July 31, 2026 Whenever economic growth begins to weaken, many investors instinctively turn their attention to gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets. Yet reality is more complex than the familiar "safe haven" narrative. While both precious metals tend to benefit from periods of economic uncertainty over the long term, they often follow very different patterns during recessions. Investors who understand these differences can position their portfolios more effectively. Paradoxically, the prices of both gold—and especially silver—often decline during the initial stages of a severe crisis. This is not because investors suddenly lose confidence in precious metals, but because individuals and institutions urgently need liquidity. In times of market stress, investors frequently sell their most liquid assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls or raise cash. History Shows That Liquidity Comes First During the Initial Phase of a Crisis The global financial crisis of 2008 provides a clear example. As the crisis intensified, the gold price fell from nearly US$1,000 to around US$700 per ounce before recovering by year-end and eventually reaching new all-time highs. Silver suffered a much sharper decline, dropping from approximately US$21 to below US$9 per ounce, a decline of more than 50%, while gold lost only about 12% during the same period. A similar pattern emerged during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Both precious metals initially declined sharply, but silver once again proved considerably more volatile, falling from around US$18 to US$12 per ounce within just a few weeks. Gold also weakened but experienced a much more moderate correction. History repeatedly demonstrates that the urgent need for liquidity can temporarily drive down the prices of both gold and silver. Yet it also shows that investors who panic and sell during these periods often miss the powerful recovery that typically follows. Once the Recovery Begins, Silver Historically Outperforms Gold This is where the second—and perhaps most important—historical pattern emerges. During the recovery phase following a recession, silver has historically outperformed gold by a considerable margin. Following the 2008 financial crisis, silver gained approximately 400% from its lows, while gold appreciated by roughly 170%. This outperformance generally begins once the urgent need for liquidity subsides and investors return to risk assets. The same phenomenon occurred after the initial COVID-19 market shock. During 2020, silver advanced by nearly 48%, while gold gained approximately 25%. One of the primary reasons for silver's stronger performance is its dual role. Gold functions primarily as a monetary asset and store of value. Silver, by contrast, combines monetary demand with substantial industrial demand. As economic conditions improve, both sources of demand recover simultaneously, providing additional support for silver prices. Why Gold Performs Well During Recessions Gold benefits from several supportive factors during economic downturns. Central banks typically lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate economic activity, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. At the same time, demand increases for assets without counterparty risk, particularly as confidence in equities, bonds, and sometimes even financial institutions begins to deteriorate. A review of six major U.S. recessions shows that gold prices increased during five of those downturns, declining only modestly during the 1990–1991 recession. There is, however, an important exception. If central banks aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation—as they did in the early 1980s, when U.S. interest rates reached nearly 20%—gold can come under pressure even while the broader economy is contracting. The Great Depression: An Extreme Case A depression differs from a normal recession in both its severity and duration and is often accompanied by deflation. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, the official U.S. gold price remained fixed at US$20.67 per ounce under the gold standard. Gold's ability to preserve wealth therefore appeared not through price appreciation but through its purchasing power. As consumer prices fell by approximately 24%, gold maintained its nominal value, resulting in a significant increase in real purchasing power. In 1934, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt raised the official gold price to US$35 per ounce, effectively increasing its value by approximately 69% overnight. This change resulted from government policy rather than market forces. At roughly the same time, the U.S. government issued Executive Order 6102, requiring private citizens to surrender much of their gold holdings. This historical episode illustrates that during severe depressions characterized by fixed exchange rates or a gold standard, government policy may exert greater influence over precious metals than normal market supply and demand. Similar developments occurred in Europe during the Napoleonic Wars, when Austria, following its defeat at the Battle of Austerlitz, devalued its currency by roughly 80% against gold. What This Means for Investors Several practical lessons emerge from history. First, short-term declines in gold—and particularly in silver—during the early stages of a crisis should not be interpreted as evidence that precious metals have failed. Rather, they reflect the market's temporary scramble for liquidity. Second, investors who maintain long-term holdings of physical gold and silver in the form of coins or bullion have historically benefited disproportionately from the subsequent recovery, with silver generally delivering the stronger rebound. Third, stagflationary environments—where weak economic growth coincides with persistent inflation, as experienced during the 1970s—have historically been particularly favorable for silver because both its monetary and industrial demand tend to strengthen simultaneously. For investors seeking to protect their wealth against the uncertainties of a recession—or even a full-scale depression—gold and silver should therefore be viewed not as short-term speculative trades, but as long-term components of a well-diversified investment portfolio. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-during-a-recession-how-do-precious-metals-really-perform

