In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, driving the US dollar index up more than 2% for the month. This coincided with the electronics industry entering the traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, while doubts lingered over the sustainability of the AI sector rally. Profit-taking on earlier high-price positions intensified, and these combined factors dragged tin prices lower. SHFE tin fell 7.08% in June, while LME tin dropped 6.68% over the same period. Since the start of July, comments from Warsh at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined over the past four weeks, and inflation risks have also diminished," together with US June non-farm payrolls data missing expectations, have cooled market expectations for US Fed rate hikes. At the same time, tech stocks rebounded. These multiple positive drivers pushed tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin was up 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its month-to-date July gain at 2.56%; SHFE tin was up 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with a 5.4% month-to-date rise. Spot Market Tin prices fell over 8% in June; spot prices rose for consecutive days in July but wait-and-see sentiment prevails Spot tin prices: SMM #1 tin spot price rose for four consecutive days, with the July 6 quote at 406,900-415,300 yuan/mt and the average price at 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment intensified in the spot market. Only some rigid demand purchases were made, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Looking at the monthly trend, the average spot price of SMM #1 tin stood at 387,800 yuan/mt on June 30, compared with 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29—a drop of 37,200 yuan/mt, or 8.75%, in just over a month. Notably, as tin prices fell to around 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamentals ►Production: Refined tin production edged up MoM in June According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production edged slightly higher MoM in June 2026, with overall output remaining relatively stable. The slight rise in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors. Supply side, raw material availability showed marginal improvement: earlier overseas tin ore import increases became more evident, and while production resumptions at Myanmar mines were slow, ore continued to flow out, somewhat easing tightness in domestic raw materials. On the other hand, rising arrivals of imported ore at ports drove smelting TCs higher, bringing a phase of relief to the prolonged raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, subsequent production expansion faces multiple constraints: May to July is the traditional rainy season in Myanmar, which limits open-pit mining operations and ore transportation, leading to expectations of a MoM pullback in short-term imported ore arrivals. Overall, the refined tin supply-side is marginally loose at the current stage, but downstream industries are entering the traditional consumption off-season. With both supply and demand weakening, output is unlikely to see a significant surge in the short term. ► Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May, with imports from Myanmar surging 384.5% YoY. China's tin ore imports in May were 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to about 5,187 mt in metal content). Cumulative imports from January to May were 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. China's tin ingot imports in May were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY, with cumulative imports from January to April at 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Trade data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show the global tin market's supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustment, characterized by accelerating supply recovery from overseas mines, easing domestic raw material supply pressure, and downstream smelting increasing supply due to lower raw material costs, while weak overseas demand hinders exports. On the raw material supply side, cumulative tin ore imports from January to May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, with May imports alone at 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar reaching 6,634 mt in May, surging 384.5% YoY, and cumulative YoY growth from January to May soaring to 203.49%; in contrast, while tin ore imports from countries outside Myanmar maintained a cumulative positive growth of 34.72%, May single-month volumes still fell 15.23% YoY, indicating a relatively moderate supply recovery from non-Myanmar sources. ► Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions declined for four consecutive weeks. China tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of July 4, 2026, total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, down sharply by 1,374 mt from 8,673 mt the previous week (June 26), a decline of 15.84% WoW. Looking at the trend, since hitting a near-term peak of 13,604 mt in early June, China's tin ingot social inventory has declined for four consecutive weeks, with cumulative destocking over the past month reaching as high as 46.4%. The destocking slope exhibited a "gradual then steep" pattern, and the current inventory level has pulled back to a year-to-date low, signaling marked marginal improvement in the market supply-demand pattern. By region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decline of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking and making it the dominant force in this round of destocking, reflecting accelerated trade flows in east China and a substantial rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Inventory in Guangdong also declined to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand in south China, represented by solder enterprises, remained resilient and the pace of stockpiling accelerated. Analyzing the underlying logic, on the one hand, it was driven by restocking after price pullbacks. The dampening effect of previously high tin prices on downstream purchases gradually faded as prices returned to rational levels recently, and pent-up rigid orders were released in a concentrated manner, accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME tin inventory: On June 30, LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt, compared to 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating that LME tin inventory declined in June. SMM Outlook On the macro front, a number of macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements in July. Outside China, key focus will be on US CPI and PCE inflation data, as well as the US Fed's interest rate meeting at month-end. Earlier, Walsh said that inflation risks have receded, and coupled with the June non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations, market bets on rate hikes have temporarily cooled. If subsequent inflation data rebounds again and the Fed releases a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will suppress tin price trends; conversely, if easing expectations continue, they will provide valuation support for tin prices. At the domestic level, the central bank increased liquidity injections, ultra-long-term special government bonds were steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to technological transformation of high-end manufacturing and equipment renewal gradually took effect, which are positive for the consumption of tin downstream industries such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy in the medium and long term. However, the weak pattern of the electronics industry during the off-season is hard to reverse quickly in the short term, and the pace of policy dividend releases regarding domestic demand will directly determine the intensity of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tight supply situation of tin ore remained unchanged, but marginal increase signals increased. Smelters maintained stable production with no large-scale production cuts for the time being. On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream solder enterprises were generally cautious in procurement, and the market relied solely on rigid demand purchases, with high prices significantly dampening purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China maintained a destocking trend, providing inventory support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the technology sector will affect the fluctuation range of tin prices. Tight ore supply and low overall inventory formed strong fundamental bottom support, acting as a floor for tin prices. However, the sluggish demand during the current off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, it is crucial to closely track US Fed policy direction, the sentiment of the semiconductor industry chain, and continuously monitor the pace of destocking in and outside China. Only when there is a substantial recovery in demand can it provide new upward driving force for tin prices. Recommended reading:

