SMM May 18 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.47%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.22%. SHFE lead fell 0.67%, SHFE zinc fell 0.91%. SHFE tin fell 3.26%. SHFE nickel fell 1.17%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.1%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.54%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.82%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.98%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.99%, rebar fell 1.02%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.89%, stainless steel fell 1.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.12%, the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.28%. LME aluminum fell 0.63%, LME lead fell 0.2%. LME zinc fell 0.81%. LME tin fell 0.05%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.59%, hitting an intraday low of $4,483.5/oz; COMEX silver fell 3.34%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.61%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 9.38%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.36%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.92%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 3.77%, at 2,590 points. As of 11:41 on May 18, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,235 yuan/mt, down 1,515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,160 yuan/mt, down 1,485 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again today... Macro Front China: [NBS: Industrial Value-added of Enterprises above Designated Size Grew 5.6% in January-April; National Economy Maintained Steady and Progressive Development] From January to April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, effectively implemented more proactive macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience continued to be demonstrated, employment and prices remained generally stable, new growth drivers grew stronger, and high-quality development advanced toward new and better directions. NBS data showed: from January to April, the industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% YoY. By three major sectors, mining grew 5.5% YoY, manufacturing grew 5.8%, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.5%. Equipment manufacturing value-added grew 8.7% YoY, and high-tech manufacturing value-added grew 12.6%, respectively 3.1 and 7 percentage points faster than overall industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size. By economic type, state-controlled enterprises grew 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; private enterprises grew 5.2%. By product, production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY respectively. In April, industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size grew 4.1% YoY and 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business activity expectations index was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to March, total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. [NBS: In April, New Home Sales Prices in First-Tier Cities Rose MoM; Declines in Second- and Third-Tier Cities Narrowed or Remained Unchanged from the Previous Month] NBS: In April, new home sales prices in first-tier cities rose 0.1% MoM, with the increase narrowing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively, while Beijing fell 0.2%. New home sales prices in second-tier cities fell 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New home sales prices in third-tier cities fell 0.3% MoM, with the decline unchanged from the previous month. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 21 cities saw new home sales prices rise or remain flat MoM, an increase of 5 from the previous month. [Shenzhen Property Market Remains Hot; Housing Provident Fund Loan Share Rises Significantly] The latest statistics showed that the share of housing provident fund loans rose significantly after the new policy, reflecting from one perspective that the new policy precisely released rigid and improvement-oriented housing demand, market confidence strengthened, and transaction activity remained robust. As of May 17, citywide primary and secondary residential net signings totaled 5,526 units, up 39.2% YoY. (Shenzhen Release) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.09%, at 99.34. According to the Financial Times, two US Fed officials nominated by President Trump opposed allowing Powell to serve as interim Fed Chairman "without a time limit." This underscored that political divisions within the central bank are deepening amid the White House's continued attacks on the US Fed. Fed Chairman Powell's second term ended on Friday. Before his formal successor Warsh completes his inauguration, Powell was appointed as interim chairman to carry out duties. Milan and Bowman, nominated by Trump to the Fed's Board of Governors, stated in a joint statement that they supported Powell temporarily serving as interim chairman, but because the arrangement was "without a time limit," they "could not support this action." Milan cast a dissenting vote, while Bowman abstained. Milan and Bowman stated that Powell's interim chairmanship "should be limited to a clear and finite timeframe, at minimum one week," but they "could support a maximum term of one month." DoubleLine Capital CEO Gundlach said investors will not see an interest rate cut at the next US Fed policy meeting. "People had expected two rate cuts this year, but the inflation market simply isn't cooperating," Gundlach said. "In my view, when the 2-year Treasury yield is nearly 50 basis points above the federal funds rate, it is simply impossible to cut interest rates." Gundlach said newly confirmed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is taking office during a "difficult period." Gundlach said: "DoubleLine's model suggests the next CPI reading will start with a '4'." Additionally, according to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 95.0%, with a 0.7% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 4.