SMM, March 24: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. In early trading, LME lead fluctuated downward, dipping to $1,873.5/mt. Then bulls stepped in, driving prices sharply higher, with wide swings in the $1,888.5-1,909/mt range and a session high of $1,909/mt. Near the close, bullish momentum somewhat faded, and LME lead edged down slightly to finally close at $1,898.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $9.5/mt, or 0.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,495 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,510 yuan/mt. It then saw wide swings in the 16,440-16,500 yuan/mt range. During the session, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, falling to 16,405 yuan/mt. Late in the session, SHFE lead prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, finally closing at 16,435 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Supply side, discounts quoted by primary lead enterprises narrowed slightly WoW, and among cargoes self-picked up from production site, heavily discounted cargoes were also hard to find. The number of enterprises quoting secondary refined lead was relatively small, and there were clear differences between upstream and downstream in price acceptance: downstream had low acceptance of premiums, while upstream held firm offers and showed cautious willingness to sell. Demand side, procurement by downstream enterprises was somewhat scattered. Some mainly made purchases under long-term contracts, while others bought the dip as needed, resulting in differentiated market transactions. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM News, March 23: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at around 16,390 yuan/mt during the day. After the opening, bulls remained strong, pushing SHFE lead prices sharply higher to an intraday high of 16,500 yuan/mt. Prices then dropped back slightly and fluctuate rangebound in the 16,440-16,470 yuan/mt range, overall holding up well. During the session, the price center of SHFE lead moved lower, touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Near the close, SHFE lead prices rebounded slightly and finally closed at 16,395 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 105 yuan/mt, or 0.64%. Supply side, discounts quoted by primary lead smelters narrowed slightly from last Friday, while secondary lead quotes held firm and willingness to sell was cautious. Demand side, downstream battery plants mainly purchased on a rigid-demand basis through long-term contracts, while wait-and-see sentiment for spot orders was strong. On the downside, lead prices were supported by rigid scrap battery costs, selling reluctance amid losses in secondary lead, and firm spot premiums. On the upside, pressure came from the impending entry into the demand off-season and weak macro demand. SMM expects lead prices to fluctuate at lows and repair, with limited room both upward and downward. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

SMM, March 23: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,893/mt. In early trading, prices consolidated within the range of $1,882–1,895/mt, and briefly dipped to $1,880/mt intraday. Bulls then stepped in, driving prices sharply higher to a high of $1,908/mt. After consolidating at high levels, bullish momentum weakened somewhat, and LME lead turned into a fluctuating downward trend. LME lead prices saw wide swings within the range of $1,888–1,898/mt, and finally closed at $1,889/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $8/mt, or 0.42%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of 16,325 yuan/mt. SHFE lead then fluctuated upward, but failed to break through resistance, and lead prices fluctuated downward again. After 22:30, prices gradually stabilized and rebounded, reaching a high of 16,445 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices then fluctuated rangebound within the range of 16,410–16,445 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up 125 yuan/mt, or 0.77%. Supply side, with lead prices running at low levels, primary lead enterprises showed weak willingness to sell, while secondary lead enterprises held prices firm and were reluctant to sell on cost support, leaving overall market trading sluggish. Demand side, downstream battery plants only maintained rigid-demand procurement through long-term contracts, while remaining cautious and wait-and-see toward spot order purchases. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

SMM News, March 24: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for six consecutive days, mainly due to limited arrivals and higher shipments. Although inventory continued to fall, downstream users showed weak restocking interest as copper prices surged sharply. Suppliers had to keep lowering spot premiums to conclude deals. Overall, trading activity in the market was noticeably weaker today than yesterday. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.48, down 0.15 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.31, down 0.11 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened, and spot premiums moved lower.