[Middle East Geopolitical Risks Cool Down, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure in the Short Term] On the macro front, Trump announced the cancellation of the originally planned military strike against Iran, as negotiations mediated by relevant countries made progress, easing market concerns over an escalation of Middle East conflicts. High inventory levels in China remain the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak trading performance in the spot market further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforms SHFE, fluctuating at highs.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Futures side, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2607 futures contract opened lower and rebounded with fluctuations today. It opened at 22,900 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and dipped during the session, closing at 22,895 yuan/mt before noon, down 255 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, a decline of 1.10%. Spot side, the ADC12 market generally declined today, with drops mostly contained within 100-200 yuan/mt. Currently, compliant aluminum scrap sources were tightening, forcing some secondary aluminum enterprises to cut production. Market supply contracted slightly, leading to rising hold-back-from-selling sentiment amid falling prices, which provided support for prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sid

The EU-funded RecAL project aims to upgrade Europe’s aluminum recycling system by addressing alloy contamination and downcycling challenges. Led by the Austrian Institute of Technology, the initiative brings together 19 partners from nine countries to develop 14 recycling technologies and the “RecAL Hub” digital platform to improve scrap sorting, traceability and reuse efficiency. The project seeks to increase the share of high-performance recycled aluminum through smarter and more digitalised recycling processes. Aluminum beverage can recycling rates in Europe have reached 76.3%, while automotive aluminum recycling exceeds 90%, highlighting the growing importance of secondary aluminum supply chains amid rising lightweight material demand.

[Easing China-U.S. Trade Tensions Combined with Ex-China Supply Gap — LME Outperforms SHFE in Aluminum Prices] The macro front received positive signals as China-U.S. trade negotiations yielded preliminary results. Both sides agreed to continue implementing prior tariff arrangements and to establish a Trade and Investment Council, which is expected to facilitate tariff reductions on certain products. The marginal easing of trade frictions is set to improve export expectations for aluminum semis and end-use products, providing bullish support for market sentiment. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Coupled with weak spot market trading performance, this further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforming SHFE, fluctuating at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Generally Stable with Slight Fall amid Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers] Last Friday, the ADC12 market overall operated in a generally stable with slight fall manner. Some enterprises followed with slight declines driven by weakening aluminum prices, while others maintained a wait-and-see stance with stable pricing due to high costs and tight compliant supply. Supply-demand structure perspective, demand side performance remained mediocre, suppressing price rise; however, the supply side saw marginal tightening due to factors such as invoice shortages, import contraction, and phased production cuts, providing certain support for prices. Against this backdrop, ADC12 prices are expected to continue to move sideways in the short term, with relatively limited downside room.

[Macro Tailwinds and Inventory Pressure Coexist, Limiting Upside Room for Aluminum Prices] Current macro tailwinds are being released in a concentrated manner, the global rigid supply gap for aluminum has been confirmed, and China’s aluminum ingot inventory has entered initial destocking. Multiple positive factors are providing support for aluminum prices. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing a sharp price surge. In addition, spot market trading has been relatively weak, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes this year have been heating up, further limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether China’s aluminum ingot inventory can maintain sustained destocking, thereby easing the pressure that inventory at high levels exerts on aluminum prices.