》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE lead rising, up 0.48%. SHFE nickel fell 0.7%, SHFE tin dropped 0.48%, and the rest of the metals saw slight declines, with alumina falling 2.01%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 1.65%, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.09%, the main silicon metal contract increased 0.25%, and the main European container shipping contract surged 2.73%. The ferrous metals series generally declined, with iron ore falling 1.24%, HRC dropping 0.75%, and rebar decreasing 0.42%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 4.01%, and coke dropped 1.81%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals generally rose, with only LME copper falling 0.04%. LME lead increased 0.76%, LME tin rose 0.52%, and LME aluminum gained 0.22%, with the rest of the metals seeing slight fluctuations in their increases. In precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 1.04%, and COMEX silver increased 0.35%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.1%, and SHFE silver fell 0.37%. According to Jordan Roy-Byrne, author of CMT, MFTA, and the book "Gold and Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun," gold is in the early stages of a strong, long-term bull market, with its price potentially rising to $4,500, while silver prices may also exceed $100. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [Ministry of Commerce: Online Sales of Digital Products Increased by 8.4% from January to April, with Smart Robots and Smart Home Systems Rising by 87.6% and 16%] The head of the E-commerce Department of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the development of China's e-commerce from January to April 2025. Digital consumption growth accelerated, with online sales of digital products increasing by 8.4% according to e-commerce big data monitoring, among which smart robots and smart home systems rose by 87.6% and 16%, respectively. Products under the trade-in policy grew rapidly, with online sales of 15 categories of home appliances and digital products increasing by 11.5%, among which three expanded categories of digital products, including mobile phones, rose by 18.5%. Service consumption led the growth, driven by factors such as policy efforts, supply optimization, and holiday economy, with key monitored online service consumption increasing by 12.1%, among which online entertainment and online tourism rose by 31.9% and 25.4%, respectively. [The People's Bank of China Net Injected 36 Billion Yuan in the Open Market] The People's Bank of China conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 106.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net injection of 36 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 23 was 7.1919 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17 was 227,000, compared to market expectations of 230,000 and 229,000 the previous week. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 2,000 last week to a four-week low, indicating that the job market remains healthy despite uncertainties brought about by trade policies. However, the number of continuing claims rose, making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. The US manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3 in May. The flash services PMI stood at 52.3, hitting a two-month high. The index for new orders from enterprises rose to 52.4 from 51.7 in April, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector. The index measuring the prices paid by enterprises for inputs rose to 63.4 from 58.5 in April, reaching its highest level since November 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed would not purchase bonds in primary auctions, as hard data indicated that the economy was performing quite well and had not yet shown clear signs of tariff impacts. Waller still believed that tariffs would lead to one-time price increases, and said that if tariffs were lowered, the Fed was expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro: Today, data such as the revised quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the revised year-on-year non-seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted core retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the revised month-on-month building permits growth rate for the US in April, the revised annualized total building permits for the US in April, the month-on-month retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, the month-on-month core retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, and the annualized total of seasonally adjusted new home sales for the US in April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation; FOMC voters for 2025, St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, will participate in a fireside chat in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the St. Louis Fed to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.82% and Brent crude oil down by 0.79%. OPEC's production policy moves remain the core variable driving oil price trends. At this stage, OPEC member countries are discussing whether to agree to another round of oversized production increases at the June 1 meeting, which could be the third consecutive month that the organization adds extra oil production to the market. Delegates stated that a 411,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) increase in daily production in July was one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement had been reached. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia indicated that an oil price of $60 per barrel was sustainable. If production is further increased, it could signal a clearer intention by OPEC to compete for market share. At a recent meeting, Saudi Arabia, as the leader of OPEC+, warned non-compliant member countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq that if they did not adhere to their quotas, Saudi Arabia might further increase production. Despite Kazakhstan's commitment to make some compensatory measures, the country has not taken substantive steps to restrict international oil companies operating within its borders, and its exports remain near record highs. If major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia push for a larger-scale production increase plan, it could trigger a new round of downward pressure on the crude oil market. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Concerns about the continuous decline in LME copper prices prompt import traders to slightly increase shipments [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review] ► Aluminum prices rebound slightly, and the secondary aluminum market operates steadily [ADC12 Price Daily Review] ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On May 23, nickel salt prices remained stable ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] On May 23, Indonesian MHP prices slightly declined ► Silver prices consolidate, with downstream cautious and trading remaining light [SMM Daily Review]
