According to precious metals and refinery services provider Heraeus, the gold price continues to show a consolidation phase. Following record highs at the end of December, the market is currently moving sideways within a clearly defined trading range rather than forming a pronounced upward or downward trend.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors such as US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts, with silver prices showing a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the close on February 23, London spot silver settled at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% from the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13. Due to the drag from pre-holiday US stock declines and weakening liquidity, overseas precious metals continued their decline at the beginning of last week, with silver and platinum once falling below the 60-day moving average and gold losing the 20-day moving average. Subsequently, as the US announced that the Q4 GDP growth rate fell short of expectations, precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. After the US Supreme Court ruled to revoke most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on globally imported goods to the US within the next 150 days, market concerns over trade conflicts and economic downturn were reignited. Coupled with the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations potentially worsening the Middle East situation, which stimulated safe-haven demand, precious metals surged significantly during the session and recovered previous losses, with silver leading the gains. During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, refined silver supply from copper, lead, and zinc smelters mainly maintained stable production, while large-scale downstream enterprises such as silver nitrate and alloy manufacturers generally suspended operations for the holiday. Except for a few small and medium-sized silver-based material, jewelry, and some industrial users processing urgent orders normally, downstream consumption temporarily stalled due to holiday factors and the high silver price and premium market conditions. Although multiple smelters mentioned accumulated in-factory inventory after the holiday, compared to previous years, the destocking speed for the accumulated inventory after the 2026 holiday was faster. Some manufacturers transferred in-factory inventory to social warehouses on the first day after the holiday and prepared for delivery or sold directly at market premiums. Smelter in-factory inventory levels are expected to gradually decrease to safe levels. Looking ahead this week, although import tariffs on investment-grade gold and silver are exempted, the policy's impact on US dollar assets and its boost to precious metal allocation demand will both benefit gold and silver prices. The market will further price in the impact of Trump's tariffs. In the spot market, physical investment demand for precious metals may again see stockpiling and rush to buy amid continuous price rises. Some downstream enterprises expect to purchase physical goods from the exchange after the delivery of the SHFE February contract ends, thus cautiously watching the high premium quotes for circulating supplies after the holiday. Additionally, it is worth noting that the significant volatility in silver prices in early 2026 and the hedging liquidity pressure brought by the exchange's raised margins have prompted intermediate silver-containing material processing manufacturers to weigh between maintaining customer relationships with orders at breakeven or even small losses and halting production to stop losses. Although downstream enterprises resumed normal operations after the holiday, most industrial enterprises basically did not take new orders during the holiday. Post-holiday orders for silver nitrate and electronic/electrical intermediate processing products are expected to be average. Spot transactions are mainly driven by investment demand, with jewelry and investment silver bar processing recovering quickly. Industrial consumption end-users currently have low acceptance of the significantly increased prices and post-holiday spot premiums, thus placing orders relatively cautiously. After the holiday, the precious metals market is partially hot but overall sluggish. Besides macro disturbances and geopolitical changes, subsequent attention should still be paid to premium changes after the delivery of the SHFE front-month contract and whether low inventory in overseas COMEX will again cause price anomalies.

In early June, silver prices surged sharply amid multiple bullish factors, breaking out of the previous rangebound fluctuation pattern. On June 5, London spot silver soared 4.5% in a single day, breaching the $36/oz mark and reaching its highest level since February 2012. The cumulative weekly gain exceeded 9% (compared to just 0.6% for gold over the same period).

Market Movement - Silver Prices Surge to New Highs In early June, driven by multiple positive factors, silver prices rose sharply, breaking out of the previous rangebound fluctuation pattern. On June 5, London spot silver surged 4.5% in a single day, breaking through the $36/oz mark and reaching its highest level since February 2012, with a cumulative weekly gain exceeding 9% (compared to gold's 0.6% gain over the same period). Domestically, the most-traded SHFE silver contract reached a record high of 8,804 yuan/kg, while A-share silver concept stocks (such as Hunan Silver and Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd.) all hit their daily limits. Currently, the gold-silver ratio stands at 85-90 (i.e., 1 oz of gold ≈ 90 oz of silver), significantly higher than the 40-50 average over the past 50 years. Some market traders believe that silver is severely undervalued relative to gold. Based on the historical pattern of the gold-silver ratio reverting to its mean after a crisis, the current silver price rally is poised to ignite. 1. Concentrated Macro Catalysts In terms of macro news, the steel and aluminum tariff issue and the Eurozone's interest rate cut jointly contributed to the significant rise in silver prices. On one hand, on June 3, Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4. The market feared that critical metals like silver could be the next target. Previously, on May 30, Trump had already expressed related expectations at a rally in Pennsylvania and posted about it on social media. On June 2, London spot silver prices broke through the oscillation range for the first time, reaching $34.774/oz. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in China, domestic spot silver TD prices opened higher with a gap at 8,500 yuan/mt after the holiday (on June 3). On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its interest rate decision on the evening of June 5, cutting the three key interest rates by 25 basis points. This marked the eighth interest rate cut since June 2024. The current deposit facility rate was lowered from 4% to 2%. The Eurozone economy faces downside risks, and the ECB may increase monetary easing efforts in H2. These factors bolstered bullish confidence in the silver market, leading to a second high open and upward trend in silver prices. Additionally, factors such as the contraction in the US service sector, slowing employment, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and tensions in the Middle East have indirectly boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals, though not enough to solely trigger a significant rally in silver prices. 2. Technical Momentum and Capital Enthusiasm Follow Technically, after breaking through the key technical resistance level of $34.8/oz, silver triggered program trading to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, with capital enthusiasm following suit. The next target level is projected to be $38-40/oz. As of June 9, silver ETF open interest increased from 13,900 mt on May 16 to 14,700 mt, a gain of nearly 6%, indicating strong market enthusiasm for silver. Hedge funds reduced their long positions in gold and shifted them to silver, further driving a significant rally in spot silver prices. 3. Industrial demand supports the destocking trend of silver bars Looking ahead, the supply-demand gap in the global silver market is expected to continue widening in 2025. Despite a slowdown in the growth of industrial demand, the supply of refined silver is constrained by mineral raw materials and recycling technology, and the total global inventory of silver bars will remain dominated by destocking. Previous tariff concerns led to a significant transfer of spot silver bars to the New York market, and currently, both London and domestic spot silver inventories are at their lowest levels in nearly three years. Trend Outlook In June, market sentiment is leaning towards the bullish side, and favourable macro front factors are expected to continue supporting silver prices to rise, with silver prices likely to remain in a state of upward fluctuation in the short term. Against the backdrop of easing crises and the gradual realization of interest rate cut expectations, the performance of the silver market is expected to outperform that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio may also experience a correction and recovery. However, following the rise in silver prices, downstream enterprises are generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, only making small purchases on dips and actively negotiating prices, with spot premiums pulling back from highs. Meanwhile, it is necessary to remain vigilant against potential impacts such as an unexpectedly delayed interest rate cut by the US Fed, a contraction in profits and a decline in production in the PV end-use product sector. 》View SMM Precious Metals Spot Quotes

