SMM Nickel News, April 7: Macro and market news: (1) Trump: Tuesday was the deadline for reaching a deal (8:00 AM Wednesday Beijing time); Iran's proposal was not good enough; a plan had been drawn up to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants within 4 hours; rather than letting Iran collect strait tolls, the US should collect them instead. (2) To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, today (April 7), the People's Bank of China conducted 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations through fixed-quantity, rate-tendering, and multiple-price winning methods, with a term of 3 months (89 days) and a maturity date of July 5, 2026. Spot market: On April 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were flat compared with the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,650 yuan/mt, flat compared with the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from 600-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged sharply in the morning session before pulling back, closing at 133,420 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 0.64%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to operate within a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

According to the central bank’s announcement on its open market outright reverse repo tender, on March 16, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations with a tenor of six months (182 days) through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender and multiple-price allotment method.

SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

[Central Bank to Conduct 500 Billion Yuan in Outright Reverse Repo Operations Today] The People's Bank of China announced that it would conduct 500 billion yuan in six-month (182-day) outright reverse repo operations today (March 16) through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering and multiple-price bidding. As 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repo operations mature in March, this operation meant the central bank rolled over 100 billion yuan less in six-month outright reverse repo operations for the month.

SMM Nickel News, March 6: Macro and Market Updates: (1) The central bank announced that, to keep liquidity in the banking system ample, on March 6, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct 800 billion yuan outright reverse repo operations via fixed-amount, interest-rate tender with multiple-price allotment. The tenor will be three months (91 days). (2) Amir Heydari, deputy commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said in an interview on the morning of the 5th local time that Iran had not actually closed the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that military and commercial vessels belonging to the US, Israel, and European countries and their supporters are strictly prohibited from transiting the waters; once discovered, they will be struck. Spot Market: On March 6, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing the morning session at 137,580 yuan/mt, up 0.65%. A rebound in the US dollar index put pressure on nonferrous metal prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuate upward trend, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract may trade in the 135,000-143,000 yuan/mt range.

Nickel prices experienced wild swings WoW as market expectations materialized. From the beginning to mid-week, Indonesia's ESDM Minister revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260-270 million mt, aligning with previous market expectations. The continuous positive developments boosted market sentiment, driving nickel prices higher in both domestic and overseas markets. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract once again broke through the 140,000 yuan/mt mark, while LME nickel prices returned above $18,000/mt. However, a significant technical pullback occurred on Friday (the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday). In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 141,290 yuan/mt this week, up 4,300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,300 yuan/mt WoW, down 650 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Most end-users and traders had already entered the holiday early, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market with participants mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the macro front, the US Fed Chairman attended a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee this week, indicating an intention to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction while reiterating that the inflation rate remains above the long-term 2% target, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period. This stance moderated the previous hawkish expectations following Wash's nomination, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index from highs. Geopolitically, on February 12, Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, hoping to reach a consensus in "about a month." Domestic macro policies maintained an active tone. On Friday, the People's Bank of China conducted 100 billion yuan in 6-month (182-day) one-off reverse repo operations, aiming to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 75,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. At the current stage, expectations regarding Indonesian policy alone cannot support a sustained rise in nickel prices. The support level around 130,000 yuan/mt for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policies, while the resistance above 145,000 yuan/mt remains significant due to high inventory and weak demand. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels, with the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to watch include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected after the holiday, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.