May 23, 2025 15:28》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 23: Metal Market: Overnight, most of the domestic base metals market fell, with SHFE tin down 0.59%, SHFE copper down 0.12%, SHFE nickel down 0.48%, SHFE lead down 0.51%, SHFE aluminum down 0.17%, and SHFE zinc up 0.22%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore slightly down, stainless steel slightly up 0.04%, rebar flat at 3,059 yuan/mt, and HRC slightly down. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.2%, and coke rose 0.35%. Overnight, LME base metals nearly fell across the board, with LME copper down 0.15%, LME aluminum down 0.61%, LME lead down 0.51%, LME zinc up 0.43%, LME tin down 1.29%, and LME nickel down 0.72%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.56%, and COMEX silver fell 1.39%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.71%, and SHFE silver fell 0.52%. As of 8:22 a.m. on May 23, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Latest Statements from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission Signal Important Developments] At 3 p.m. on the 22nd, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant officials introduced the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answered questions from reporters. Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the "Science and Technology Board" in the bond market will primarily support top-tier equity investment institutions with strong rankings and rich investment experience in issuing bonds. Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, stated that the Ministry of Science and Technology will fully leverage its role as the leading department, further refine the task assignments for constructing the science and technology finance system, and promote the implementation of policy measures. Guo Wuping, spokesperson for the National Financial Regulatory Administration and Director of the Policy Research Department, stated that the initial pilot scale for the long-term investment reform pilot of insurance funds is 50 billion yuan, the second pilot is 112 billion yuan, and the third pilot of 60 billion yuan will be approved soon, bringing the total scale to 222 billion yuan. Yan Bojin, Chief Risk Officer of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Director of the Issuance Supervision Department, stated that in response to the characteristics of technology enterprises, the CSRC has streamlined and optimized listing conditions, continuously enhancing the technological content of newly listed companies. The number of listed companies in strategic emerging industries on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges has approached 2,000, with a market capitalization ratio of nearly 40%. 》Click to view details [PBOC: Conducted RMB 500 billion MLF Operation on May 23 with a One-Year Tenor] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it would conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of RMB 500 billion on May 23, 2025 (Friday), with a one-year tenor, through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding. US Dollar Aspect: The overnight US dollar index rose by 0.33% to close at 99.94. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's massive tax and spending cut bill. Bond vigilantes continued to monitor the global bond market, with the US House narrowly passing President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut bill by a single vote. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, this would increase federal government debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade. Currently, US government debt stands at $36.2 trillion. US corporate activity rebounded in May, but the US's across-the-board tariffs have made imported goods more expensive for businesses and consumers. The S&P Global US Composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 52.1 in May from 50.6 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell last week, and the labour market remained stable, providing some support to the US dollar. The US weekly report also showed that the number of unemployed Americans was close to the level at the end of 2021. In the week ending May 17, the number of Americans filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000. Economists surveyed had expected 230,000 claims. Other Currencies Aspect: The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, suggesting that economic activity may be stalling again. Bert Colijn, an economist at ING, pointed out that the impact of trade conflicts on the economy is more reflected in uncertainty than in direct shocks. The data only showed a slight decline in new overseas orders, while manufacturing output even increased. The services sector was the main reason for this economic slowdown, having previously been the main driver of Eurozone economic growth. Colijn stated that the Eurozone's economic activity still faces downside risks in the short term, as trade conflicts may further escalate. (Huitong Finance) Data Aspect: Today, data such as the UK's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan's April National CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Japan's April National Core CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Germany's Q1 Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly GDP Growth Rate Revised Value, Germany's Q1 Unadjusted Quarterly GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Revised Value, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, the US's April Monthly Building Permits Growth Rate Revised Value, the US's April Annualized Total Building Permits Revised Value, Canada's March Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, Canada's March Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, and the US's April Annualized Total Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales will be released. In addition, it is noteworthy that: FOMC permanent voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams, delivered a keynote speech at the Monetary Policy Implementation Seminar; FOMC voting members for 2025, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto G. Musalem, and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Esther L. George, participated in a fireside chat event in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, with WTI down 1.23% and Brent down 1.36%. The market is paying attention to reports that OPEC is discussing increasing production in July, which has sparked concerns that global supply growth may outpace demand growth. It is reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, forming the OPEC+ alliance, are discussing whether to significantly increase production again at their meeting on June 1. Delegates attending the meeting said that increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in July is one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement has been reached. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week, causing oil prices to fall during the trading session. The EIA stated that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Analysts surveyed had previously expected inventories to decrease by 1.3 million barrels. (Webstock Inc.)