Published: Jul 29, 2026 - 3:35 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is struggling to hold support above $4,000 and could face further selling pressure, as one bank says a recovery remains unlikely as long as the war in Iran persists. On Tuesday, commodity analysts at Commerzbank led by Thu Lan Nguyen downgraded their gold price forecast for the second time in as many months. The German bank now expects gold prices to end the year around $4,500 an ounce, down from its revised June forecast of $4,800. At the same time, Commerzbank also lowered its year-end silver price target to $67 an ounce from its previous estimate of $80 an ounce. In the report, Nguyen said the price downgrade reflects the fact that persistent inflation pressures continue to force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias. However, she added that market expectations have become too aggressive, giving gold prices some room to recover from their current lows by the end of the year. She added that gold still has a path to $5,000 an ounce in 2027 if inflation pressures moderate. However, she said the biggest factor remains the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran, saying that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to overshadow all the bullish factors that drove gold prices to record highs at the start of the year. “This is partly because the US, as an energy exporter, benefits from the current energy crisis – as evidenced by the sharp rise in its oil exports in recent months. The risk premiums in the foreign exchange market are sending a similar signal: After Liberation Day – i.e. the introduction of extensive US tariffs by the US government – hedging against a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro became significantly more expensive (as reflected in positive EUR-USD risk reversals, see figure below). Since the outbreak of the Iran war, however, the dollar has again been regarded as safer than the euro. As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens,” she said. Despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Commerzbank said there is little evidence that the conflict is having a lasting impact on the U.S. economy. Nguyen pointed out that although near-term inflation pressures have increased, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. She said that in this environment, it is unlikely the Federal Reserve will adopt a sufficiently aggressive monetary policy stance to alter gold's longer-term bullish outlook. “There is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates only if inflation trends force them to do so,” she said. “Our economists’ base-case scenario, in which core inflation does not rise significantly above the assumed monthly rates consistent with the target in the coming months, remains unchanged. In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027.” Nguyen explained that although gold’s months-long correction has damaged market sentiment, there are still significant long-term drivers supporting higher prices. Nguyen said the bank's long-term bullish outlook remains intact because the structural drivers that fueled gold's rally earlier this year have not disappeared. She noted that growing skepticism toward the U.S. dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset, driven by unpredictable U.S. policy, continues to support demand for bullion. At the same time, the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves has prompted many central banks to reassess the security of their reserve assets, accelerating diversification into gold. Finally, mounting government debt across advanced economies has raised concerns about the long-term safety of sovereign bonds, further enhancing gold's appeal as an asset that is institutionally independent and carries no default risk. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-28/commerzbank-downgrades-gold-and-silver-prices-middle-east-conflict-takes

July 27, 2026 After several months of correction, the silver market is once again attracting increased investor attention. Following significant price declines earlier this year, signs of stabilization have begun to emerge. The US$60 per ounce level is increasingly developing into the key technical hurdle. A sustained breakout above this level could trigger the next leg higher, while another rejection would likely point to continued volatility in the near term. Silver Benefits from Both Industrial and Investment Demand Unlike gold, silver serves a dual purpose. In addition to its role as a precious metal and store of value, it is also an essential industrial metal. Demand from the solar industry, electronics, electric vehicles, and numerous high-tech applications remains robust, contributing to a physical market that has been operating in structural deficit for several consecutive years. Industry analysts expect this supply deficit to persist throughout 2026. The broader macroeconomic backdrop also remains supportive. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising energy prices, and growing concerns about stagflation continue to enhance the appeal of precious metals. While gold is primarily viewed as a monetary safe haven, silver also benefits from its industrial applications and therefore often responds even more dynamically to changes in the global economic outlook. US$60 Remains the Key Technical Level Following several consecutive sessions of gains, silver recently traded just below—or briefly around—the US$60 per ounce level. As a result, this price area has become the market's primary technical resistance. Many market observers believe that a sustained move above US$60 would represent an important breakout, potentially opening the door to further upside. At the same time, volatility remains elevated. Temporary pullbacks toward the US$57–58 range demonstrate that profit-taking can emerge at any time, while investor sentiment continues to react quickly to movements in Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical developments. Nevertheless, the short-term technical picture has improved noticeably. Several technical analysts point to strengthening momentum after silver reclaimed key moving averages during the recent recovery. Fundamentals Continue to Support the Market From a fundamental perspective, the outlook also remains constructive. The global energy transition continues to drive demand for silver in solar panels, power grids, and electronic components. At the same time, the metal is becoming increasingly important in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and advanced electronics. Should inflation remain persistent while real interest rates begin to decline again over the medium term, both gold and silver are likely to benefit. However, silver enjoys an additional advantage: unlike gold, it is supported by both investment demand and industrial consumption. Conclusion The silver market is approaching an important decision point. In the short term, price action will continue to be driven by geopolitical developments, oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and interest-rate expectations. Over the medium to long term, however, the combination of strong industrial demand, an ongoing structural supply deficit, and an increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment continues to provide a supportive backdrop for silver. Whether this ultimately develops into the next major rally will largely depend on whether silver can establish itself convincingly above the US$60 level. A successful breakout would significantly improve the technical outlook and shift investors' attention toward the next major resistance zones. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-price-approaches-a-key-turning-point-will-it-break-above-ususd60

July 27, 2026 The potential bottoming process in the gold market around the US$4,000 level remains highly volatile. After breaking above the downtrend line that had capped prices since the end of May, gold quickly rallied to US$4,165 before giving back almost all of those gains yesterday as tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and rising oil prices escalated once again. Price action around the psychologically important US$4,000 level therefore remains fragile and extremely volatile. One day, gold gains US$100; the next, it gives back US$100. Nevertheless, the prospects for a successful bottoming process, followed by a trend reversal and a broader recovery—or even a summer rally—remain intact. Gold Reflects the Reshaping of Global Markets Financial markets continue to be driven by an unusually dense combination of geopolitical uncertainty and structural changes in the global monetary system—and nowhere is this more evident than in the gold market. Following its record high of approximately US$5,600 per ounce in January, gold corrected sharply to just below US$4,000, pressured by profit-taking, the Iran war, rising interest rate expectations, and a modest strengthening of the U.S. dollar. During the second quarter alone, gold declined by around 14%, while silver lost approximately 22%. However, interpreting this correction as the end of gold's long-term bull market would confuse a cyclical pullback with a structural change in the market. The underlying fundamentals continue to support the view that January's record high did not mark the end of the secular bull market. Central Banks Remain the Primary Driver The underlying pillar of the gold bull market continues to be central bank demand. Over the past four years, central banks around the world have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually—roughly double the pace seen during the previous decade. According to the latest survey by the World Gold Council, 45% of reserve managers expect to increase their gold holdings over the next twelve months. This trend is not simply a short-term hedge against market volatility, but rather reflects a long-term strategy of diversifying away from the U.S. dollar as the sole anchor of the global monetary system. De-Dollarization Continues to Gain Momentum The broader geopolitical landscape reinforces the ongoing trend toward de-dollarization. While the United States continues its aggressive—but strategically unfocused and, under international law, illegal—military campaign and air war against Iran using the weapons of the 20th century, Tehran has responded with an asymmetric strategy. One U.S. military installation after another across the Middle East is being targeted with remarkable precision using missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. Before long, the United States may find itself running short not only of precision-guided munitions and air defense systems—including air-to-air, surface-to-air, and missile defense interceptors—but also of viable operating bases. Without functioning runways and adequate fuel supplies, the paradigm shift in modern warfare unfolding over the Persian Gulf may become impossible to ignore, even for the West. The precision of Iran's attacks is, of course, being significantly supported by China and Russia, as neither country is prepared to allow Iran to collapse. Against this backdrop, one of the most remarkable developments in recent weeks has received relatively little attention. Beginning July 24, China's largest banks—including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)—will suspend retail paper gold trading through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Officially, the move is intended as a risk-management measure following a period of elevated volatility during which retail investors suffered significant losses on leveraged products. Speculative paper-gold trading is being curtailed, while physical gold ownership, gold savings plans, gold ETFs, and the reserve strategy of the People's Bank of China remain unaffected. Regardless of the official justification, the move can also be interpreted as another step away from a financial system in which Western paper markets such as COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) facilitate price discovery through extensive leverage, allowing multiple paper claims to exist for every physical