enhance risk anticipation and process control, and strictly prevent safety and environmental accidents to achieve safe, stable, green, and low-carbon development. 2. Comprehensively advance the construction of key projects, strengthen whole-process management of project budgeting, progress, and quality, and coordinate the implementation of projects such as Yinman Mining's 2.97 million mt expansion, Yubang Mining's 8.25 million mt expansion, the Morocco project, and the Budunyin'gen Mining (managed) project to ensure timely completion and full production, releasing capacity benefits. 3. Continuously intensify exploration and reserve expansion efforts, balance production operations with geological exploration, steadily advance exploration at existing mines and surrounding areas, accelerate resource upgrade to reserves, and constantly consolidate the resource base. 4. Deepen industrial synergy and resource integration, leveraging Inner Mongolia's core regional advantages to gradually expand overseas resource deployment; persist in focusing on silver and tin as main business directions, enriching and optimizing resource varieties. Steadily advance subsequent acquisitions and integration of Weiling Co., actively track high-quality mineral project opportunities in China and overseas, and enhance overall competitiveness through synergistic industrial mergers and acquisitions. 5. Further strengthen institutional enforcement and internal control management, ensure that all systems, processes, and management requirements are implemented effectively, and improve the company's refined management level; strengthen enforcement capacity, ensure that production plans, comprehensive budgets, and work deployments are fully carried out, and promote deep integration of corporate culture with business management. 6. Fully promote preparations for Hong Kong stock listing, accelerate the establishment of dual capital market platforms at home and abroad, enhance cross-border capital operation capabilities, provide stronger financial support for resource integration and strategy implementation, and elevate the company's high-quality sustainable development to a new level. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report for this year disclosed that in January-March 2026, the company realized operating revenue of RMB2,129.8691 million, an 85.32% YoY increase; net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB1,337.6722 million, up 257.32% YoY. As of March 31, 2026, total assets were RMB19,688.8316 million, with net assets attributable to shareholders at RMB10,825.4666 million. Revenue breakdown: In January-March 2026, the revenue share of the company's main mineral products was as follows: ore-derived silver (RMB1,410.1104 million, 66.21%); ore-derived tin (RMB234.0354 million, 10.99%); ore-derived zinc (RMB228.1249 million, 10.71%); ore-derived lead (RMB71.8509 million, 3.37%); ore-derived antimony (RMB53.1029 million, 2.49%); ore-derived gold (RMB51.0181 million, 2.40%); ore-derived iron (RMB44.1733 million, 2.07%); ore-derived copper (RMB35.6489 million, 1.67%); and ore-derived indium (RMB524,100, 0.02%). Among these, the combined revenue from ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver accounted for 77.19%. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report announcement stated: Operating profit for the current period increased by 238.16% compared to the previous period, total profit was up by 236.36%, and net profit attributable to the parent company's owners rose by 257.32%. The main reasons: In the reporting period, selling prices of the company's main mineral products such as silver and tin rose YoY; Yubang Mining's capacity gradually released, with a significant YoY increase in the production and sales of ore-derived silver; and a gain of RMB321 million was realized from the transfer of a 60% equity stake in Shuangyuan Nonferrous. Huaxi Securities' July 25 research report believed that: Silver's macro logic is similar to that of gold, while also possessing stronger industrial attributes, and its price is driven by a resonance of fundamental, policy, and market factors. From the core support perspective, silver's inclusion in the US 'critical minerals' list has triggered sustained capital attention and hoarding effects, becoming a key policy catalyst for price increases. Although short-term demand has pulled back, the supply-side gap remains prominent, serving as the core fundamental support for silver prices. It is expected that in the coming years, the silver supply-demand gap will continue to widen. Combined with industrial recovery demand amid an easing cycle, silver's price elasticity is significantly higher than gold's, and it is likely to rise given the resonance of a loose environment and industrial demand, with a bullish long-term outlook on silver prices. The current silver sector is in a phase of pulling back and consolidating at lows; although weighed down in the short term by US dollar strength and delayed rate cut expectations, it still offers value for medium and long-term positioning. Beneficiary stocks of silver: [Shengda Resources], [Xingye Silver&Tin].

[SMM Daily Review: Weaker Dollar and Cooling PCE Resonate, Silver Price Continues to Consolidate at Lows] SMM July 31 News: The dollar plunged below 100, PCE cooled, but conditions for a trend shift in rate hikes were not met, and silver prices consolidated. Spot cargo supply and demand were both weak at month-end, transactions were sluggish. Attention is on next month's maintenance and demand recovery.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver N-shaped consolidation ended flat this week amid repeated tug-of-war between geopolitical and interest rate hike expectations] Silver prices showed an N-shaped trend this week. At the start of the week, ceasefire expectations pushed prices up. Subsequently, the hawkish US Fed held rates steady, combined with repeated Middle East tensions, and silver prices consolidated to close at 14,286 yuan/kg. Spot silver supply and demand were both weak, and transactions remained at parity. On the inventory front, total social inventory accumulated to 3,658 mt, while ETF open interest edged down. Short-term, it is expected to move sideways with a downward bias.

Maronan Metals said its Northwest Queensland silver-lead-copper-gold project is progressing from a Scoping Study toward a pre-feasibility study. The Scoping Study covered less than 25% of the global resource in the Starter Zone and outlined a 1.2 Mtpa operation with a 10-year mine life and approximately A$260 million of capital expenditure. It generated an NPV8 of A$377 million at a silver price of A$36/oz. The company estimates project NPV at about A$750 million at current spot silver prices, but this remains a company estimate subject to further resource definition, engineering and permitting. A 40,000 m infill drilling program is nearly 25% complete, with about 10,000 m drilled. Maronan expects a resource update before the end of the financial year, followed by a PFS and its first ore reserve around the middle of next year. Metallurgical test work has returned lead and silver recoveries above 90%, with lead concentrate grading above 70% lead and containing at least 1,500 g/t silver. An exploration decline has been permitted, while the planned mining-lease application is targeted for year-end; the decline development itself is not yet fully funded.

[SMM Daily Review: US Fed Hawkish Hold, Silver Rebounds but Encounters Resistance] SMM July 30 – The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged but saw a rare three dissenting votes in favor of a hike. A weakening US dollar and escalating geopolitical risks drove silver prices to rebound. However, expectations of further rate hikes persist, limiting upside room. Spot supply and demand are both weak, with muted transactions.