India’s average daily maximum power demand increased by approximately 9.4% year on year during the first half of August 2026, while total electricity generation rose by around 7.6%. Renewable generation surged by approximately 39% to 17.3 TWh, but hydropower output fell by around 17% to 11 TWh, requiring coal-fired generation to increase by approximately 6% to 58.1 TWh. Higher coal-fired output accelerated the drawdown of power plant inventories. Coal stocks monitored by the Central Electricity Authority declined from 38.01 mnt on 31 July to 34.71 mnt on 16 August, a reduction of approximately 3.31 mnt, or nearly 9%. However, the number of plants with critical stocks increased only from 31 to 32, while daily coal receipts of around 2.42 mnt on 16 August marginally exceeded consumption of approximately 2.40 mnt. The situation therefore indicates localised logistical and inventory pressure rather than a nationwide coal shortage.

SMM learned that the accelerated promotion of office AI agents has driven a climb in demand for inference computing power, resulting in a market shortage that urgently needs domestic inference computing power to fill the gap. SMM believes that the large-scale deployment of office AI agents is opening up growth space for inference computing power, providing an entry window for domestic AI computing cards.

[SMM Research] This study looks at South Africa's Bushveld Complex, the region behind most of the world's Platinum. It covers where the belt is, what comes out of it, who mines it, why it matters and what the years ahead may hold.

President Hakainde Hichilema’s re-election provides greater policy continuity for Zambia’s mining sector, but the focus is now shifting from investment commitments and macroeconomic stabilisation toward whether the country can translate its expanding copper project pipeline into sustained production growth.​ Official results confirmed Hichilema’s second-term victory on August 18, with around 60% of the vote. For mining investors, the result reduces uncertainty around the policy direction that has underpinned Zambia’s recent push to attract capital into copper and other strategic minerals.​ Zambia is targeting annual copper production of 3 million tonnes by 2031, nearly triple current output levels. The strategy depends on a combination of brownfield expansions, new mine developments and continued exploration, making execution over the next several years critical to determining whether the target can be achieved.​ The main constraint is increasingly infrastructure rather than geological potential. Mining companies have highlighted electricity availability as one of the most important risks to future production growth, with industry estimates indicating that roughly 2,000 MW of additional power capacity will be required to support the planned expansion of the mining sector.​ Climate risk adds further complexity. Zambia’s heavy dependence on hydropower leaves the system exposed to weak rainfall and reservoir inflows, while the developing 2026–27 El Niño raises the possibility of renewed pressure on electricity supply. Reuters notes that previous drought-related shortages constrained mining activity and remain an important risk to the country’s copper-growth outlook.​ From a copper-market perspective, Hichilema’s second term therefore represents a transition from policy continuity to delivery. Zambia has attracted renewed mining investment and built a substantial project pipeline, but reaching the 3 million-tonne target will depend on whether new mines and expansions can be brought online alongside sufficient power, infrastructure and financing.​The next phase of Zambia’s copper story will therefore be measured less by announced investment and more by actual tonnes produced.