ounce of gold. By encouraging Chinese investors to shift toward physical ownership, China is gradually changing the balance of power between the paper and physical gold markets. The development recalls historical precedents such as the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968, although this time the transition is more likely to be gradual, orderly, and largely unnoticed. Geopolitics Meets Stagflation This monetary realignment is unfolding against a geopolitical backdrop that has become increasingly concerning even for seasoned market observers. According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, the conflict in the Middle East is already weighing measurably on global economic growth, which is projected to reach only around 3.1% in 2026. At the same time, warnings from former U.S. military officials regarding Iran's asymmetric strategy against U.S. and Israeli air forces operating in the Gulf underscore how fragile the regional security architecture has become. For gold, traditionally regarded as a crisis hedge and store of value, this environment represents a structural tailwind—even if higher interest rates and persistent demand for U.S. dollar liquidity have weighed on prices in the short term. Meanwhile, the sharp rise in oil prices over the past three weeks has brought the stagflation scenario that we have repeatedly outlined back into focus. Stagflation—the toxic combination of weak economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment—creates a particularly difficult environment for investors, as conventional monetary policy tools often become ineffective or even counterproductive. During such periods, financial assets and fixed-income investments tend to lose purchasing power in real terms, while tangible assets such as commodities, defensive high-quality equities, and particularly gold have historically served as reliable stores of value. Gold as a Top Performer During Stagflation Every economic regime favors different asset classes. © VanEck Gold tends to perform particularly well during periods of stagflation because its value does not depend on the creditworthiness of an issuer and it cannot be eroded by negative real interest rates. When inflation remains persistently high, economic growth weakens, and confidence in fiat currencies, government bonds, and policymakers continues to deteriorate, gold regains its traditional role as a scarce, liquid, and globally recognized store of value. The experience of the 1970s illustrates this dynamic particularly well. During that decade's stagflationary environment, gold not only served as an effective hedge but also became one of the very few asset classes capable of preserving purchasing power in real terms. Gold Battles Around the US$4,000 Level – Bottoming Process Remains Intact Gold in U.S. Dollars, Daily Chart as of July 24, 2026. © Gold.de Since the latest sharp decline ended at US$4,023 on June 11, gold has been attempting to establish a bottom around the psychologically important US$4,000 level. After six weeks, this process has produced a nervous back-and-forth trading pattern and one lower low at US$3,942. At the same time, however, the bears have failed to make any decisive progress over the past six weeks. The weekly chart remains clearly oversold, while the daily chart continues to display positive divergences, suggesting at least the potential for a technical rebound. On some days, buyers regain control and push gold US$100 to US$200 higher within hours. A few days later, the bears return, quickly reclaiming most of those gains on heavy trading volume. It is a highly volatile battle in an exceptionally challenging market environment, with equity markets repeatedly coming under pressure, bond yields moving higher, and rising oil prices once again dominating the news flow. A Move Above US$4,100 Could Trigger the Next Rally The gold bulls nevertheless scored an important technical victory on Tuesday when prices broke above a downtrend line that had been in place since the end of May. Although nearly all of those gains were surrendered again on Thursday, the overall market structure has improved modestly. Should gold now manage to reclaim and hold above the US$4,100 level, another key downtrend line would be eliminated. Such a breakout could open the way toward the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, currently located around US$4,181, followed by the declining 50-day moving average near US$4,231. If the current bottoming process ultimately develops into a confirmed trend reversal, gold could, under favorable conditions, advance toward the 200-day moving average, now situated around US$4,494. This average currently aligns closely with the broader downtrend that has been in place since the January peak and therefore remains the key technical reference for the medium-term outlook. Overall, our expectations remain unchanged. We continue to believe that the bottoming process is likely to succeed and still see a recovery toward US$4,200 and US$4,300, with a subsequent move toward approximately US$4,500 remaining a realistic possibility. However, we are not yet prepared to declare that the broader correction has come to an end. Conclusion: Nervous, but the Bottoming Process Remains Intact While the gold market continues to be driven in the short term by geopolitical developments, interest-rate expectations, U.S. dollar movements, and oil prices, the broader picture remains supportive for precious metals. The fact that gold has so far managed to defend the US$4,000 area despite the recent sharp swings is less a sign of weakness than evidence of a market attracting value-oriented buyers following a significant correction. As long as central banks continue to accumulate gold, geopolitical risks remain elevated, and real interest rates fail to provide a compelling alternative, the longer-term market structure remains constructive. The combination of slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and increasing global uncertainty continues to support gold's role as a monetary safe haven. Stagflation is not an environment in which investors typically chase high-growth assets. Instead, it is one in which scarcity, liquidity, and capital preservation regain importance. Historically, these have been precisely the conditions under which gold has demonstrated its greatest strength—not as a perfect predictor of the next trading session, but as a strategic hedge in an increasingly fragile economic and monetary landscape. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-nervous-but-the-bottoming-process-remains-intact

