In H1, the industry showed distinct characteristics: upstream raw material imports experienced a mix of hot and cold trends, while mid-and downstream aluminum processing product exports saw explosive growth. Diverging domestic and overseas demand, shifting overseas manufacturing orders, and changes in the overseas raw material supply landscape are jointly reshaping the trade pattern of China's aluminum industry chain.

[Mideast Situation Remains Volatile and Uncertain, Aluminum Prices Consolidate and Adjust] Overall, the Middle East situation remains volatile, market concerns over interest rate hikes persist, and supply continues to recover. However, the destocking pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions and the trend of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, changes in LME aluminum ingot inventories, and the condition of downstream processing orders in China.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap Imports Post Third Straight Monthly Decline in June 2026, Continually Reshaping Aluminum Alloy Trade Patterns] Currently, the secondary aluminum alloy market remains in the off-season, with downstream order releases limited. End-user procurement stays need-based, overall trading activity is relatively subdued, and the demand side provides insufficient support for price increases. Meanwhile, aluminum prices remain...

[SMM Copper Scrap Express] In June, copper scrap imports from Thailand were 37,300 mt in physical content, accounting for 17.69% of total copper scrap imports for the month, surging 42.29% YoY and rising 41.41% MoM. Supply from Thailand recovered markedly in June, maintaining strong YoY growth, consistently providing a stable source for China's copper scrap market and serving as the core support for the import growth for the month.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in June 2026, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, up 10.43% MoM and up 15.11% YoY. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 1.2415 million mt in physical content, up 8.39% YoY.

SMM, July 20 – SMM A00 spot aluminum closed at 23,190 yuan/mt today, edging down 30 yuan/mt MoM. The aluminum scrap market was largely stable. On the price spread front, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan stood at 2,012 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap in Foshan was 698 yuan/mt, both still at extremely low levels. Supply-side constraints continued to intensify, with the reverse invoicing policy impact deepening and compliant, invoiced aluminum scrap becoming increasingly scarce. On imports, China’s aluminum scrap imports in June 2026 were approximately 133,000 mt, down 16.9% YoY and 12.5% MoM, marking a third straight month of decline. Total imports in January-June 2026 reached 982,000 mt. As overseas aluminum scrap quotes kept pulling back, orders for aluminum scrap imports from Southeast Asia to Guangdong recently increased from prior levels, with the import window improving further versus earlier. However, new deals remained concentrated mainly in select low-priced cargoes and long-term clients, limiting overall spot market activity. The aluminum scrap market is expected to keep moving sideways at high levels. Supply side, the constraint from the reverse invoicing policy is unlikely to ease in the near term, and tightness in invoiced aluminum scrap will persist. Import side, multiple bearish factors will gradually play out in coming months, keeping overseas high-quality scrap supply low. Demand side, downstream operating rates remain low as the off-season deepens; end-user orders show little real improvement; scrap utilization enterprises continue to purchase as needed, making a noticeable pickup in buying sentiment unlikely. The price spread between primary and scrap aluminum has narrowed to historic lows, eroding scrap’s cost advantage over primary aluminum significantly. Should aluminum prices fall further, substitution effects will accelerate.