[Production Under Pressure, Marginal Supply Reduction, Structural Trend Divergence in Silicon Metal]: The silicon metal industry chain exhibited a clear gaming pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises faced cash flow losses, and a small number undertook maintenance and production halts; however, the limited actual cuts had no directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises showed a strong inclination to hold prices firm and were unwilling to lower quotes to boost orders, while the industry’s in-factory inventory showed an accumulating trend. In the midstream, social inventory destocked continuously in recent weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets saw improved transaction activity at low futures prices, and inventory in the trade circulation segment continued to destock. The tightening of circulating supply drove the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, and spot silicon metal was more resistant to declines than futures.

Italy's ferrous scrap market moved sideways in March as geopolitical tensions pushed up energy costs and disrupted logistics. Steelmill demand held steady, keeping prices stable. Turkey drove scrap up around US$20/mt in late March; Spain followed with two rises of approx. €10/mt. Stainless scrap saw a two-phase trend, stabilizing below peak levels. European mills resisted basic pig iron price hikes, preferring scrap to control costs. Ferroalloys remained stable, though European ferrosilicon output contracted on rising energy costs. Overall, Assofermet flags caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty, logistics strain, geopolitical tensions, and CBAM adaptation.

[Market Sentiment Cautious, Silicon Metal Spot Prices Held Steady]: Silicon metal spot prices remained stable this week, with the most-traded futures contract fluctuating within the range of 8,600–8,900 yuan/mt. As of January 22, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was priced at 9,200–9,300 yuan/mt, #441 silicon at 9,300–9,500 yuan/mt, and #421 silicon at 9,500–9,800 yuan/mt, all flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract closed at 8,825 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 20 yuan/mt from Monday but up 220 yuan/mt from last Friday. Earlier in the week, news circulated about production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang by month-end. Downstream feedback was generally cautious, with seasonal off-season demand compounded by year-end declines in end-use demand. Pre-holiday stockpiling orders were not concentrated, leading to moderate market trading activity.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Stalemate in Spot Silicon Metal Prices, Stronger Transaction Center for Modules] Module: Last week, domestic module prices continued to rise, with enterprise guidance prices repeatedly hitting new highs. However, high-priced shipments were limited, and recently distributors began entering the market to sell previously low-priced inventory, slightly curbing the rise in the transaction center. In the centralized sector, there were basically no transactions, with pre-holiday demand extremely low. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.732 Yuan/W, 0.748 Yuan/W, and 0.756 Yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.689 Yuan/W and 0.709 Yuan/W, respectively.

[Spot Silicon Metal Basically Stable, Wafer Enterprises Raised Quotations]: Spot silicon metal prices were largely stable this week, with prices for some specifications rising slightly. As of December 25, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW, while #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, on December 25, the most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,835 yuan/mt, up 190 yuan/mt WoW. Futures prices fluctuated upward this week. The willingness to sell and shipments from some silicon enterprises in the north increased WoW; however, as the current price still fell short of their expectations, overall trading volume remained limited. Downstream users made just-in-time procurement, while overseas users' recent inquiries and transactions were relatively weak, leading spot prices to consolidate steadily.

SMM's monthly production data for various metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.