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. (Jin10 Data) Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, said that as investors grow increasingly concerned about inflation, the US Fed needs to keep pace with the bond market or risk losing control over borrowing costs. He noted that given the current market environment is "no longer" suitable for an easing stance, the US Fed should remove its easing bias at the June meeting. "If the Fed fails to remove this bias, investors will conclude that the Fed is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium," Yardeni said. "We expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and pivot to a tightening policy stance." Yardeni added that the current economic backdrop no longer justifies an easing bias, let alone rate cuts. Instead, he believes a more hawkish Warsh than the market expects could actually benefit Trump by helping to suppress long-term Treasury yields. (Jin10 Data) Data: The US May NAHB Housing Market Index and China's April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD) are scheduled for release today. Also noteworthy: the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance; the National Energy Administration publishes total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting is being held through May 19. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks rose. WTI crude rose 2.21%, Brent crude rose 1.83%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, with Netanyahu speaking with Trump to "discuss the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran." Trump warned, "Time is running out for Iran, they had better act quickly or they will have nothing left. Time is of the essence!" Brown Brothers Harriman global markets strategy head Elias Haddad judged: "The Strait of Hormuz blockade will continue to be the dominant market driver, as there is no clear resolution in sight and the global oil inventory buffer is shrinking rapidly. Therefore, crude oil prices face further upside risk, which will simultaneously weigh on global bond and equity markets." (Wallstreetcn) Iraq's new Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair said at a press conference on the 16th that the country exported approximately 10 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in April, far below the approximately 93 million barrels per month before the US-Israel-Iran conflict erupted. Khudair said Iraq plans to increase the flow through the pipeline connecting Iraq's Kirkuk to Turkey's Ceyhan port to boost exports. However, if the war does not end, Iraq's crude oil exports cannot return to pre-war levels. Iraq plans to engage in dialogue and cooperation with OPEC to enhance the country's export capacity. (Jin10 Data) In addition, Ukraine's Security Service said Ukraine struck a refinery and two oil pumping stations in Russia's Moscow region. Furthermore, a latest opinion poll in Japan showed that 70% of Japanese citizens believe the government should call for energy-saving measures in the face of crude oil undersupply. Recently, Japan's crude oil imports plummeted, and the country has released strategic petroleum reserves twice, sparking widespread concern. Kyodo News conducted a telephone survey from the 16th to the 17th, asking the public about crude oil and derivative supply shortages. The survey results released on the 17th showed that 70.5% of respondents said the Japanese government should call for measures to conserve energy and resources. Regarding naphtha, a key raw material for producing plastics, 70.6% of respondents said they "feel uneasy" due to supply shortages. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► Other metals spot midday commentary will be updated shortly. Please refresh to view~

SMM Nickel News, May 18: Macro and market news: (1) Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that from January to April, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% YoY in real terms. In April, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 4.1% YoY. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size in April increased 0.05% from the previous month. (2) Russian President Putin will pay a state visit to Beijing from May 19 to 20. The visit is part of routine diplomatic interactions between Moscow and Beijing. Spot market: On May 18, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,550 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -500-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract dipped then rebounded in the morning session, closing at 142,200 yuan/mt, down 1.17%. After the previous rally in nickel prices, concentrated profit-taking by bulls, combined with high inventory levels and pessimistic macro sentiment, led to significant capital outflows, and nickel prices came under pressure with a sharp correction. However, the cost floor support from elevated sulphur prices still exists, and expectations for tighter supply going forward remain strong, leaving room for nickel prices to rise and recover. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 142,000-152,000 yuan/mt.