As US President Trump wielded the "tariff stick" indiscriminately and economic and geopolitical uncertainties continued to disrupt the market, an interesting phenomenon emerged: super-rich individuals were increasingly turning their attention to the safer option of physical gold, transferring it overseas, with Singapore emerging as a popular destination. The reason is simple: Singapore is home to "The Reserve," a colossal vault standing at 32 meters tall. According to Gregor Gregersen, the founder of "The Reserve," from the beginning of this year until April, the precious metals storage facility received 88% more orders for gold and silver compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, data provided by the company also showed that sales of gold and silver bars soared by 200% YoY during the same period. Industry observers believe that this trend is driven by growing unease. Gregersen stated, "Many very high-net-worth clients are concerned about tariffs, changes in the world, and the possibility of geopolitical instability. Today, storing physical metals in a safe jurisdiction like Singapore is becoming a major trend." He added that 90% of the new orders came from outside Singapore. It is understood that "The Reserve" spans 180,000 square feet, boasting not only a vast scale but also integrating high-tech security systems, capable of accommodating a vast quantity of precious metals, including 10,000 mt of silver and 500 mt of gold. Some commentators have noted that the storage capacity of this six-story vault is impressive enough to shake the entire financial world. Physical Gold Becomes a "Hot Commodity" In recent months, due to geopolitical tensions, gold prices have surged rapidly, hitting record highs. Although they have pulled back somewhat after the easing of Sino-US trade frictions, some market observers still believe that gold prices could climb to $5,000 per ounce next year. Gregersen said that wealthy individuals are increasingly choosing physical gold bars over "paper gold trading" because they do not want to bear significant price risks. While storing and holding physical gold is not entirely free from price risks, it limits certain risks associated with "paper gold." Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group, a gold dealer, said that an increasing number of clients investing in gold are requesting to have physical gold delivered to them. He estimated that the proportion of clients insisting on holding physical gold has surged from 20% in past years to 70%. Analysts point out that physical gold has unique advantages compared to other investment options. It has no counterparty risk, allowing investors to directly own and control their gold assets. Additionally, physical gold offers a high degree of privacy, meeting the wealth protection needs of high-net-worth individuals. Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP, a precious metals refining and trading company, stated that the Silicon Valley Bank crisis that erupted in 2023 also prompted investors to prefer physical ownership or safe allocation of specific gold bars, rather than relying on paper claims or merely holding shares in a pooled reserve—shares that could be at risk if the bank fails. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, similarly pointed out that this is particularly true for those concerned about the health of the global financial system. "Some holders of physical precious metals are cautious about storing gold within the banking system, even in allocated form, and therefore prefer to store it with entities outside the banking system," he added.

According to SMM, in the morning session today, the premiums and discounts for TD warrants of national standard silver bars with spot payment and spot delivery in Shanghai were quoted at 3-4 yuan/kg. Some suppliers with limited inventory were reluctant to sell and were waiting to see how the market developed, offering a premium of 5 yuan/kg against TD. In Shanghai, spot silver bars from large smelters were quoted at a premium of 5-6 yuan/kg against TD or at a discount of 5 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2506 contract. However, actual transactions were relatively sluggish, with some suppliers lowering their premiums and closing deals after negotiations. In South China, smelters offered cargoes self-picked up from production site at a discount of 8 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2506 contract. Downstream buyers were cautious and made just-in-time procurement in small quantities, resulting in generally sluggish market transactions. 》Check SMM's spot quotes for precious metals