SMM News, March 20: Lead prices weakened this week, and secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices due to profit pressure. Today, the average scrap battery purchase prices at smelters were: waste e-bike battery at 9,825 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,125 yuan/mt. Recyclers also followed the decline, and after prices were cut, downstream collection outlets held back cargoes, with recycling volume decreasing WoW. Smelter inventory diverged, with low-inventory smelters holding only enough for one week of production, while high-inventory smelters made limited just-in-time procurement after small price cuts. According to the SMM survey, market expectations for lead prices were weak, and if prices continue to weaken next week, scrap battery prices are expected to be lowered again. This week, the mainstream self pick-up price at major ports for imported crude lead was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some cargoes were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Domestic secondary crude lead cargoes were quoted firmly due to insufficient operating rates caused by cost pressure. As of this Friday, the mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory prices stood near 15,200 yuan/mt. Going into next week, imported lead is still expected to arrive at ports one after another, and downstream enterprises have been active in making inquiries. SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, March 13: This week, mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory prices for secondary lead were at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, with discounts of 50-100 yuan/mt in some areas; dragged down by scrap battery prices and weak downstream consumption, the industry remained loss-making, and most smelters held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. As of March 13, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss for large-scale enterprises was -422 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -633 yuan/mt (the model’s by-product revenue did not include tin or antimony). With delivery to be completed and rigid demand expected to recover next week, SMM expected discounts for secondary lead to narrow slightly. Overall, losses across China’s secondary lead industry remained unchanged and production resumptions were slow. Given the availability of primary lead and imported lead cargoes, premiums for spot orders of secondary refined lead were likely to maintain sideways movement, making substantial premiums difficult to emerge. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,940.5/mt. It held up well during the Asian session and touched a high of $1,949/mt. After entering the European session, it fluctuated downward and fell to a low of $1,932.5/mt, then edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, finally closing at $1,938.5/mt, down $6.5/mt, a decline of 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,645 yuan/mt. After falling at the beginning of the session to a low of 16,600 yuan/mt, it rebounded to a high of 16,665 yuan/mt, then weakened slightly and finally closed at 16,655 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous day, an increase of 0.03%. US core inflation in February unexpectedly slowed, offering slight relief to price pressures before the outbreak of the Iran war. However, as the US and Israel jointly struck Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, international oil prices surged sharply, pushing up the costs of petroleum, gasoline, and fertilizers. The market generally believed that inflation would rebound in March. After the data release, the probability that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged next week was as high as 99.4%, while inflation concerns triggered by the war were further delaying the market's expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. MIIT: The "Industrial Data Foundation Action" was officially launched, focusing on breaking through bottlenecks in the "collection," "aggregation," and "application" of industrial data. The action will carry out pilot efforts in building high-quality industry datasets for AI empowerment, with the goal of fostering a number of industry data cooperation consortiums by the end of 2026, creating trusted interconnection platforms for data in key industries, and establishing four major resource banks including industry data and technological research. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 80~0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and its center moved lower. In addition, as some suppliers transferred cargo to delivery warehouses, circulating supply decreased slightly, and some suppliers intended to narrow their quoted discounts. Mainstream producing areas quoted ex-factory prices at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, supply in the secondary lead market was limited, with little circulating cargo available. Smelters held prices firm on shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some intending to purchase on dips. Enquiry sentiment improved slightly, but spot order market transactions had yet to show significant improvement. In terms of inventory, as of March 11, LME lead inventory stood at 284,875 mt, unchanged again from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to accumulate. Lead Price Forecast for Today: As the delivery of the front-month contract approaches, the spot-futures price spread for refined lead spot has made delivery warehouse shipments profitable in the short term. Coupled with increased supply from the resumption of production at some primary lead smelters in Hunan and the arrival of imported lead cargoes, expectations that social inventory of refined lead will continue to build up are expected to become more evident. Secondary refined lead, upstream enterprises showed low willingness to make shipments. Due to firm scrap battery prices, smelters maintained offers with hold prices firm and reluctance to sell, while the downstream preference for just-in-time procurement of primary lead has not yet improved. Although both supply and demand in the lead market increased in early March, supply growth may precede the recovery in consumption. In the short term, lead market fundamentals remained weak, and lead prices were expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the doldrums. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,934.5/mt and moved sideways around the daily average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it briefly rose to test the $1,940/mt level before weakening again to a low of $1,930/mt. It then rebounded and recovered all losses, touching a high of $1,946/mt before the close and finally settling at $1,945/mt, up $14/mt, or 0.73%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract gapped lower to open at 16,605 yuan/mt. Early in the session, supported by stronger LME lead, it climbed to a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before pulling back and consolidating above the intraday average. It edged up slightly before the close and eventually settled at 16,665 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.15%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly at a standstill, production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries also kept escalating. Three sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration in the US had asked Israel to stop further airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure. This was said to be the first time the US had clearly restrained Israeli military operations since the joint US-Israeli military action against Iran began. The US made this request partly because of concerns that it could push up global oil prices and trigger large-scale Iranian retaliation against energy infrastructure in the Gulf region. The 2026 draft report on central and local fiscal budgets clarified the total national defense expenditure budget, and Zhang Xiaogang introduced this year’s national defense spending arrangements. In 2026, the national general public budget arranged national defense expenditure of 194 billion yuan, up 6.9% from the previous year’s executed amount, of which central government spending was 191 billion yuan, up 7% from the previous year’s executed amount. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and with delivery approaching, some suppliers shifted cargoes to ship to delivery warehouse, reducing shipment pressure and relatively narrowing discounts. This was mainly reflected in primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with ex-works quotations in mainstream producing areas ranging from discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters held prices firm in shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted ex-works around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. As arrivals of imported lead increased, however, discounts on individual secondary refined lead quotations widened to 200 yuan/mt ex-works. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, mainly purchasing primary lead, and transactions relatively improved. Inventory: As of March 10, LME lead inventory stood at 284,875 mt, flat from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued its accumulating trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Recently, downstream enterprises have still mainly been digesting inventories, with low enthusiasm for procurement and stockpiling. After lead ingot inventories accumulated at medium- and large-scale smelters in Henan and other regions, they were continuously transferred to social warehouses. For secondary refined lead, as scrap battery prices remained firm while lead prices were in the doldrums, smelters showed low enthusiasm for shipments and ramping up operating rates, and discounts in spot secondary refined lead quotations narrowed, with downstream just-in-time procurement tilting toward primary lead. In addition, secondary refined lead will enter delivery as substitutes, coupled with replenishment from imported lead, refined lead social inventory is expected to find it difficult to reverse the short-term trend of continued accumulation, and lead prices remain under pressure.

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Coexistence of Energy Supply Pressure and Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup May Lead to Continued Price Consolidation] The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, obstruction of major shipping routes, and expectations for rising transportation costs are anticipated to increase pressure on Europe's energy supply. After the domestic holiday, the lead market has experienced severe inventory buildup...