[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Rising Risk of Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup in China, Lead Prices May Remain in the Doldrums] US Fed official: the current choice is between maintaining patience or raising interest rates, inflation is the top economic risk, and AI has not yet had an impact. Recently, primary lead and secondary lead enterprises in Henan, Anhui, and other regions have resumed production collectively, increasing lead ingot supply...

SMM, May 20: During the session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,430 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,395-16,430 yuan/mt, then dipped slightly during mid-session to a low of 16,370 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently fluctuated upward, touching a high of 16,540 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,530 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick with a gain of 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Fundamentals side, the momentum of lead ingot social inventory buildup gradually slowed down after the delivery date, and overall operating rates at secondary lead producers remained low, providing some fundamental support. However, bearish factors were also prominent at this stage, as end-use demand recovery at downstream end-users remained sluggish with an overall subdued procurement atmosphere. Additionally, major smelters successively lowered their scrap battery purchase prices, weakening raw material cost support for lead prices and further suppressing upside room. Considering multiple market factors, the current tug-of-war between longs and shorts was relatively balanced, and lead prices are expected to maintain a slightly weak consolidation trend in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 26: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt during the day. Prices edged down slightly in early trading, then fluctuated rangebound within the 16,425-16,460 yuan/mt range, with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. As downstream battery enterprises showed low willingness to restock and consumption remained weak, SHFE lead fell further in the afternoon session, hitting a low of 16,385 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly near the close to end at 16,460 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.21%. On the supply side, quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site held steady, while secondary lead producers held prices firm, leading to tight circulating cargoes. On the demand side, downstream players remained on the sidelines, with long-term contract and purchasing as needed proceeding in parallel. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a sideways movement in the short term. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News on March 20: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at around 16,461 yuan/mt intraday. Affected by broad declines across base metals, lead prices moved in a unilateral downward trend overall today, hitting a low of 16,270 yuan/mt during the session. Although prices edged up slightly toward the close, the rebound was limited, and the contract finally closed at 16,290 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 125 yuan/mt, or 0.76%. Supply side, dragged down by low lead prices, suppliers of primary lead showed mediocre willingness to ship, while secondary lead producers held prices firm and were reluctant to sell due to cost pressure, leaving overall transactions sluggish. Demand side, downstream battery plants mainly purchased based on rigid demand under long-term contracts, while wait-and-see sentiment for spot orders remained strong. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February ADP employment figures, and China's official February Manufacturing PMI; additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book. Meanwhile, overseas geopolitical tensions remain prominent, with uncertainties in US-Iran conflicts fueling strong market risk-off sentiment. On the LME lead front, overseas lead inventory surged by over 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although stocks declined post-holiday, the high inventory base continued to significantly suppress lead prices, preventing them from breaking above $2,000/mt. Recently, widespread power outages in the US due to winter storms boosted heating demand, driving natural gas prices higher. This, to some extent, increased smelting costs for lead ore and lead ingots, providing short-term support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,950-2,000/mt next week. For SHFE lead, post-holiday inventory buildup in the lead market was severe, with stocks rising simultaneously at smelters and social warehouses, becoming a major drag on prices. Notably, scrap battery prices rose steadily after the holiday, widening losses for secondary lead producers and prompting some smelters to delay resumption plans, which will ease future lead ingot inventory pressure. Meanwhile, as downstream enterprises resume operations, focus will be on lead consumption recovery digesting lead inventories. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to fluctuate between 16,650-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-17,500 yuan/mt. Next week, lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to largely resume production, and with pre-holiday lead ingot inventories gradually being consumed, rigid demand restocking is anticipated. On the supply side, secondary lead smelters delayed resumption and face significant losses, limiting spot discounts for secondary refined lead. For primary lead, supplies will re-enter the market after delivery next week, and with high smelter inventories, spot discounts may widen.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,027/mt. During the Asian session, as the US dollar index fell sharply, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $2,060/mt. Entering the European session, it oscillated between $2,040-2060/mt, giving up all gains by the end and continuing to decline, touching a low of $2,005.5/mt, nearly breaking below the $2,000 mark. It finally closed at $2,011/mt, down $16/mt, or 0.79%. It recorded two consecutive bearish candlesticks. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 17,195 yuan/mt. Initially, driven by the general rise in non-ferrous metals, SHFE lead briefly rose above 17,300 yuan/mt. Later, dragged down by the falling LME lead and weak fundamentals, SHFE lead gave up all its gains and fell below the 17,000 yuan/mt level again. It finally closed at 16,975 yuan/mt, down 210 yuan/mt, or 1.22%, forming a large bearish candlestick. On the macro front: Trump: The Fed Chairman will be announced next week, and interest rates should be cut by 2 to 3 percentage points. CME raised the margin requirements for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures. World Gold Council: Global central banks net purchased 230 mt of gold in Q4. Strong gold demand is expected to continue in 2026. Bank of China: Adjusted the parameters for silver deferred contracts, raising the margin ratio from 48.26% to 50.80%. The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption." Guotou Silver LOF: Trading suspended from the opening on January 30 until the close. Yesterday, non-ferrous metals generally rose, and SHFE lead also stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 17,000 yuan/mt level. Suppliers actively sold goods, especially with the discounts on self-picked-up electrolytic lead cargoes (against the SHFE 2603 contract) expanding, while some smelters narrowed their discount offers. Mainstream origin quotations were -50~-30 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Secondary lead producers followed the market, offering secondary refined lead at -150~-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly made long-term contract purchases, with a small portion making just-in-time procurement. Spot market transactions showed no significant improvement. Inventory: On January 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 mt to 207,675 mt. As of January 29, SMM's five-region social inventory of lead ingots continued to increase. Today's lead price forecast: Due to poor sales orders, battery producers have low production enthusiasm and currently rely mainly on long-term contract deliveries for raw material procurement, with low willingness for spot orders; some plan to take a holiday around February 10. Due to difficulties in selling spot lead ingots, both primary lead and secondary refined lead were sold at a discount to the SMM #1 lead average price; secondary refined lead sources had no transaction advantage, and smelters experienced widespread production cuts and shutdowns. In summary, be cautious of the drag on lead price trends from the dual decline in supply and demand. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.