[SMM Analysis]Cost Support and Demand Constraints Coexist, ADC12 Consolidates at Highs, Awaiting Peak Season Breakthrough

[Destocking Pattern Hard to Reverse in Short Term, Aluminum Prices Consolidate and Adjust in Short Term] Overall, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain volatile, market concerns over interest rate hikes persist, and supply continues to recover, but the destocking pattern is hard to reverse in the short term. Under the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and the trends of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and China’s downstream processing orders and aluminum semis export data.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Drift Higher, Spot Market Stable in Narrow Range Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract drifted higher overall in the night session, closing at 23,175 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a gain of 0.65%.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The ADC12 market maintained a stable price trend overall today, with quotes from mainstream producers basically flat. On the one hand, aluminum prices fluctuated within a limited range recently, and the cost side lacked new driving factors, but the supply of aluminum scrap remained tight, lending some support to secondary aluminum alloy prices. On the other hand, end-use demand remained in the off-season, downstream orders were released insufficiently, and the market trading atmosphere was subdued. Against the backdrop of the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, the market as a whole maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways in a narrow range in the short term.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Cost Support and Off-Season Demand Keep ADC12 Price Moving Sideways] Today, the ADC12 market continued its stable price trend overall, with mainstream producers’ quotations basically flat. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 24,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

This week (July 4–10, 2026), the secondary aluminum market outside China remained in the doldrums, with the price centers of aluminum scrap and ADC12 declining further. As the impact of supply disruptions in the Middle East gradually faded, market trading logic returned to supply-demand fundamentals, while downstream procurement demand remained sluggish, pushing aluminum scrap and secondary aluminum alloy prices outside China under pressure. The overall trading atmosphere was relatively sluggish.