SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Today, export FOB prices for rebar rose slightly by about USD 2/tonne. According to market traders, inquiry activity was relatively decent, but actual transactions remained average. Some participants also noted that long steel demand in South America has been relatively stable recently, while demand in the Middle East remains weak. Regarding the US–Iran peace agreement, there has been no significant change in order flow so far, and overall market sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. [Billet] Today, export billet offers increased slightly by around USD 2/tonne, with prices at approximately USD 473–476/tonne FOB. Market feedback indicates that countries such as Indonesia and India are actively exporting billets, leading to intensified competition. However, domestic export price advantages are not obvious, as rising production costs are limiting steel mills’ willingness to discount, while traders are also more cautious in taking short positions. As a result, overall transaction activity remained moderate. [HRC] Today, export prices for flat steel products rose by USD 2/tonne day-on-day. Hot-rolled coil transaction prices were in the range of USD 497–506/tonne. Market inquiry activity was moderate, with no significant release of concluded deals. Recently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] Ship-breaking scrap prices in the Alang (Gujarat) market increased by around 3 USD/tonne, with HMS (80:20) assessed at approximately 373 USD/tonne EXW. Semi-finished steel prices remained broadly stable, while finished steel saw a mild correction in the previous trading session. Market sentiment in Alang stayed subdued, as vessel arrivals remained at historically low levels. Strong freight economics continued to incentivize shipowners to extend the operating life of older vessels, limiting scrap inflows. In the near term, Alang scrap prices are expected to remain supported but constrained by tight supply conditions, with further movement largely dependent on vessel arrivals and downstream steel demand. [Thailand] Galvanizing quotes in the Thai market remained stable in the short term, with import offers still around 710 USD/tonne; however, for large-volume firm orders, the market could consider offering a discount of 5-10 USD/tonne. Wire rod quotes were also relatively stable, but some traders had to push up prices by 20 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne due to rising costs. In terms of local market transactions, downstream end-use demand was weak, and actual deals mostly shifted to a "negotiate deal by deal" model. It is expected that in the short term, Thai wire rod and galvanizing prices will hover at highs. Whether prices can subsequently stabilize on a solid footing will mainly depend on the release of downstream firm orders and the final bargaining and concession room offered by sellers under shipment pressure. [South Korea] Facing the approaching rainy season, South Korean builders are racing against time to push forward the final “intensive rush to meet deadlines” for foundation and main structure works, and the upward momentum of finished steel prices has slowed significantly. Today, POSCO’s two core steelworks (Pohang and Gwangyang) simultaneously raised the purchase price of high-quality pig iron scraps/premium steel scrap by 15,000 won/tonne (approximately 9.93 USD/tonne), and medium and light scrap by 10,000 won/tonne (approximately 6.62 USD/tonne), mainly to prevent domestic supply from being snapped up by other EAF steel mills before the off-season arrives. POSCO had no choice but to raise buying prices against the trend to “lock in” domestic spot cargo flows.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,675/mt, then its price center fluctuated downward to a low of $13,611/mt, before fluctuating upward, climbing to $13,729.5/mt near the end of the session, and eventually closed at $13,713.5/mt, up 1.02%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest reached 266,000 lots, an increase of 1,001 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long positions added. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,280 yuan/mt, immediately dipped to 104,250 yuan/mt after opening, then its price center fluctuated upward all the way to a high of 105,050 yuan/mt, and eventually closed at 104,980 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest reached 148,000 lots, a decrease of 1,207 lots from the previous trading day, indicating short positions reduced.

