[SMM Silver Express] U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, exceeding market expectations, while payroll gains for March and April were revised upward by a combined 93,000. Following the data release, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the 100 mark and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.52%, as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts weakened. Meanwhile, U.S. technology and AI-related stocks broadly declined, with semiconductor shares leading losses and risk assets coming under pressure. Against the backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and weaker market risk appetite, precious metals experienced broad-based selling. Spot silver fell below the US$70/oz level during the session and ultimately closed down 8.11% at US$67.88/oz.

Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

It’s now been officially one week since combined U.S. and Israeli forces started striking locations within Iran.

The market rebounded in the afternoon, with all three major indices in positive territory and the ChiNext Index showing a stronger trend. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 269 billion yuan, an increase of 91 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Futures-wise, market hotspots rapidly rotated, with over 3,500 stocks rising across the board. In terms of sectors, the commercial aerospace concept surged, with nearly 20 component stocks hitting the daily limit, including Julisuoju which hit two consecutive daily limits, as well as Shunhao Co., Ltd., Zhongchao Holdings, and Western Materials. The oil and gas concept continued to be strong, with Continental Oil hitting two consecutive daily limits. The coal sector was active, with Dayou Energy hitting two daily limits within three days. The PCB concept quickly rose, with Avary Holding and other stocks hitting the daily limit. On the downside, insurance, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals were among the leading decliners. Specifically, the innovative drug concept collectively fell, with Adi Pharmaceuticals and Huisheng Bio experiencing significant declines. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. In terms of sectors Commercial aerospace saw a collective rebound today, with Trigon Defense, Keshun Co., Ltd., Julisuoju, Great Wall Electric, Zaisen Technology, Shunhao Co., Ltd., and Western Materials among the stocks hitting the daily limit. On the news front, recently, GalaxySpace, iSpace, and Tianbing Tech, three commercial aerospace enterprises, updated their progress on listing guidance. Coupled with LandSpace's IPO application being accepted and CAS Space completing its guidance filing, five core enterprises mainly operating carrier rockets have all entered the race, vying for the title of "the first commercial aerospace stock." Aijian Securities stated that 2026 is expected to become the inaugural year of prosperity for China's commercial aerospace industry, with the pace of multiple constellation launches accelerating towards large-scale deployment. It is anticipated that the frequency of rocket launches will rise rapidly. The market size of China's commercial rocket launch services is projected to increase from 10.26 billion yuan in 2025 to 47.39 billion yuan in 2030, corresponding to a CAGR of about 35.8%. From a market perspective, after undergoing continuous adjustments, the short-term selling pressure in the commercial aerospace sector has been relatively fully released. As short-term sentiment continues to recover, it once again attracts concentrated capital inflows for recovery. However, it should be noted that the current market still revolves around rotation and also faces the test of earlier trapped positions. The difficulty for the commercial aerospace sector to initiate a new round of momentum in the short term remains high. After the initial broad-based recovery, only a few individual stocks may manage to sustain a breakout performance. The oil and gas concept remained strong, with Continental Oil and PT. Blue Flame Ruilong hitting the daily limit, and Sinopec Oilfield Services, Potential Energy, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas among the top gainers. On the news front, on January 22, the Brent crude oil benchmark price by Business Society stood at $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from the beginning of the month ($61.33 per barrel). In a recent research report, West Securities reviewed the past three Kondratiev depression periods and found that super cycles of commodities exhibited distinct rotation patterns. Gold led the way in rising, and industrial metals also enjoyed a "safety premium," while energy prices, such as oil, may lag slightly. Given that the strategic oil inventories of the US and OECD have sharply pulled back to historical lows, and the gold-to-oil and copper-to-oil ratios have rapidly risen to historical highs, oil is now significantly undervalued compared to other commodities. The PCB sector strengthened again, with Shenzhen Chongda Technology, Shanghai Jinan Guoji, Avary Holding, and Honghe Technology hitting the daily limit, while Sihui Fushi, Zhongjing Electronics, Shennan Circuit, and Shengyi Technology were among the top gainers. On the news front, it was reported that due to tight supply and soaring prices of raw materials like fiberglass cloth, Japanese semiconductor material manufacturer Resonac