[SMM Analysis: Secondary aluminum operating rate saw a narrower MoM decline but a sharper YoY drop in June]

[SMM Analysis: Secondary Aluminum Operating Rate in June Sees Narrower MoM Decline and Deep YoY Pullback; Attention on Production Flexibility Driven by Price Spreads] According to the SMM survey, in June 2026, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry fell 0.9 percentage points MoM from May to 33.3%, and fell 7.6 percentage points YoY.

[SMM Flash] SHFE data shows that on July 7, total registered warrants for cast aluminum alloy stood at 23,237 mt, down 1,016 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai registered 2,246 mt (down 149 mt), Guangdong 3,750 mt (down 179 mt), Jiangsu 4,616 mt (down 331 mt), Zhejiang 7,452 mt (down 267 mt), Chongqing 4,388 mt (down 90 mt), and Sichuan 785 mt (unchanged).

SMM Jul 6: The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,850 yuan/mt, reached a high of 23,080 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,785 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,940 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt or 0.46% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 146,200 lots and open interest was 246,000 lots, with a daily decline of 7,151 lots. Price settled above the MA5 (22,687) and MA10 (22,840.50), but remained below the MA20 (23,433.75), MA40 (23,982.50), and MA60 (24,287.67). Short-term momentum improved, but the medium- and long-term bearish pattern has not yet reversed. On the MACD, DIFF (-444.86) was below DEA (-410.16), and the histogram recorded -69.41, indicating persisting bearish momentum but narrowing significantly from earlier. Trading volume of 146,200 lots declined further from the previous session, and the daily open interest decline of 7,151 lots signals continued capital outflows. Today's uptick was more a reflection of technical recovery driven by short-covering. SMM Commentary: The indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with both sides discussing fund repatriation and strait security, and consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to shrink, while disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the strait’s resumption of navigation. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on non‑ferrous metals prices. Amid macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China, with bearish factors dominating in the short term. Aluminum prices are expected to be in the doldrums going forward. The alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,727 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,694 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,701 yuan/mt, down 16 yuan/mt or 0.59% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 184,200 lots and open interest was 352,500 lots, with a daily increase of 18,337 lots. Prices remained below the MA5 (2,732), MA10 (2,776.60), MA20 (2,835.35), MA40 (2,812.43), and MA60 (2,815.27), with the moving averages in bearish alignment and the market continuing to show weakness. On the MACD, DIFF (-30.82) was below DEA (-11.56), and the histogram recorded -38.51, signaling continued bearish momentum. Trading volume of 184,200 lots pulled back slightly from the previous session, but the daily increase in open interest of 18,337 lots indicates additional capital entering at lower levels, with bears remaining aggressive. SMM Commentary: According to SMM data, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory had edged down from the previous week. By inventory structure, raw material inventories at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but given the recent sharp price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking appetite was weak, with end‑users largely on the sidelines. Alumina in-factory inventory decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some northern refineries, where production constraints led to priority use of in-factory stocks; this impact is expected to fade gradually after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventories continued to build, with ex‑China port arrivals staying high and import cargoes supplementing spot supply, adding pressure to the market. Overall, the oversupply picture remains unchanged, and before Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventories are likely to shift from weak destocking to a slight buildup, with supply-demand staying ample and alumina prices expected to continue to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision‑making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently, and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decision made by clients is unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 07 Jul , 2026