SMM, July 31 – Sentiment on A-share semiconductor industry chain futures recovered, and the improved industry chain prosperity transmitted upstream, driving a sharp rally in the strategic minor metal sector. As of the close on July 31, the minor metal sector had risen 2.96%. Among individual stocks, Yunnan Tin and Yunnan Germanium both surged over 8%, while Orient Tantalum, Zhongxi Nonferrous, Xiamen Tungsten, Haotong Technology, Western Metal Materials, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Shenghe Resources led the gains. This round of minor metal strength was driven by the resonance of multiple industrial dynamics. On one hand, the semiconductor and AI computing track regained heat, with expectations for demand expansion in high-speed optical modules, AI servers, and other fields improving. Germanium and tantalum, as core raw materials for semiconductor optoelectronic devices and high-end tantalum capacitors, are seeing steadily strengthened demand support from downstream emerging industries. On the other hand, germanium and tantalum are strategic dispersed metals with concentrated global supply. Coupled with overseas geopolitical disruptions and expectations of supply tightening from domestic resource controls, while the ongoing localisation of related high-end semiconductor materials continued to advance, this further boosted market allocation sentiment and pushed the sector higher. News [Yunnan Germanium: Subsidiary Signs Major Indium Phosphide Wafer Supply Order Worth RMB 570–855 Million, H1 Net Profit Expected to Increase YoY] Yunnan Germanium announced on July 24 that its controlled subsidiary Yunnan Xinyao recently signed a supply agreement with a client for the sale of indium phosphide wafers (substrates). The total estimated contract value ranges from RMB 570.08 million to RMB 855.12 million (tax inclusive), accounting for 53.48% to 80.23% of the company’s audited revenue for 2025. The contract term runs from August 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027. Regarding the contract’s impact on the listed company, Yunnan Germanium stated that if the contract is fulfilled smoothly, it is expected to have a positive impact on the company’s operating results for the performance years. The specific amount and reporting periods affected will depend on the actual performance of the contract and will be based on the company’s audited revenue. [Orient Tantalum: Domestic Demand for High-Value-Added Products Such as Superalloys and Semiconductor Tantalum Targets Is Gradually Rising] Orient Tantalum stated during an institutional survey on July 23 that, with the continuous development of China’s high-tech and new infrastructure sectors, domestic demand for high-value-added products such as superalloys, semiconductor tantalum targets, and high-purity niobium materials is gradually rising. In recent years, the company has vigorously promoted technical transformation and capacity expansion projects, organized production rationally, and gradually released new capacity. Under the guidance of the strategy for autonomous and controllable industry chains, the localisation substitution process has evolved from breakthroughs in individual products to systematic solutions, laying a solid foundation for the growth of tantalum, niobium, and their alloy products. [Yunnan Tin: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit of 1.47–1.57 Billion Yuan, Up 38.43%–47.85% YoY] Yunnan Tin disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting attributable net profit in H1 2026 to be 1.47 billion to 1.57 billion yuan, up 38.43%–47.85% YoY; and recurring net profit is expected to be 1.88 billion to 1.98 billion yuan, up 44.23%–51.91% YoY. Spot Market Tin Overnight, some US chip stocks rebounded, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged, boosting the performance of tin, known as the “computing metal.” SHFE tin opened higher on July 31, lifting spot prices. In the tin spot market: On July 31, the average price of SMM 1# tin was 425,850 yuan/mt, up 1.51% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rose, spot market trading was sluggish. Fundamentals: (1) Supply: Tight ore and ingot supply, low inventory, amplifying elasticity. Myanmar’s rainy season extends through end-August, with mine flooding and logistics disruptions; Wa State’s June tin ore output was only 6,392 mt in physical content. China’s tin ore imports in July are expected to be basically flat MoM. The slow pace of production resumptions in Wa State has been priced in ahead of time, with no major shutdowns in the near term, but supply contraction expectations during the rainy season have yet to fully materialize. Indonesia’s tin ingot imports in July are expected to show some recovery MoM. (2) Demand: Improved solder operating rates, but acceptance of high prices needs to be tested. The operating rate at solder enterprises was 78.8% in June, up 4.6 percentage points from May; however, after the sharp spot price rally on July 30, downstream users were cautious and stayed on the sidelines, and whether high-priced spot cargoes can be absorbed still requires verification. Stockpiling for new Apple/Huawei models in late August is the next demand trigger point. Institutional Views A research report from Minmetals Securities points out: Germanium accounts for 60% of applications in optical communication and satellite PV fields, making it a metal for “AI computing power + space energy.” With its excellent refractive index tuning capability and radiation resistance, germanium has become a key material for AI data center optical interconnects and low-earth-orbit satellite PV systems. Looking at changes in demand structure, from 2020 to 2026, downstream germanium consumption grew from 160 mt to 240 mt, with optical communication’s share rising to 40% and satellite PV’s share to 20%, together accounting for 60% of total downstream demand. It expects that 90% of the demand growth in 2027 will come from two high-growth sectors: AI hardware and satellite PV. A research report from Caitong Securities shows: As AI computing power demand explodes, the market size of indium phosphide, used as a chip substrate material, will continue to expand. Indium resources are scarce and subject to policy restrictions, and product prices are entering an uptrend. High-purity red phosphorus is a very important semiconductor base material, with high purification technology barriers. Against the backdrop of accelerated AI application deployment driving related infrastructure construction, the indium phosphide substrate industry chain is expected to see dual opportunities from demand growth and domestic substitution. It is recommended to focus on enterprises with resource and technological advantages in the links of indium phosphide, indium, and high-purity red phosphorus. A research report from Datong Securities shows that minor metals have staged an independent rally, with tightened supply combined with strategic attributes leading to a value revaluation. The rare earth sector is preemptively pricing in new regulatory controls, with Myanmar ore imports disrupted, tight spot supply of Pr-Nd oxide driving prices sharply higher; tungsten and antimony ore grades are declining along with environmental protection-driven production restrictions, widening the supply gap, while PV and hard alloy demand remains firm during the off-season, and inventories are at low levels. AI computing power and communications sectors are boosting demand for gallium and germanium, and coupled with export control policies, concentrated stockpiling outside China is widening the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Scarce resources are resonating with financial attributes, and the sector continues to be favoured by capital. Recommended Reads:

EcoPro BM disclosed on July 31 that its consolidated revenue for Q2 stood at KRW 576.7 billion, with operating profit of KRW 18 billion. The figures were down 26% and 63.2% YoY, respectively. The company said revenue and operating profit declined slightly QoQ due to reduced electric vehicle (EV) volumes in Europe and North America. However, expanding non-EV demand, including AI-related semiconductor production facilities and power tools, helped support earnings.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: SHFE tin 2609 night session rose 2.15% to 426,800, heightened volatility in consolidation at highs above 420,000]

[SMM Express] The global ruthenium-iridium titanium anode market is projected to grow from USD 1.2 billion in 2025 to USD 2.5 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% over 2026-2034, according to a recent industry market report. Demand is expected to be supported by expanding applications in chlor-alkali production, electrolysis, electroplating, wastewater treatment, fuel cells and battery technologies, as industries seek more durable and energy-efficient electrode materials. Ruthenium-iridium titanium anodes are valued for their corrosion resistance, electrochemical stability and long operating life in aggressive industrial environments. Green hydrogen production is credited to be one of the strongest long-term growth drivers, alongside stricter environmental regulations encouraging advanced water treatment and cleaner chemical manufacturing. Growth in the electronics, semiconductor and energy sectors is also expected to support demand. However, the market continues to face challenges from the high cost and limited availability of ruthenium and iridium, with supply concentrated in a small number of producing countries.

【SMM Tantalum & Niobium Express】Global Advanced Metals (GAM), a leading high-purity tantalum and niobium producer in North America, officially put its upgraded new metallurgical purification process into operation at its Boyertown, Pennsylvania production base in June this year. This integrated optimized purification process revolutionizes the traditional electron beam melting and solvent extraction workflows, enabling precise control of trace oxygen, carbon and metallic impurities in tantalum and niobium feedstocks. Verified through multiple batches of industrial trials, the yield rate of superconducting-grade niobium for fusion magnet components has increased by 18 percentage points compared with the original process. Superconducting-grade niobium requires extremely low impurity content to ensure an ultra-high residual resistance ratio, making it an indispensable core raw material for the ITER Nb₃Sn superconducting coils. GAM has signed a multi-year fixed supply framework agreement with General Atomics, the US domestic manufacturing general contractor for ITER. The new process simultaneously improves the purification efficiency of semiconductor-grade high-purity tantalum ingots, cutting the single-batch production cycle by 22% and significantly reducing material loss. Currently, the global supply of niobium dedicated for fusion applications is tight, and this technological upgrade enables GAM to expand its stable supply capacity for ITER and other large-scale particle accelerator projects. The company stated that it will further expand its purification production lines by 2027 to meet the surging market demand for superconducting metals driven by the global fusion energy and high-end semiconductor industries.

[SMM Rare Earth Express] Duduun Abdurrahman, Head of the Executive Office of the President of Indonesia (KSP), stated that Indonesia will promote the establishment of an integrated rare earth industry ecosystem, accelerate the downstream development of critical minerals, and enhance national industrial competitiveness and supply chain security. Abdurrahman noted that Indonesia has around 350,000 mt of rare earth oxide reserves, but the added value of these resources has not been fully released. In the future, the country will strengthen the development of high-value-added segments such as rare earth separation, refining, and permanent magnet materials, and promote the application of rare earths in strategic industries including semiconductors, NEVs, batteries, renewable energy, and national defense. Meanwhile, the government will improve downstream rare earth policies, tackle issues related to technology, regulation, and supply chain traceability, reduce exports of low-value-added raw materials, and enhance global competitiveness.