Conference Name: AIAC 2026 SMM (15th) Aluminum Industry Annual Conference Conference Date: October 12-13, 2026 Conference Venue: Guiyang, China Conference Theme: Long-term Contracts · Trade · Market Trends Organizer: SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. In 2026, the global aluminum industry is at a critical juncture of profound transformation and strategic transition. As the world's largest aluminum producer (accounting for approximately 60% of global aluminum production), China's industrial dynamics profoundly influence the global market landscape. The industry currently faces multiple challenges and opportunities, including global resource allocation and import dependence, the supply-demand pattern of alumina and aluminum, long-term contract trading models and risk management, and responses to geopolitical tensions and trade barriers. Against this backdrop, China's aluminum industry urgently needs to achieve breakthroughs through technological innovation, enhance efficiency and set benchmarks through management upgrades, and ultimately realize a strategic leap from "scale advantage" to "quality advantage," advancing steadily on the path of high-quality development. Thisis scheduled to be held in Guiyang on October 12-13, 2026. Organized by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., the conference will focus on global bauxite allocation strategies, innovation in long-term contract pricing models, optimization of price forecasting models, application of risk hedging tools, energy transition pathways, and technological innovation directions, aiming to help enterprises seize opportunities for high-quality development of the aluminum industry under the "dual carbon" goals and achieve sustained industrial growth. Conference Value | Conference Value This conference focuses on upstream resource security, long-term contract trade, market insights and price forecasting, risk hedging, energy transition, and technological innovation sharing, with particular emphasis on global bauxite allocation, the supply-demand balance of alumina and aluminum, and long-term contract pricing models. It aims to help enterprises grasp market trends, optimize resource allocation, address trade challenges, and promote the healthy development of the aluminum industry. Attendees | Attendees This conference will invite representatives from premium enterprises across the aluminum industry chain (bauxite, alumina, aluminum, aluminum processing), traders, end-users, government leaders, trade associations, authoritative experts, industry research institutions, financial institutions, and other industry representatives. The conference is expected to attract over 500 attendees. Past Conference Guests Company Name Company Representative Name Name Job Title Job Title Main Products Main Products Shandong Aluminium Industry Association SHANDONG ALUMINIUM INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION Wen Xianjun Former Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), Honorary President of Shandong Aluminium Industry Association China Aluminum International Trading Group Co., Ltd. China Aluminum International Trading Group Co., Ltd. Li Guangfei Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, General Manager Aluminum, alumina, bauxite SPIC Aluminum International Trading Co., Ltd. State Power Investment Corporation Aluminum International Trading Co., Ltd. Liu Renjian General Manager Bauxite, alumina, aluminum and related products Gansu Dongxing Aluminium Co., Ltd. Gansu Dongxing Aluminium Co., Ltd. Li Jipeng General Manager Aluminum, aluminum billet, aluminum coil, aluminum rod Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd Jiang Zhen Sales General Manager Alumina, aluminum Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. Qian Yu General Manager Aluminum, aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil Henan Shenhuo International Trading Co., Ltd. HENAN SHENHUO INTERNATIONAL TRADING CO., LTD. Zhang Linhai General Manager Aluminum Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd. Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd Meng Tao General Manager Aluminum Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd. Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd Fan Weiguo Deputy General Manager Aluminum Ningbo Kaiton International Trade Co., Ltd. Ningbo Kaiton International Trade Co. Ltd. Wu Chuanghui General Manager Aluminum, copper cathode Shanxi Zhaofeng Tiancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. Shanxi Zhaofeng Tiancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. Wu Xiaojun Chairman Aluminum plate/sheet and strip Jiangxi Bestoo Energy Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Bestoo Energy Co., ltd. Zhao Yonghua Vice President Aluminum Shaanxi Nonferrous Yulin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Shaanxi Nonferrous Yulin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Gao Wenjie Deputy General Manager Aluminum Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co.,Ltd. Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co.,Ltd. Li Wenchao General Manager Shanghai Russia Xibo Economic and Trade Co., Ltd. Shanghai Russia Xibo Economic and TradeCo..Ltd Deng Gang President of China Marketing Primary Aluminum Luoyang Xiangjiang Wanji Aluminium Co., Ltd. LUOYANG XIANGJIANG WANJI ALUMINIUM Wang Wenjie General Manager Alumina Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Shandong Aluminium Industry Association He Faping President and Secretary General Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Li Zhenlei Director of Industry Information Department Henan Provincial Nonferrous Metals Association Henan Provincel Nonferrous Metals Association Li Ruxi Vice President Shanghai Aluminum Trade Association SHANGHAI ALUMINUM TRADE ASSOCIATION Liu Lilin Secretary General Association Shanghai Aluminum Trade Association SHANGHAI ALUMINUM TRADE ASSOCIATION Shen Yue Deputy Secretary General Association Huolinguole City Aluminum Industry Association Huolinguole City Aluminum Industry Association Gao Jinzhi President, Deputy Director of Huolinguole Municipal People's Congress Standing Committee Huolinguole Regional Economic Cooperation Financial Services Center Huolinguole Regional EconomicCooperation Financial Services Center Wang Kaifei Director Wenshan Prefecture Aluminum Industry Association Wenshan Prefecture Aluminum IndustryAssociation TBD Association * Only a partial list of attending guests is shown. To obtain the complete directory of the 2025 Aluminum Industry Annual Conference, please contact our customer service. Manager Chu (Miya) 13642049827 chuzhaolan@smm.cn Note: After submitting your information, we will contact you regarding your actual registration progress within 1-3 business days! Conference Content | Agenda This year's conference is planned to consist of two full-day main sessions | a processing and trade matchmaking session | a cross-border arbitrage training session | a public competitive bidding procurement session for bulk raw materials by a multinational aluminum giant (the specific company name is not disclosed for now) | an aluminum industry annual gala dinner | and a field trip to local leading aluminum enterprises. The first-day main session focused on upstream changes in the aluminum industry, energy reshaping and zero-carbon technologies, providing insights into the new course of China's aluminum industry under global supply chain restructuring. The second-day core highlights revolved around strategic opportunities arising from the global aluminum supply gap, with a focus on NEV lightweighting, battery foil and other growth segments, while driving aluminum semis toward high-end breakthroughs through digital transformation. Pending. Content Summary | Abstract I. Geopolitical Black Swans and Energy Crisis: Contraction of Aluminum Supply Outside China and Restructuring of Global Trade Flows II. Shifts in the Global Bauxite Supply Chain: Guinea's Policies, Geopolitical Risks and China's Resource Security III. Inert Anode Technology: The "Zero-Carbon Revolution" in the Aluminum Industry and Industrialisation Timetable IV. Middle East Black Swans and China's Opportunities: Aluminum Semis Export Strategy Amid the Global Aluminum Supply Gap V. Reshaping Energy Costs in the Aluminum Industry: From "Securing Supply" to "Reducing Costs" VI. As Electricity Market Reform Deepens, How Much Room Remains for Low-Cost Power in the Aluminum Industry? VII. Lightweighting Applications of Aluminum Alloys Across All NEV Scenarios VIII. Growth Segments for Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil: Demand Explosion in Battery Foil, Energy Storage and Packaging Materials IX. AI Large Models Empowering Aluminum: From Intelligent Electrolysis Cells to Full-Process Digital Factories X. Implementation of Guinea's New Policies: How to Balance Long-Term Contract Supply Security and Localisation Considerations ······ Past Industry Leaders: Wen Xianjun, Former Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) and Honorary President of Shandong Aluminium Industry Association; Mamadou Cherif LY, General Manager of AISC Group; Wito Krisnahad, President of PT Kalimantan Aluminum Company; Ousmane Kaba, Director of Guinea's National Ministry of Mines and Geology; Bachir Diallo, Deputy Director of Guinea's Mining Infrastructure Development Bureau; Dong Chunming, General Manager of Sunlight Metal/ASI Consultant; Wang Lijiao, Deputy General Manager of Henan Mingtai Aluminum Co., Ltd.; Liu Xiaolei, Big Data Director of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.··· *Only a partial list of guest speakers is shown. This year's conference is expected to feature 37+ presentation reports. If you have any questions about the specific arrangements and core content of the conference, please contact us. Contact: Chu Zhaolan Tel: 13642049827 (same number on WeChat) Email: chuzhaolan@smm.cn Conference Official Website Note: After submitting your information, we will contact you regarding your actual registration progress within 1-3 business days!

Supply Contraction Expectations Persisted, MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Payable Indicators Fluctuated at Highs This Week

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: A Zinc Smelter in Peru Shut Down After a Fire; LME Zinc Logged Eight Consecutive Gains] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,558.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly moved lower to test a low below $3,542.5/mt, after which bears reduced open interest. LME zinc then rallied to a multi-year high, reaching above $3,633.5/mt. The center then pulled back slightly, and it finally closed higher at $3,587/mt, up $35/mt, a gain of 0.99%. Trading volume fell to 14,070 lots, and open interest decreased by 139 lots to 242,000 lots.

