According to NBS data, in March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 0.28% from the previous month in March. From January to March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 6.1% YoY. Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size Up 5.7% in March 2026 In March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms (all value added growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors). On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 0.28% from the previous month in March. From January to March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 6.1% YoY. By three major sectors, in March, the value added of the mining sector grew 5.7% YoY, manufacturing grew 6.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water grew 3.5%. By economic type, in March, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 5.9% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.2%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.7%; and private enterprises grew 4.0%. By industry, in March, 30 out of 41 major industrial sectors maintained YoY growth in value added. Among them, coal mining and washing grew 5.3%, oil and natural gas extraction grew 9.4%, agricultural and sideline food processing grew 8.0%, liquor, beverage and refined tea manufacturing grew 2.4%, textile industry grew 1.7%, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing grew 9.0%, non-metallic minerals product manufacturing declined 5.5%, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing grew 1.7%, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing remained flat YoY, general equipment manufacturing grew 6.3%, special equipment manufacturing grew 6.2%, automobile manufacturing grew 7.5%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing grew 13.3%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew 5.4%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew 12.5%, and electricity and heat production and supply grew 4.2%. By product, in March, 329 out of 626 products of industrial enterprises above designated size recorded YoY growth in production. Among them, steel products totaled 130.98 million mt, down 2.3% YoY; cement 123.1 million mt, down 21.0%; ten kinds of non-ferrous metals 7.07 million mt, up 2.2%; ethylene 3.64 million mt, up 6.8%; automobiles 3.067 million units, down 0.1%, of which NEVs 1.336 million units, up 1.2%; power generation 802.5 billion kWh, up 1.4%; crude oil processing volume 61.67 million mt, down 2.2%. In March, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 93.8%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,458 billion yuan, up 8.7% YoY in nominal terms.

On March 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In response, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation. In March, the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index all returned to expansion territory, registering 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5%, respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points MoM, indicating a rebound in the level of economic prosperity in China. China PMI Performance in March 2026 I. Performance of China’s Manufacturing PMI In March, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points MoM and above the threshold, indicating a rebound in the prosperity level of the manufacturing sector. By enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM and above the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.0% and 49.3%, respectively, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points MoM, but still below the threshold. By sub-index, among the five sub-indices comprising the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the new orders index were both above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, the employment index, and the supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points MoM, indicating faster manufacturing production activity. The new orders index was 51.6%, up 3.0 percentage points MoM, indicating a marked improvement in the prosperity level of market demand in the manufacturing sector. The raw material inventory index was 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that the decline in inventories of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector narrowed somewhat. The employment index was 48.6%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating a rebound in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery time index was 49.5%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM and below the threshold, indicating that delivery times of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing sector lengthened compared with the previous month. II. Performance of China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM and above the threshold, indicating some improvement in the prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. By industry, the business activity index of the construction sector was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM; the business activity index of the services sector was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. From the perspective of the services sector, the business activity index for industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance all remained in the relatively high expansion territory above 55.0%; the business activity index for industries such as retail, accommodation, catering, and real estate all stayed below the critical point. The new orders index was 45.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that market demand in the non-manufacturing sector pulled back somewhat. By industry, the new orders index for construction was 43.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index for services was 45.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index was 52.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall price level of inputs used in the operating activities of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to rise. By industry, the input price index for construction was 52.7%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous month; the input price index for services was 52.2%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The selling price index was 49.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the overall selling price level in the non-manufacturing sector narrowed. By industry, the selling price index for construction was 49.3%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; the selling price index for services was 50.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The employment index was 45.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that employment conditions among non-manufacturing enterprises pulled back. By industry, the employment index for construction was 39.1%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index for services was 46.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity expectations index was 54.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about market development. By industry, the business activity expectations index for construction was 50.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity expectations index for services was 54.8%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. III. Performance of China’s Composite PMI Output Index In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point, indicating that the overall business activity level of production and operations among enterprises in China improved. China’s PMI Returned to Expansion Territory in March — Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, Interprets China’s PMI for March 2026 On March 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In this regard, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation. In March, the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index all returned to expansion territory, coming in at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5%, respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in the overall economic prosperity level in China. I. The Manufacturing PMI Rose to Expansion Territory In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Chinese New Year and market activity increased, the manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4%, returning to expansion territory. (I) Production and demand expanded simultaneously. The production index and the new orders index stood at 51.4% and 51.6%, respectively, up 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, and both rose into expansion territory. Manufacturing enterprises stepped up production activities, and market demand improved markedly. By industry, the production index and new orders index for such industries as agricultural and sideline food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were both above 55.0%, and production and demand in related enterprises were released relatively quickly; the two indices for such industries as textile and apparel, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products remained below the critical point, with relatively weak market activity. Driven by the recovery in production and demand, enterprises’ purchase willingness strengthened, and the purchasing volume index was 50.9%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. (II) The PMI of large, medium-sized, and small enterprises all rebounded. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level rising steadily; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.0% and 49.3%, respectively, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level improving significantly. (III) The three key industries expanded relatively quickly. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 52.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the critical point for 14 consecutive months, indicating continued positive development momentum in the industry; the PMI of equipment manufacturing and the consumer goods industry was 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, up 1.7 and 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, and both rose to expansion territory; the PMI of high energy-consuming industries was 48.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level showing some rebound. (IV) Price indices rebounded significantly. Affected by factors such as the continued rise in prices of some bulk commodities in the recent period and the acceleration of enterprise procurement activities, the purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index stood at 63.9% and 55.4%, respectively, up 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall price level in the manufacturing market rebounded markedly. By industry, the two price indices for such industries as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products were both above 70.0%, and the overall level of purchase and sales prices in related industries rose significantly. (5) Market expectations remained stable with a slight increase. The index of expectations for production and business activities was 53.4%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that manufacturing enterprises became somewhat more confident about near-term market developments. By industry, the index of expectations for production and business activities in sectors such as special-purpose equipment, automobiles, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and other industries remained in a relatively high expansion range above 56.0%, and the related enterprises were more optimistic about future industry development. The survey results also showed that, affected by factors such as the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, prices of related raw materials such as petroleum and chemicals rose sharply. Coupled with higher logistics freight rates, the proportion of enterprises reporting high raw material costs and high logistics costs both increased MoM this month. II. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rebounded In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating an improvement in the prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. (1) The service sector business activity index rose above the threshold. The service sector business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. By industry, the business activity indexes for railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance all remained in a relatively high expansion range above 55.0%, with total business volume growing relatively fast; after Chinese New Year, the business activity indexes for retail, accommodation, catering, and other industries related to residents' travel and consumption fell below the threshold, and market activity weakened somewhat. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 54.8%, continuing to remain at a relatively high level, indicating that service sector enterprises remained optimistic about near-term market developments. (2) The construction sector business activity index improved. As construction projects across various regions gradually resumed work after the holiday, the construction sector business activity index was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM. In terms of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 50.5%, above the threshold, indicating that construction enterprises remained confident about future industry development. III. The Composite PMI Output Index Rose Above the Threshold In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage points MoM, indicating that the overall level of production and business activity across China's enterprises continued to improve. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which together constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.4% and 50.1%, respectively.