May 23, 2025 08:41》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, overseas base metals generally declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel rising together. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.2%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.03%. SHFE lead led the losses with a decline of 1.21%, while SHFE tin fell by 0.87%. The main alumina contract rose by 1.01%, recording four consecutive gains. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.67%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.14%, the main silicon metal contract fell by 0.19%, and the main European container shipping contract fell by 0.95%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Iron ore led the gains with a rise of 0.14%, stainless steel rose by 0.04%, and HRC rose by 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.85%, and coke fell by 1.66%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, only LME aluminum rose, up by 0.4%. The rest of the metals recorded varying degrees of decline, with LME lead falling by 0.91% and LME tin falling by 0.62%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.49%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.22%, recording five consecutive gains, and SHFE silver rose by 1.06%. Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [State Administration for Market Regulation Seeks Public Comments on Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news from the State Administration for Market Regulation, in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, systematically promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Comments)" has been drafted and is now open for public comments. It mentions that local market regulatory authorities should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of the drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by the manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [Total Installed Power Generation Capacity Nearly 3.5 Billion kW in the First Four Months of This Year] Statistics released by the National Energy Administration show that as of the end of April, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among them, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY; the installed capacity for wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, the total investment in power supply projects by major power generation enterprises nationwide reached 193.3 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY; the total investment in power grid projects reached 140.8 billion yuan, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for RMB financial asset allocation and risk management, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for independent and controllable system operations and secure maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will establish a first-class product system that meets the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will create a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily promoting portfolio margining, launching new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 22 was 7.1903 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.01% to 99.6. Increased market concerns over the growing US debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, highlighted the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion worth of 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was weak. Investors are concerned that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials will deliver speeches that may provide further clues about the economy and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. Macro Aspects: Today, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for France in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for Germany in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May, the Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, the preliminary SPGI Services PMI for the UK in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the UK in May, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders in the UK in May, the CFIB Business Barometer in Canada in May, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17, the continued jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the US in May, and the annualized total of existing home sales in the US in April, among other data, will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens." The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Administration of Financial Regulation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters. The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil Aspects: As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down 1.61% and Brent oil down 1.63%. Kazakhstan continues to overproduce, and OPEC+ may adopt a more aggressive production increase strategy to enforce discipline. Kazakhstan has repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ production quota, with its oil output further increasing by 2% in May to reach 1.86 million barrels per day, far exceeding its quota of 1.486 million barrels per day. This country, which has significantly overproduced, is becoming a headache for cooperation within OPEC+, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. OPEC+ may still consider a more aggressive production increase strategy on June 1 to warn member countries within the organization to strengthen production cut discipline, thereby putting greater supply pressure on the oil market. As Saudi Arabia shifts towards increasing production and demand slows down, the risk of inventory buildup in the oil market is gradually intensifying. According to the IEA's latest monthly report, it is expected that the increase in global crude oil supply in 2025 will far exceed the increase in demand, which is also the mainstream view of the vast majority of research institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly raised its forecast for global supply growth in 2025 by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd, primarily due to Saudi Arabia's shift from adhering to production cuts to accelerating production increases. The IEA also sharply lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.03 million bpd to 730,000 bpd, and further reduced its projection for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 690,000 bpd, citing a global economic slowdown leading to a slowdown in oil product consumption. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.45 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. While the organization remains more optimistic from a seller's perspective, it has to admit that the demand outlook is deteriorating. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] May 22: Indonesian MHP prices slightly decline ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 22: Nickel salt prices remain stable