announced an increase in the selling price of copper clad laminate (CCL), adhesive films, and other printed circuit board (PCB) materials by over 30% starting from March 1st. GF Securities pointed out that robust AI demand has driven both volume and price increases for PCBs, with AI-PCB companies seeing strong orders, full production, and capacity expansion. The demand for AI CCL is robust, and leading mainland producers are expected to benefit. In terms of individual stocks, from an individual stock perspective, short-term sentiment further recovered today. In the high-standard direction, Fenglong Co., Ltd. rarely achieved 17 consecutive daily limits, and Jiamai Packaging, after another daily limit today, recorded 17 daily limits in 25 days. Additionally, stocks that previously experienced A-shaped declines also saw anti-nuclear recovery, with Guosheng Technology being the most typical, performing a ground-to-ceiling move in the afternoon. Other stocks like Galaxy Electronics, Western Materials, Shunhao Co., and Zaisheng Technology also hit the daily limit, indicating that the previous round of short-term correction has largely concluded. However, it should be noted that during the rapid adjustment, related stocks accumulated significant overhang, and it may be challenging to fully resolve this in the short term. Focus on active stocks with relatively intact chip structures. Additionally, computing hardware stocks also rebounded, with Tengjing Technology and Avary Holding hitting the daily limit, while ZJX Innovations, Shengyi Electronics, Yuanjie Technology, and Eoptolink also saw notable gains. Late January is a period of intensive annual report previews for major publicly listed firms, and performance will once again become a key factor influencing the market. More funds are choosing to flow back into growth tracks with better earnings certainty, and there are still opportunities to find low-entry points during the upward oscillation. Market outlook, today's market showed a rebound, with all three major indices in positive territory, and the ChiNext Index performed strongly, with a slight increase in trading volume. Short-term sentiment also further recovered, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit or rising more than 10% for two consecutive days, and the number of stocks experiencing sharp declines further decreased. It is expected that there is still momentum for short-term recovery, but it is likely to face oscillation and volatility. From the index perspective, the high points left on January 14th remain a key focus. If these can be effectively surpassed during the upward oscillation, with sufficient turnover of chips, it would be more conducive to the continuation of the market trend. From the perspective of the futures market, although short-term sentiment has recovered, the overall market is still dominated by rotation. Various hot topics often experience a certain degree of short-term divergence and consolidation after reaching a climax within a single day. Therefore, keeping pace accurately in response may be key, with a focus on seeking buying opportunities during pullbacks in popular sectors, which often yields a higher win rate. Market Highlights 1. SpaceX's Second-Generation Starlink System Scheduled for 2027, Aiming to Provide Faster Internet Services SpaceX plans to launch its second-generation Starlink system in 2027, aiming to provide faster internet services. The second-generation system is expected to offer 5G-like connectivity, with an overall capacity more than 100 times greater than the first generation and a throughput increase of over 20 times. Based on current progress, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved SpaceX's application this month to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, further enhancing its global internet service capabilities. 2. Beijing Chuanyuezhe Company Books First Batch of Over 20 Space Tourists, Manned Maiden Flight Expected in 2028 Beijing Chuanyuezhe Manned Space Technology Co., Ltd. held a "Global Space Tourism Launch Event," where the full-scale test module of China's first commercial manned spacecraft, "Chuanyuezhe Yi Hao (CYZ1)," was publicly displayed for the first time. The technical team of "Chuanyuezhe Yi Hao (CYZ1)" stated before the event that over three spacecraft have been booked, totaling more than 20 space tourists, with the manned maiden flight expected to take place in 2028. During the event, the first batch of space tourists was introduced, including Li Licheng, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering; Qiu Heng, CMO of Agibot; Wang Jing, founder of the Toread brand; Fu Zhekuan, chairman of Qifu Capital; and additionally, one silicon-based lifeform, the PM01 from Zhongqing Robot. Previously, on January 18, Chuanyuezhe announced that the test module of the manned spacecraft had completed comprehensive verification tests of the landing buffer system, with all indicators meeting expected targets. This signifies that Chuanyuezhe has become the third commercial aerospace enterprise globally to develop and validate manned spacecraft landing buffer technology.

On October 9, China's 有色50ETF abruptly jumped ~5.29%, with strong net subscriptions observed in early trading. Many related stocks soared, particularly copper and precious metal. LME copper has risen ~4.21% over the recent holiday period, and spot gold recently broke above $4,000/oz.