SMM, June 10 – Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt. During the Asian session, the price edged down slightly then fluctuated and recovered. In the European session, it touched a high of $2,001.5/mt. After hitting the high, selling pressure from above was released, and the market quickly turned downward. During the session, it dipped to $1,975/mt. At the close, the price underwent a slight correction and finally settled at $1,981/mt, down $7.5/mt, a decline of 0.38%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,190 yuan/mt. Initially after opening, the price slightly corrected. Then, short-term buying pushed the price slightly higher, reaching a high of 16,195 yuan/mt for this session. After the high, bulls lacked momentum to sustain, bears gradually took control, and the futures fluctuated downward. The price declined step by step, touching a low of 16,075 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 16,095 yuan/mt, recording a five-day losing streak, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.46%. Demand side, end-use consumption is weak, the peak season recovery has fallen short of expectations, and downstream stockpiling is cautious. Lead ingot inventory side, destocking is weak, inventories are gradually stabilizing, and expectations of inventory buildup are rising. Sentiment side, the most-traded SHFE lead contract has recorded a five-day losing streak, short positions are gradually increasing, and bearish sentiment is dominating in the short term. However, amid the sustained decline in lead prices, secondary lead smelters are holding prices firm and holding back from selling due to losses, coupled with cost support from scrap batteries below, providing some phased support to limit the downside room for lead prices.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, edged down slightly during Asian hours before fluctuating higher, hit a high of $2,001.5/mt in the European session, after which overhead selling pressure was released and the market quickly turned downward, dipping to $1,975/mt during the session. Prices corrected slightly in late trading and finally settled at $1,981/mt, down $7.5/mt or 0.38%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,190 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices saw a slight correction, then short-term buying pushed prices slightly higher to a session high of 16,195 yuan/mt. After the high, bulls lacked follow-through, bears gradually took control, and futures fluctuated downward, with prices moving lower in steps to 16,075 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,095 yuan/mt, posting a five-day losing streak, down 75 yuan/mt or 0.46%. On the macro front: The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran over a helicopter incident, and Iran said it would respond resolutely. Trump: May participate in rebuilding Iran, but wants half the oil. Vance: A deal could be reached in the near term, but “definitely” before the midterm elections. U.S. media disclosed four major topics in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. The EU plans to unveil its 21st round of sanctions against Russia. According to Nikkei: The Bank of Japan plans to raise rates to 1% at its June meeting. China's goods trade imports and exports grew 15.3% in the first five months. The U.S. added Alibaba, BYD, and others to its “military-related” list. Foreign Ministry: Urges the U.S. to stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies. Spot Fundamentals: In the morning, SHFE lead tumbled sharply, nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers diverged in their selling strategies, with a few still offering at discounts while most narrowed their discount quotes. In particular, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, with some only selling under long-term contracts. Mainstream primary lead smelters offered electrolytic lead at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price EXW. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with most halting shipments. Some secondary refined lead was offered at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead EXW, resulting in an inverted relationship with primary lead. Downstream enterprises’ rigid demand favored the primary lead market, mainly sourcing cargoes self-picked up from production sites. The market saw both wait-and-see sentiment and dip-buying. Inventory: As of June 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,200 mt to 308,050 mt. As of June 8, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions stood at 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, end-use consumption is weak, peak-season recovery fell short of expectations, and downstream stockpiling remains cautious. On the lead ingot inventory front, destocking has been weak and has gradually stabilized, while expectations of inventory buildup are intensifying. On the sentiment front, the most-traded SHFE lead contract has posted five consecutive losses, with short positions gradually increasing and bearish sentiment gaining the upper hand in the short term. However, amid the persistent decline in lead prices, secondary lead smelters, facing losses, are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Coupled with cost support from scrap batteries below, the downside room for lead prices finds some phased support.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Capital Bulls and Bears in High-Level Stalemate, LME Zinc Fluctuates]: Overnight LME zinc opened at $3,534/mt. Early in the session, it quickly rose to a high of $3,547.5/mt before bulls reduced positions, sending LME zinc sharply lower to a low of $3,513/mt during European trading. Afterwards, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war, LME zinc fluctuated and eventually closed lower at $3,534.5/mt, down $6/mt, or 0.17%. Trading volume fell to 9,816 lots, and open interest decreased by 151 lots to 234,000 lots.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,788/mt, touched a high of $13,803/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center continuously moved downward, dipping to $13,499.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,517/mt, a decline of 2.78%. Trading volume reached 25,200 lots, and open interest was 273,000 lots, increasing by 1,576 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded LME copper contract 2607 opened at 104,790 yuan/mt, rose to 105,000 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward throughout the session, dipping to 103,600 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,800 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.84%. Trading volume reached 62,000 lots, and open interest was 167,000 lots, decreasing by 6,309 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bullish positions.