SMM June 26: This week lead prices drifted lower. At the start of the week, mainstream secondary refined lead was offered around parity with SMM #1 lead, with tax-exclusive sources at lower levels; downstream resumptions saw only long-term contract deals. Mid-week, smelters held back from selling and offered sparingly, with only sporadic need-based purchases. At the weekend, the holding-back sentiment intensified, and a few spot orders rose to a premium of 25 yuan/mt. Month-end, downstream players waited on the sidelines for new-month long-term contracts, leaving spot trades sluggish throughout the week. As of June 26, large domestic secondary lead enterprises recorded a per-mt loss of 539 yuan, while small and medium secondary smelters saw losses widen to 740 yuan/mt. Continued weakness in secondary lead prices, coupled with persistently high raw material costs for waste lead-acid batteries, deepened smelter losses WoW. Going forward, although some secondary lead smelters are expected to resume production, ongoing losses and scrap battery raw material supply constraints have led to coexisting reductions and suspensions in the market. Overall secondary lead supply scale next week is expected to be basically flat WoW, and the premium/discount range for secondary refined lead against SMM #1 lead is expected to stay between a discount of 50 yuan/mt and a premium of 50 yuan/mt.

SMM April 24 update: Lead prices moved sideways this week. Raw material costs remained elevated and firm, continuing to support spot secondary lead prices, with strong sentiment across the market to hold prices firm. Domestic ordinary secondary crude lead was mainly traded at 15,300-15,350 yuan/mt excluding tax, and at discounts of 75 yuan/mt to parity against the SMM #1 lead average price including tax. The SHFE/LME price ratio continued to converge, narrowing import lead trade profits. Suppliers held back cargoes and were reluctant to sell, with overall offers being scarce. Imported crude lead (containing 0.2 Sb and 0.3 Sn) was offered at discounts of around 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Looking ahead to next week, the supply of domestic secondary crude lead and imported crude lead is expected to remain tight, and with the lead-acid battery end-user market in the off-season, downstream procurement pace is expected to stay cautious. Spot secondary lead premiums are expected to move sideways within a narrow range.

SMM April 10 update: This week, the mainstream ex-factory prices of secondary refined lead were at discounts of 75-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, adjusting along with fluctuations in lead prices. Dragged by the consumption off-season, downstream purchasing sentiment was generally weak, with smelters mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach while holding prices firm, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continued. Affected by tight scrap battery supply and high raw material costs, losses at secondary lead smelters widened further WoW. As of April 10, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -184 yuan/mt, and for small and medium-sized enterprises -388 yuan/mt (excluding tin and antimony by-product revenues). Next week, production ramp-up at resuming smelters and production cuts at smelters facing raw material shortages will coexist, with a tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side. Enterprise losses are expected to remain in the doldrums. Meanwhile, as the consumption off-season continues, weak purchasing sentiment from downstream battery plants will weigh on secondary lead prices. However, scrap battery raw material costs still provide support, and SMM expects secondary lead premiums to move sideways. >> Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

It was learned that as of April 2, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 16,700 mt, up 150 mt WoW. This week, maintenance and resumptions coexisted among primary lead smelters. Supply was relatively ample in east China and south China, while south-west China was slightly tight due to maintenance factors. At the beginning of the week, lead prices were in the doldrums, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed. During the period, as secondary lead prices were relatively high, downstream procurement tilted toward primary lead. However, in the second half of the week, lead prices rose sharply, and procurement by downstream enterprises weakened significantly, leading to some inventory buildup at smelters. In addition, during the Qingming Festival holiday, primary lead enterprises basically maintained normal production, and the risk of lead ingot inventory buildup increased after the holiday.

SMM, March 25: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,495 yuan/mt. After the opening, driven by broad gains across the nonferrous metals complex, prices quickly surged to an intraday high of 16,590 yuan/mt, then fluctuated lower, giving back part of the gains and moving slightly around the daily average line. Near the close, the SHFE lead price center edged higher, fluctuating rangebound within the 16,488-16,542 yuan/mt range, while the tug-of-war between longs and shorts eased. It finally closed at 16,495 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.46%. Primary lead suppliers held prices firm, and premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly. Coupled with tight circulating supply caused by maintenance at some secondary lead enterprises, this supported lead prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased as needed. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, spot orders showed a stronger preference for primary lead. Overall, spot support remained strong, providing downside support for lead prices, but with more downstream bargaining and a lack of strong upward momentum, prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, March 25: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, and then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and relatively cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose and broke above the previous trading range, hitting a high of $1,901/mt before closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, and then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, with prices gradually stabilizing around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume also pulled back and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead again broke upward, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, while spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai edged up slightly, and quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site changed relatively little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and spot market circulating cargoes were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices were inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.