This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Rise in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Slightly Recover but Struggle to Rise This week, stainless steel prices and production costs moved up together, slightly expanding steel mill profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs stood at 2.31%, while that based on inventory raw material costs was 2.59%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Driven by both the sharp rise in SS futures and the gradual release of downstream procurement demand during the week, high-grade NPI prices moved up accordingly. Market expectations for further price increases remain relatively strong, with a notable willingness to hold prices firm. In the near term, high-grade NPI prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward. As of this Friday, mainstream 10%-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 9 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,149.5 yuan/nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, scrap prices edged up this week, bolstered by the combined boost from stronger futures, rising finished steel prices, and the recovery of high-grade NPI, with evident cost support. However, the market has entered the traditional off-season, with frequent production cuts at steel mills weakening demand expectations. Additionally, tax invoice issues have constrained trading activity. While short-term positives have supported firmer prices, under the dual pressures of weak off-season demand and industry pain points, further upside will struggle, and there is a risk of a pullback. As of this Friday, prices of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with latest quotations at around 10,550 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. Despite recent news of power supply tightness in the Mengxi region of Inner Mongolia, the impact on local high-carbon ferrochrome production...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Futures and Raw Material Linkage Boost Stainless Steel Scrap Market, Off-Season Pressure Limits Gains This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China edged up, with a quotation range of 10,500-10,600 yuan/mt; in Foshan, the price of the same specification stainless steel scrap also edged up, with a price range of 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost analysis, the cost of producing stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,701.1 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI reached 15,168.67 yuan/mt, maintaining a considerable cost price spread. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. Recovering macro sentiment during the week drove SS futures higher, with the positive momentum in futures transmitting to the spot market and driving spot prices for stainless steel products higher. Meanwhile, purchasing activity in the high-grade NPI market picked up, lifting raw material prices. Futures, steel products, and alternative raw materials formed a linked boost, pushing stainless steel scrap prices higher this week. Although the rise in high-grade NPI prices this week narrowed the economic cost advantages of stainlessless steel scrap, the overall cost advantages remained prominent, continuing to provide bottom support for stainless steel scrap prices and ensuring the market held up well. Overall, short-term positive factors drove scrap prices moderately higher, but bearish constraints remain in the market. The market has officially entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with frequent news of production cuts and maintenance at stainless steel mills within the industry. Market expectations for stainless steel scrap demand are gradually weakening. Meanwhile, issues such as tight industry tax invoices...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Headwinds Drove SS Futures to Swing Wildly, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Weakened but Prices Remained Firm According to SMM on June 18, SS futures were in the doldrums. Despite a pullback, the decline was limited, and the contract moved sideways during the day. As of market close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 15,150 yuan/mt. In the spot market, influenced by the sideways movement of futures and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, trading activity was mediocre under the combined effect of cautious wait-and-see sentiment and the holiday mood. Quotations remained firm, supported by steel mill guidance prices. SS futures, the most-traded contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2607 was reported at 15,060 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the 160-560 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat. For cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi was flat, and the average price in Foshan was flat. The price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area was flat. For hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quotation in Wuxi increased by 70 yuan/mt. Cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot cargo experienced wild swings. Outside China, fluctuating macro expectations repeatedly disturbed the futures market, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall pattern was one of macro factors dominating futures trends, transactions fluctuating with sentiment, tightening supply supporting spot cargo, stable inventory, and slightly recovering margins. At the start of the week, macro tailwinds lifted market sentiment, and a futures rebound drove a recovery in spot transactions. Mid-week, hawkish expectations for the US Fed intensified, futures weakened again, and end-user …

[Destocking Logic Continues to Materialize, Macro Pressure Caps Aluminum Price Upside] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end‑June/early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively evident, and with the current bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, domestic aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate in consolidation in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,813/mt. At the open, copper prices showed wild swings, dipping to $13,776.5/mt during the session. Then the price center fluctuated upward, touching a high of $13,835.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $13,835/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 11,500 lots, and open interest stood at 251,000 lots, down 7,579 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,280 yuan/mt. In early trading, it hit a high of 105,580 yuan/mt, then the price center dipped to 105,210 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 105,510 yuan/mt, up 0.1%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest reached 122,000 lots, down 2,119 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.