Zhoushan Ningxing Shipway officially delivered the "HX AFFLUENCE," a 13,800 DWT stainless steel oil and chemical tanker, to Hongxi Shipping. This vessel is the first in a "6+3" series and features advanced duplex stainless steel cargo tanks. Known for high strength and superior corrosion resistance, the duplex stainless steel allows for the safe long-distance transport of high-end chemicals and refined oils while reducing long-term maintenance costs. This delivery marks a significant milestone for Zhoushan’s high-tech shipbuilding sector and sets a strong foundation for the remaining eight vessels in the series.

Indonesia's new nickel tariffs and Europe's CBAM have sharply raised overseas stainless steel costs, driving Asian mills to hike prices. Downstream demand remains mixed: Japan and South Korea are resilient, while the Taiwan, China region faces pressure. Wary of rapid price spikes, buyers are limiting purchases to rigid demand. The market will remain cautious until tariff details and actual demand are validated.

[China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry: China’s Ship Product Export Value Reached $55.08 Billion in 2025] On March 11, according to the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, China’s ship product export value reached $55.08 billion in 2025, up 26.7% YoY. Among this, the combined export value of the three mainstream vessel types—bulk carriers, oil tankers, and container ships—was $30.46 billion, accounting for 55.3% of the total export value.

Nickel prices came under pressure and pulled back this week. Early in the week, rumors of tighter approvals for RKAB on the Indonesian ore side spurred the futures market to rally briefly, but it later retreated as US Fed officials repeatedly delivered hawkish remarks, the US dollar index held above 106, and global risk assets came under broad pressure. With tensions in the Middle East rising, macro risk-off sentiment strengthened, and nickel prices on SHFE and LME corrected notably. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract closed at 137,140 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.6% on the week. The LME nickel 3M contract fluctuated between $17,000-17,900/mt this week, with a weekly decline of 2%. In the spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 140,600 yuan/mt, down 2,150 yuan/mt WoW. The weekly average Jinchuan nickel premium was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 1,100 yuan/mt versus the week before Chinese New Year. Premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400-400 yuan/mt. After nickel prices fell this week, downstream restocking driven by rigid demand became more evident, and overall spot nickel plate shipments increased WoW. On the macro front, US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest rise since November 2025 and above the market expectation of 50,000, weakening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, US January PCE and core PCE inflation data rose above expectations, and the US dollar index rebounded, creating short-term pressure on base metal prices. Geopolitical tensions continued to escalate this week, with Iran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, posing a potential threat to the sulfur supply chain. Domestically, the Two Sessions emphasized medium and long-term benefits from national defense spending, improving expectations for alloy demand in sectors such as defense industry and shipbuilding, which supported nickel alloy consumption. Inventory: Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was about 85,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 8,000 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently in a stalemate, with firmer cost support but unchanged near-term pressure. Tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas and tight nickel ore supply provided strong support for nickel prices, but levels above 140,000 yuan/mt faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core expected trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.