July 10, 2026 Although the price of gold has regained the $4,100-per-ounce mark, analysts at Metals Focus say the precious metal is set to undergo a summer consolidation for the time being. However, this phase offers promising prospects: Later in the year, strong fundamental drivers are likely to push the price significantly higher again. Interest rate fears and a seasonal lull are dampening short-term momentum Currently, the market is primarily on edge due to U.S. monetary policy. New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the immense investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence, are keeping inflation stubbornly high. This is fueling market concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again this year. For gold, which generates no current income, rising opportunity costs represent a strong headwind and cap any rapid upward breakout. Compounding this is the typical seasonal weakness. July and August are traditionally considered slow months for physical demand. The already high price level has recently caused a noticeable slowdown in jewelry consumption and general retail interest. Even though there are initial, tentative signs of recovery in key Asian markets such as China and India, the typically strong demand phase there will not begin until late summer at the earliest. The current trading range is therefore likely to persist throughout the summer months. Structural drivers remain intact: Comeback expected in the fall Despite these short-term hurdles, experts at Metals Focus do not see the broader bull market as being in any danger. A breakout from the sideways trend will become more likely once the market’s interest rate speculation cools down. There are strong indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ultimately leave key interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026. To avoid an economic slowdown or even a recession, policymakers are likely to grudgingly tolerate moderate inflation above their target, according to the analysts. As soon as the market prices in this easing of monetary policy—expected sometime during the third quarter—the gold price will once again have room to rise. The structural pillars underpinning the recent record-breaking rally remain unshaken, according to Metals Focus. Persistent geopolitical risks—particularly given Iran’s focus on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz—continue to warrant high risk premiums. Coupled with the mounting uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, the ambitious valuations in the stock markets, and concerns about the U.S. dollar, the fundamentals for the precious metal remain extremely robust. Those who weather the current summer lull will be well-positioned: In the medium term, gold remains the preferred safe haven and an essential component of portfolio diversification, the report concludes. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-a-summer-breather-before-the-next-rally

July 9, 2026 Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, gold is losing its lustre as a safe haven for the time being. Rather than benefiting from the renewed tensions between the US and Iran, precious metals remain in the stranglehold of macroeconomic factors: A sharp rise in oil prices, climbing US yields and a strengthening dollar are dominating market activity, pushing spot gold down to around US$4,074 per ounce, whilst silver slips to around US$58.12. Macroeconomics trumps geopolitics Even following the weak US labour market report for June, which briefly fuelled hopes of a more accommodative monetary policy, the outlook for precious metals looked positive. However, this positive effect quickly faded with the publication of the latest Fed minutes , which underline the US Federal Reserve’s continued focus on persistent inflation. At the same time, the military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is driving massive market volatility. Following clashes between the US and Iran, oil prices surged sharply, with WTI and Brent initially soaring by around six per cent to US$74.93 (WTI) and US$78.73 (Brent) per barrel respectively. However, this crisis situation did not trigger a flight-to-safety reaction for the price of gold. Rather, the surge in oil prices fuelled fresh inflation fears and expectations of higher interest rates in the longer term. As a result, the yield on ten-year US government bonds climbed to over 4.58 per cent, pushing the dollar index to its highest level since early July. Silver was hit even harder, as concerns over the industrial economy put further downward pressure on its price and widened the gap with gold even further. Key technical levels in focus Due to these economic headwinds, the bears have taken the upper hand in the short term. Spot gold hit a five-day low of US$4,022 and failed in its attempt to reclaim the 20-day moving average. On the downside, a break below the US$4,041.65 level is now seen as the next negative signal, which could pave the way towards US$3,942.10 and US$3,886.46. For a noticeable improvement in the chart picture, prices would first need to break through the resistance zone between US$4,162.36 and US$4,214.34 in order to target the 50-day moving average at US$4,372.44. Technical weakness is also weighing on sentiment for silver. The market recently tested the key support zone between US$59.44 and US$58.53. If this level gives way, there is a risk of further declines down to the region around US$55.60 or even US$50.00. Only a return above US$63.28 would unlock new potential and once again make the moving averages beyond the US$70 mark realistic targets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/current-gold-and-silver-prices-rising-interest-rates-and-the-us-dollar-are-holding-back-precious