SMM May 15 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.35%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.7%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc rose 0.2%. SHFE tin fell 1.33%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.7%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.12%, rebar rose 0.34%. Stainless steel fell 0.8%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.72%, coke edged down slightly. Overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.7%. LME aluminum rose 0.21%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc rose 0.99%, hitting an intraday high of $3,633.5/mt, the highest since June 2022. LME tin fell 2.89%. LME nickel fell 1.17%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 3.52%. As of 7:15 AM on May 15, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing in the first four months totaled 15.45 trillion yuan; new loans reached 8.59 trillion yuan; April M2 grew 8.6% YoY] PBOC data showed that, according to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, down 893 billion yuan YoY. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan (down 1.29 trillion yuan YoY); foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent (up 213.4 billion yuan YoY); entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan (down an additional 99.4 billion yuan YoY); trust loans increased by 300 million yuan (down 45.1 billion yuan YoY); undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan (down 199.2 billion yuan YoY); net corporate bond financing was 1.5 trillion yuan (up 739.3 billion yuan YoY); net government bond financing was 4.45 trillion yuan (down 399 billion yuan YoY); domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan (up 65.5 billion yuan YoY). In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 284.29 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Month-end outstanding RMB loans stood at 280.5 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 8.99 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.67 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 5.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 142.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 193.5 billion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was $55.15 billion, up 3.4% YoY. In the first four months, foreign currency loans increased by $6.5 billion. PBOC data showed that at end-April, broad money (M2) balance was 353.04 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) balance was 114.58 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.75 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 653 billion yuan. [PBOC: To conduct 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on May 15 with a 6-month tenor] To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 6 months (184 days), maturing on November 15, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.88. According to Wallstreetcn, US April retail sales posted the strongest gain in 8 months, confirming consumer resilience, but inflationary pressures continued to build. Combined with rising long-term Treasury yields, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have largely faded. US Fed Governor Barr stated that easing liquidity rules to shrink the central bank's balance sheet is a bad idea that could undermine the safety of the financial system. "There has been a lot of discussion recently about shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet to reduce our 'footprint' in the financial system," Barr said in prepared remarks for a conference hosted by the NYU Money Marketeers. "I believe shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals put forward to achieve it would weaken bank resilience, impede the normal functioning of money markets, and ultimately threaten financial stability," Barr said. "Some proposals would actually increase the Fed's 'footprint' in financial markets." Barr noted that allowing banks to reduce their liquidity holdings as a means of shrinking Fed assets could increase the risk that these institutions would need to turn to Fed liquidity facilities when in distress. He said, "The size of the Fed's balance sheet is not the right measure of its influence in financial markets," and in a system where the Fed creates reserves "at no cost," the real focus should be on the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy implementation. (Jin10 Data) According to Reuters, Milan formally submitted his resignation to the US Fed on Thursday local time, setting his departure date on or shortly before the day Waller is sworn in. Waller is expected to be sworn in as Fed Chairman within the coming days. In his resignation letter, Milan continued to warn that interest rates may be too high. He wrote that broader economic trends such as slowing population growth and deregulation would reduce inflation on their own, giving the Fed room to ease policy. He also argued that technical challenges in measuring inflation may cause inflation statistics to overstate actual levels. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. Data: Today will see the release of the US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY, among other data. Also watch: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; FOMC permanent voter and NY Fed President Williams participates in a discussion; US Fed Governor Barr speaks on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends; US President Trump makes a state visit to China. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.99% and Brent up 0.91%. Market concerns over supply disruptions amid the US-Iran conflict persisted, supporting oil prices. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Iran's oil storage is full and Tehran will need to halt oil production. Following the US blockade on Iranian oil exports, the key question in this conflict is: how long can Iran store the oil it cannot export before running out of space. Some analysts believe Iran still has a few weeks of storage capacity, and Tehran has begun slowly cutting production to cope with the standoff. Bessent said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that over the past three days, Iran has been unable to load tankers at its main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, as the US blockade prevented tankers from entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. In the first month of the US blockade, the US military forced 70 vessels allegedly heading to or from Iranian ports to change course. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou stated: according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Goldman Sachs analyst Tallulah Adams noted that the oil market has entered a narrower trading range, with realized volatility over the past 5 days falling to the lowest level since the conflict began, and the market is largely in wait-and-see mode. Weak physical market signals suggest supply remains adequate for the May trading cycle, but Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the coming weeks will be critical as the summer peak demand season is about to arrive. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, two industry sources told Reuters that a Gazprom natural gas processing plant in Russia's southern Astrakhan region suspended motor fuel production after a fire on May 13. The fire was caused by a drone strike. They said the plant suspended operations, including a stabilized condensate processing unit with an annual capacity of 3 million mt that produces gasoline and diesel. According to sources, restoring motor fuel production could take weeks to months. The second source said hydrogen sulfide treatment and sulfur recovery equipment were also damaged in the drone strike. Industry sources said the Astrakhan plant processed 1.8 million mt of stabilized natural gas condensate in 2024, producing 800,000 mt of gasoline, 600,000 mt of diesel, and 300,000 mt of fuel oil. (Jin10 Data)