May 22, 2025 15:22》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 22: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell. SHFE tin dropped 0.67%, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.27%, and SHFE nickel increased slightly. SHFE lead fell 0.83%, and SHFE copper dropped 0.14%. In addition, alumina rose 1.48%. Lithium carbonate increased 0.56%, silicon metal fell 0.25%, and polysilicon dropped 0.55%. The ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore increasing slightly and HRC rising 0.22%. Stainless steel and rebar fell slightly, with declines both within 0.1%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.19%, and coke dropped 1.09%. In overseas metal markets, as of 11:42 a.m., LME metals generally fell. LME copper rose 0.18%, LME aluminum increased 0.59%, LME zinc and LME nickel fell slightly, LME tin dropped 0.32%, and LME lead fell 0.43%. In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold rose 0.81%, and COMEX silver increased 0.4%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.72%, and SHFE silver increased 1.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index fell 3.55%, closing at 2148.1 points. As of 11:42 a.m. on May 22, midday futures market movements for some metals: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 22 Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Inventory: According to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, as of May 22, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 557,000 mt, a destocking of 28,000 mt from Monday. In the short term, the lower arrival of aluminum in east China is conducive to the rise in premiums and discounts. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in demand... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [SAMR Publicly Solicits Opinions on the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news of the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, orderly promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the SAMR has drafted the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Public Comments)" and is now publicly soliciting opinions from society. It mentions that local market regulation departments should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached nearly 3.5 billion kW in the first four months of this year] According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, as of the month-end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among this, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY, and the installed capacity of wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, China's major power generation enterprises completed investments of 193.3 billion yuan in power supply projects, up 1.6% YoY, and investments of 140.8 billion yuan in power grid projects, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for the allocation and risk management of RMB financial assets, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for autonomous control, secure operation, and maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will improve a first-class product system tailored to the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will establish a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily advancing the implementation of portfolio margins, introducing new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1903 RMB per US dollar on May 22 US dollar: The US dollar index continued its downward trend from the previous three trading sessions, remaining in the doldrums. As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell by 0.1% to 99.51. Mounting concerns over the US's ever-increasing debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, underscore the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was sluggish. Investors are worried that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US's debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially offering further clues about the economic outlook and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. In other currency news: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Board Member Asahi Noguchi said that the BOJ should not preset a terminal interest rate during the process of raising interest rates; instead, it should take time to assess the impact of each rate hike on the economy, carefully review the associated risks, and then consider the next rate increase. In his view, there is no need to make significant adjustments to the existing central bank's tapering plan. (Caijing) On the macro front: Today, the following data will be released: flash France May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Germany May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Eurozone May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, flash UK May S&P Global Services PMI, flash UK May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, UK May CBI Industrial Trends Orders, Canada May CFIB Business Barometer, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 10, flash US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and US existing home sales annualized total for April. In addition, it is worth noting that: Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens"; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the relevant situation of science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters; and the European Central Bank (ECB) will publish the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. In the crude oil market: As of 11:42, crude oil futures fluctuated rangebound. US crude oil was flat at $61.57 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.05%. Oil prices came under pressure due to unexpected increases in US crude oil and fuel inventories, raising demand concerns. Additionally, the market remained cautious, keeping an eye on the resumed negotiations between Iran and the US. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil and fuel inventories rose unexpectedly last week, as crude oil imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand declined. In the week ending May 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventory rose by 816,000 barrels to 225.5 million barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 104.1 million barrels. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said, "Although the increase in US inventory has raised concerns, some investors expect that the summer driving season will arrive after the Memorial Day weekend, which is expected to destock inventory and limit further downside room for oil prices." (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Suppliers' sentiment to sell off inventory is evident, with the premium center continuing to move lower [SMM Shanghai spot copper] ► Both inventory and copper prices are declining, with suppliers refusing to budge on prices while selling [SMM South China spot copper] ► The aftermath of the trade war lingers, with China's secondary copper import structure accelerating its reconfiguration [SMM Analysis] ► Destocking in east China exceeds expectations, with suppliers showing strong willingness to refuse to budge on prices [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review] ► [SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices changed relatively little on May 22, with the 20-year US Treasury auction being the worst in five years Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view~
May 22, 2025 11:58[SMM Announcement] SMM Adds New Price Points for Waste Lead-Acid Batteries in Jiangxi Region: Dear Users, Greetings! The secondary lead capacity in Jiangxi region, after experiencing a low point, is now in a phase of recovery and growth. Currently, the annual scrap processing capacity in this region exceeds 1 million mt, accounting for approximately 6.8% of the national total. Additionally, due to its proximity to Anhui province, a major secondary lead production area, enterprises across the lead industry chain have shown significant interest. To help market participants better grasp the market trends of waste lead-acid battery recycling, provide references for enterprise pricing and settlement, and reduce transaction risks and costs, SMM, after thorough market research and analysis, has decided to add three types of waste lead-acid battery prices for the Jiangxi region: waste battery (Jiangxi), waste starter lead-acid battery (black shell) (Jiangxi), and waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) (Jiangxi). These new price points will officially take effect on April 28, 2025.
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