SMM May 13 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.63%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.3%. SHFE lead was down 0.15%. SHFE zinc was up 1.46%. SHFE tin was up 0.08%. SHFE nickel edged down slightly. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures were up 0.15%, the most-traded alumina futures were down 0.71%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures were down 3.55%. The most-traded silicon metal futures were down 2.74%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were down 0.62%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 817.5 yuan/mt. Rebar was down 0.7%. Hot-rolled coil was down 0.57%. Stainless steel was up 0.16%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was down 2.51%, and the most-traded coke contract was down 1.28%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper was up 0.6%. LME aluminum was up 0.24%. LME zinc was up 0.4%. LME lead was up 0.3%. LME tin was up 1.29%. LME nickel was up 0.87%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was up 0.48%, and COMEX silver was up 1.99%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures were down 0.55%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures were up 1.1%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures edged down slightly, and the most-traded palladium futures were down 1.03%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.17%, at 2,539.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 13, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices continued to fluctuate at highs, with subdued downstream purchasing sentiment. Intraday buying and selling sentiment both pulled back, and spot discounts continued to widen. According to SMM, downstream orders continued to decline from the previous day... Macro Front [China-US Economic and Trade Consultations Begin in South Korea] At noon local time on May 13, the economic and trade teams of China and the US began China-US economic and trade consultations at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, South Korea. (Xinhua) China: [PBOC Net Drains 25.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 26 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 25.5 billion yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index was up 0.01%, at 98.31. The US April CPI rose at a faster-than-expected pace, further intensifying concerns about the impact of inflation on the US economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the seasonally adjusted headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM and 3.8% YoY. The monthly increase was in line with expectations, but the YoY increase was 0.1 percentage point above market expectations. Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, indicating that while inflation remained well above the US Fed's 2% target, pressure mainly came from non-core areas, especially energy. Energy prices rose 3.8%, once again becoming one of the main drivers of rising inflation; food prices also rose 0.5%. For the full year, energy prices were up 17.9% and food prices were up 3.2%. Gasoline prices were up 28.4% YoY. Although energy, especially gasoline, was the main news focus, inflationary pressures also came from several other areas. Housing costs rose 0.6%, tariff-sensitive apparel prices rose 0.6%, airfares rose 2.8% with a YoY increase of 20.7%. Tariffs also appeared to have affected other areas, with household furnishings and related expenditures up 0.7%. (Jin10 Data) According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 97.1%, with a 2.9% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 96%, with a 3.9% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) CITIC Securities noted in a research report that US April inflation continued to run hot, with spillover effects from Middle East conflicts persisting and compensatory increases in rental inflation pushing up core readings. High inflation continued to erode the real purchasing power of US households, with low-income households facing stronger cost shocks, and real hourly wages turning negative YoY for the first time in three years. CITIC Securities believes the risk of a second wave of US inflation is relatively small, but high oil prices will constrain the room for inflation to pull back within the year. Under the base case scenario, the US Fed is still expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps within the year. US Treasuries are currently more suited for trading opportunities. After a strong earnings season nears its conclusion, US equities should be watched for short-term risks of profit-taking. The US dollar index is likely to be in the doldrums below 100 rather than in a sustained decline. Other currencies: According to the latest estimate from the OECD, the Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate is expected to reach 2% by the end of 2027. The report noted that assuming inflation remains around 2%, the current rate is still close to the lower bound of the neutral rate range for the economy. The report also recommended that the Bank of Japan should continue to gradually raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. The Bank of Japan previously estimated that Japan's nominal neutral interest rate is between 1.1% and 2.5%, but noted that the specific level is subject to significant uncertainty. (Jin10 Data) Macro: Data to be released today include France's Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France's April CPI MoM final reading, the eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised reading, the eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final reading, the eurozone March industrial output MoM, the US April PPI YoY, and the US April PPI MoM. In addition, attention should also be paid to: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12-13 for economic and trade consultations with the US side; US President Trump making a state visit to China. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks fell. WTI was down 1.03%, and Brent was down 1.06%. Iran set out its "entry ticket" for nuclear talks with the US, including unfreezing assets and recognizing sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated: "When negotiating with Iran, I don't consider the financial situation of the American people. I don't consider anyone." Meanwhile, the US Secretary of Defense said the Iran ceasefire agreement remained in effect. (Jin10 Data) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that US crude oil inventories fell for the fourth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories increased. US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8 were -2.188 million barrels, versus expectations of -1.654 million barrels and a prior reading of -8.141 million barrels. US API gasoline inventories for the week ending May 8 were 502,000 barrels, versus expectations of -2.549 million barrels and a prior reading of -6.107 million barrels. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report showed: if the Strait of Hormuz were closed through the end of June, crude oil prices would be $20/barrel higher than the current forecast assuming reopening by the end of May. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► Other metals spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to check~

SMM Nickel News, May 13: Macro and market news: (1) The US overall CPI annual rate in April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting a new high since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. (2) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 12 that ending hostilities and lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz were preconditions for any negotiations with the US. Spot market: On May 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while premiums for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged at -700-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 146,830 yuan/mt, down 0.07%. Although Iran and the US had previously come close to reaching a framework agreement, the negotiations ultimately failed to produce formal terms. If the geopolitical deadlock continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, and downstream purchasing sentiment remains subdued. Both buying and selling sentiment pulled back during the day, with spot discounts continuing to widen. According to SMM, downstream orders continued to decline from the previous day, with procurement driven mainly by rigid demand and limited willingness to chase higher prices. In terms of market structure, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts remained in the range of 90-20 yuan/mt. As the 05 contract delivery date approaches, suppliers are increasingly willing to ship to delivery warehouse, and the delivery logic is expected to provide bottom support for spot discounts, limiting further significant downside. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with a generally weak tone but limited downside room.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tightening Supply Sources Combined with Pullback in Imports, Tight Aluminum Scrap Circulation Underpins Prices] Aluminum alloy 2607 in the night session exhibited an overall trend of "retreat after rapid rise, hover at lows." From the intraday perspective...

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Increasing Mine-Side Disruptions, LME Zinc Continues to Rally] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,482/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc briefly dipped to a low of $3,457/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of $3,542.5/mt near the close. It ultimately closed higher at $3,532.5/mt, up $50.5/mt, a gain of 1.45%. Trading volume increased to 15,265 lots, and open interest rose by 727 lots to 242,000 lots.