[SMM Analysis]Supply Tightening Offsets Off-season Pressure, June ADC12 Price Center Expected to Rise

This week, overseas aluminum scrap and secondary aluminum markets continued to fluctuate at relatively high levels. Affected by Middle East tensions, tight shipping logistics and fluctuations in LME aluminum prices, overall market sentiment remained cautious. The industry generally continued to show a market pattern characterized by “strong cost support and downstream demand mainly driven by rigid procurement needs.” Aluminum scrap market In the aluminum scrap market, Malaysia’s mixed aluminum casting scrap Tense prices remained stable at USD 2,600/mt this week after rising last week, with overall market quotations relatively steady. Malaysia’s aluminum cable scrap Talon prices edged up slightly from MYR 14,250/mt (~USD 3,593/mt) to MYR 14,300/mt (~USD 3,605/mt). Meanwhile, baled used beverage can (UBC) prices saw a noticeable correction, falling by MYR 850 from MYR 10,500/mt (~USD 2,647/mt) to MYR 9,650/mt (~USD 2,433/mt). SMM indicates this price adjustment was mainly due to some companies restructuring their quotation systems and pricing mechanisms, rather than a significant weakening in end-user demand. In Thailand, Talon prices increased from THB 117,500/mt (~USD 3,601/mt) last week to THB 122,500/mt (~USD 3,755/mt), while baled UBC prices remained relatively stable around THB 85,500/mt (~USD 2,621/mt), indicating relatively limited overall market fluctuations. SMM analysis indicates that the overseas aluminum scrap market continues to be supported by tight supply conditions. Ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to affect global aluminum scrap circulation, with shipping delays and rerouting still occurring in some regions, keeping freight and import costs elevated. Some market participants reported that European-origin scrap has been more heavily affected by shipping disruptions, leading buyers to gradually shift procurement preference toward U.S.-origin scrap with relatively more stable logistics, further supporting imported aluminum scrap prices. At the same time, local supply of high-quality aluminum scrap in Southeast Asia remains tight. Some downstream factories in Malaysia continue to increase their reliance on imported aluminum scrap, further reflecting that regional supply-side pressure has not eased significantly. SMM estimates that the domestic and overseas aluminum scrap price spread in China remains around RMB 2,500–3,000/mt, leaving arbitrage opportunities for certain products and providing continued support for aluminum scrap trading activity in Southeast Asia. On the demand side, overseas ADC12 producers and secondary aluminum enterprises are still mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. Although aluminum scrap prices remain at relatively high levels, downstream buyers have become more cautious compared with earlier periods, and transaction speeds for high-priced materials have slowed somewhat. Overall, the market continues to be dominated by procurement on a need-only basis. Secondary aluminum ADC12 market In the ADC12 market, Malaysia’s domestic ADC12 secondary aluminum alloy prices remained stable this week at MYR 13.30/kg (~USD 3,353/mt), while FOB prices held steady at USD 3,395/mt, with overall market trends remaining relatively stable. In Thailand, domestic ADC12 prices rose alongside higher LME aluminum prices, increasing from THB 110/kg (~USD 3,372/mt) last week to THB 112/kg (~USD 3,433/mt), while FOB prices remained largely stable around USD 3,370/mt throughout the week. SMM analysis shows that some ADC12 producers already have orders scheduled through July and August. While order-taking remains cautious, operations are generally stable. As a result, producers currently prefer maintaining stable quotations rather than continuing to aggressively raise prices. Some manufacturers are also retaining a certain level of spot inventory to cope with potential raw material supply fluctuations and unexpected order demand. In addition, some customers have recently begun delaying shipment schedules and slowing cargo pickups, mainly due to limited acceptance of high prices among end-users and continued market uncertainty regarding future price trends. In the Indian market, although Indian buyers are offering relatively higher prices, some companies still remain cautious toward concluding transactions. Overall, SMM expects overseas aluminum scrap and ADC12 markets to continue fluctuating at relatively high but stable levels in the short term. Future market direction will still depend on developments in the Middle East situation, shipping recovery conditions, LME aluminum price movements, and actual downstream order-taking and cargo pickup activity. Exchange Rate Reference: 1 USD = 3.96 MYR 1 USD = 32.62 THB

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Driven by the rebound in futures, the secondary aluminum alloy market saw quoted prices edge up today, with mainstream increases of 100 yuan/mt. Some enterprises raised prices accordingly to recover earlier losses, and market sentiment improved slightly from the previous period. However, transactions remained weak, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing as needed and showing limited acceptance of high prices, constraining upside room for prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound, and further gains would still require substantive improvement on the demand side.

[SMM Secondary Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Secondary aluminum alloy market quotations were generally lowered by 100 yuan/mt today. Affected by the pullback in futures, most enterprises lowered their quotations accordingly. However, as aluminum scrap raw material prices remained at a relatively high level, the cost side provided some support for ADC12 prices, and enterprises were generally restrained in the extent of their price adjustments. Demand side, downstream procurement still mainly met immediate needs, and no concentrated restocking driven by the price pullback had yet emerged. Wait-and-see sentiment in the market increased somewhat, and overall trading remained relatively stable.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices