In April 2026, China imported 211,700 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, down 6.96% MoM and up 3.41% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 reached 839,600 mt in physical content, up 8.05% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code: 74040000)

[Destocking Inflection Point Largely Confirmed; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] On the macro front, the US and Iran plan to sign a letter of intent to formally end hostilities and launch 30-day negotiations, though the trajectory of geopolitical risks remains to be seen. The US Fed meeting minutes were far more hawkish than expectations, with most policymakers supporting policy tightening, and expectations of liquidity tightening are overall bearish for metal prices. Recently, the heads of state of the US and Russia have made concentrated visits to China, which is expected to yield preliminary outcomes in trade and economic areas. On the fundamentals side, the supply gap and low inventory outside China still provide bottom support, but elevated inventory levels in China remain the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Coupled with weak trading performance in the spot market, this further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the LME outperforms SHFE pattern, fluctuating at highs.

[Tightening Liquidity Expectations Strengthen, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure with Short-term Fluctuations] On the macro front, the US and Iran plan to sign a letter of intent to formally end hostilities and initiate 30-day negotiations, with geopolitical risk trends still remaining to be seen; the US Fed meeting minutes were far more hawkish than expectations, with most policymakers supporting policy tightening, and tightening liquidity expectations are overall bearish for metal prices. On the fundamentals side, supply gaps outside China and low inventory still provide bottom support, but inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak spot market transaction performance further limits upside room for aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforms SHFE, fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap and Alloy Imports Both Dropped Sharply, Alloy Exports Hit Single-Month Record High] Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 73,500 mt, down 15.4% YoY and down 12.9% MoM; cumulative imports from January to April were 313,900 mt, down 14.6% YoY. Exports side, April unwrought aluminum alloy exports reached 46,300 mt, hitting a single-month export record high, up 179.7% YoY and up 68.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to April were 111,200 mt, up 58.1% YoY. Since March, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts and ex-China supply disruptions, overseas aluminum alloy ingot prices continued to rise, with the price spread between domestic and overseas markets becoming increasingly inverted.

[Imports of Copper Scrap Remained Strong YoY] In April, the structural supply gap of copper scrap in China remained prominent. The tight invoice situation showed no significant improvement, with invoiced supplies remaining scarce in circulation, driving domestic trade prices persistently higher. From March to April, spot bare bright copper prices for imports in Zhejiang stayed at elevated levels, with discounts against futures contract maintained at 300-800 yuan/mt. Downstream compliant copper enterprises, constrained by production, operation, and tax requirements, maintained stable just-in-time procurement. Imported sources became an important channel to fill the domestic raw material gap, supporting copper scrap imports to maintain YoY growth.

[SMM News Flash] Japan exported 34,200 mt of copper scrap to China in April, accounting for 16.15%, up 4.65% YoY but down 17.60% MoM. As the second largest supplier, it still maintained positive YoY growth and remained an important supplementary source of copper scrap for China.