Over the next decade (2026-2035), the combined market share of the three traditional major lithium producers Australia, China and Chile is expected to keep declining as emerging suppliers scale up, with Zimbabwe and Argentina identified as the key sources of new supply. Zimbabwe, in particular, is likely to lead a new round of African lithium expansion, according to a latest research report. Strong H1 momentum, supported by storage demand. China's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price stood at around 153,950 yuan/mt (approx. USD 21,500/mt) on August 17, after a rally of more than 130% from the June 2025 low of 58,400 yuan/mt. The 2026 forecast for China lithium carbonate has been revised up to USD 20,100/t and lithium hydroxide monohydrate to USD 19,600/t, reflecting that H1 momentum. Prices are expected to ease in H2 as smelter maintenance ends and supply returns, but storage demand is limiting the downside market balances now point to month-on-month destocking through H2 2026, with some analysts projecting the year's price peak in late Q3/early Q4. From ore exporter to processor enforced by policy. Zimbabwe’s rise is no longer just a forecast. On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe's mining ministry banned all exports of lithium raw ore and concentrates with immediate effect, forcing miners to build local processing capacity. Zimbabwe's output was expected to reach ~200,000 t LCE in 2026 (up over 15% year on year), equal to ~10% of global primary lithium supply and ~17% of global spodumene supply before the ban; the restriction is estimated to affect around 12,000 t LCE of monthly supply. Key projects include: 1) Huayou Cobalt's Arcadia ~70,000-80,000 t LCE of mine output expected in 2026, with its 50,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant commissioned in Q1 2026 and now ramping up; 2) Sinomine's Bikita ~60,000-70,000 t LCE expected in 2026, with a 30,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant slated for 2027; 3) Chengxin's Sabi Star (~35,000 t LCE) and Yahua's Kamativi (~50,000 t LCE) rounding out a Chinese-invested project portfolio totaling roughly 230,000 t LCE. 4) In 2025, Zimbabwe shipped over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China about 15% of China's total imports making it a supply source Beijing's supply chain cannot easily replace. 2026 is the last investment peak of this cycle global lithium supply is projected to rise ~30% year on year to over 2.1 million t LCE in 2026, concentrated in China and Africa (Africa alone adding ~140,000 t to reach ~380,000 t LCE). Chinese output hit 970,000 t of lithium carbonate in 2025, with new additions this year from Qinghai/Tibet salt lakes, Sichuan spodumene and Jianxiawo's expected restart in H2. Australia shipped 158,000 t of spodumene to China in the week of August 10-16 alone. But few new projects are lined up beyond 2027 a key reason sentiment has flipped from glut to deficit: Morgan Stanley now forecasts an 80,000 t LCE global deficit for 2026, UBS sees a 22,000 t shortfall, versus a 61,000 t surplus in 2025. EVs slow, storage takes the wheel. Global lithium demand growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2026 (from 18.5% in 2025), with passenger EV sales growth falling to 3.9% (vs 22.8% in 2025 and 24% in 2024) as China's trade-in subsidies end and the US IRA rollback bites. Energy storage is now the core demand pillar: storage-sector lithium demand is forecast to jump ~55-74% in 2026, lifting its share of total lithium demand from 23% to ~31%. LFP batteries account for over 90% of battery storage applications and more than half of global EV battery installations; China's LFP cell makers reported hot August orders with output up ~5% month on month. China's NEV penetration hit 58.5% in June above 50% for the third straight month. Battery manufacturing investment in China grew 23% in January-July 2026. Risks. Lithium remains in a "tug-of-war" between supply-release concerns and storage-driven demand support, with risks skewed to the downside: a sustained price recovery could trigger rapid restarts (curtailed capacity covering 750,000+ t of concentrate sits near a ~USD 1,200/t restart cost line), sodium-ion substitution becomes economic if cell prices stay above ~0.4 yuan/Wh, and rising energy costs plus a potential sulfur shortage could squeeze miners' margins. Longer term, battery chemistry innovation and recycling could cut lithium intensity and expand secondary supply reshaping the opportunity window for emerging producers like Zimbabwe. SMM View: Zimbabwe's February export ban has turned the "move down the value chain" story from intention into policy reality Chinese invested projects at Arcadia and Bikita are now the country's only guaranteed export channels via lithium sulphate, and the roughly 12,000 t LCE/month of disrupted supply was a direct catalyst in this year's price rally above 150,000 yuan/mt. The report's core thesis a declining share for Australia, China and Chile, with Africa gaining is being validated in real time, Africa adds ~140,000 t LCE of supply in 2026, the largest increment after China. But Zimbabwe's ramp-up pace, its ability to keep sulphate exports flowing, and downstream pricing power remain the key variables determining whether it can fully deliver on its market-share ambitions

Mainland Chinese lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide monohydrate average price forecasts for 2026 have been revised up to $20,100/t and $19,600/t respectively, reflecting H1 price strength. Prices are expected to soften in H2, but robust energy storage demand should limit downside, with uncertainty over CATL's Jianxiawo mine restart also capping bearish sentiment. Global lithium demand growth is projected to slow to 5.8% y/y in 2026 from 18.5% in 2025, tracking a deceleration in global passenger EV sales growth (BEV+PHEV) to 3.9% y/y from 22.8% in 2025. China remains the core demand driver: domestic NEV sales rose 23.6% y/y to 1.6 million units in June, with NEV penetration holding at a record 58.5% of new-vehicle sales for a third straight month as incentive withdrawal and structural pressures push the market into a more mature growth phase. Elevated fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict are lending incremental support to electrified and hybrid powertrain demand. On supply, global lithium output is forecast to grow 13.2% y/y in 2026, led by Australia and China, with the price recovery supporting restarts of higher-cost Australian capacity despite cost pressure from energy prices and a potential sulphur shortage. The combined share of the top three producers Australia, China, and Chile is expected to decline through 2035 as Argentina and Zimbabwe ramp up output, with Zimbabwe seen as a key driver of African lithium mine development in the coming years. Carbonate's premium over hydroxide is expected to persist on continued LFP adoption, which now accounts for over half of global EV battery installations and more than 90% of battery energy storage capacity. Longer term, lithium-free/reduced-lithium battery chemistries and advances in battery recycling represent structural downside risks to price. SMM View: The revision confirms H1 price resilience rather than a shift in underlying fundamentals current prices remain viewed as elevated relative to fundamentals, with H2 risk skewed to the downside. For African supply, Zimbabwe's role in the coming decade's shift away from the traditional top three producers aligns with its ongoing sulphate/hydroxide integration build-out; continued execution would further strengthen Africa's position in the global lithium supply structure.