SMM, August 18: Today, offers from smelters and the recycling side in the waste lead-acid battery market held steady. A few smelters raised their purchase offers slightly, but overall price adjustments were limited and the market remained basically stable. Smelter raw material arrivals showed no significant change for the time being but displayed notable regional divergence, with relatively better arrivals in regions with higher purchase prices. Limited by the current thin supply of scrap batteries in circulation, a recycler in North China reported a notable contraction in average daily purchases, from 20-30 mt/day previously to about 7-10 mt/day currently, and the arrival pace was unstable. After lead prices rebounded, the pullback was relatively limited. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment improved slightly from earlier, while rigid demand consumption remained stable but the overall improvement was still limited. Scrap battery prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. Attention will focus on smelters' price adjustment pace and the impact of supply releases from retail outlets on circulation volume.

The dry-basis, tax-inclusive EXW price of iron ore concentrates in East Liaoning edged down to 860 yuan/mt. According to feedback from mines and beneficiation plants, the local price spread between domestic and imported ore is around 60 yuan/mt, while local steel mills generally have a relatively strong desire to bargain down prices and expect to narrow the spread to around 20 yuan/mt. Local mines and beneficiation plants are mostly selling as usual at steel mills' purchase prices. However, iron ore futures recently drifted higher, and the price spread between domestic and imported ore may continue to narrow. Local iron ore concentrate prices are expected to have limited downside room.

Iron ore prices drifted higher this week, the most-traded contract completed its rollover, and the I2609 contract hit an intraweek high of 727 yuan/mt. The price moves were driven mainly by news-related disruptions rather than a substantive improvement in fundamentals. First, BHP’s Port Hedland strike negotiations remained at a stalemate; the 24-hour strike originally scheduled to start on August 9 was postponed to August 18 after consultations, which lifted sentiment somewhat but had a limited impact on actual shipments. Second, market rumors that long-term contract negotiations had started triggered temporary concerns about tight supply of medium- and low-grade ore. At the macro level, the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations at the beginning of the month, signaling looser liquidity and offering warm sentiment support to the market. Fundamentals continued to be weak: extreme weather triggered by Typhoon Dolphin disrupted end-user construction and further weakened steel demand; steel mills became more cautious in procurement; spot market trading was sluggish; and the rise in iron ore prices lacked strong demand-side support. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM This week, China’s iron ore concentrate prices showed mixed performance with pronounced regional divergence. Prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei were basically stable; Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning also remained steady; east China saw prices edge down by 10-15 yuan/mt. In the Tangshan area, the tax-inclusive EXW price of 66% grade iron ore concentrate on a dry basis was quoted at 950-955 yuan/mt, with prices weakening slightly. On the supply side, resources at mine and beneficiation plants remained tight, but had eased somewhat compared with earlier, and overall supply trended looser; mines in other regions mostly maintained normal production according to plan. On the demand side, steel mills mainly purchased as needed, and some mills had already formulated new maintenance plans, weakening rigid demand support for iron ore concentrate; meanwhile, steel mills showed a strong desire to bargain down prices, and the price spread between domestic and imported ore was narrowing. Overall, China’s iron ore prices remained relatively stable this week. Chart: The price spread between domestic and imported ore narrowed slightly this week, and is expected to widen slightly next week Outlook for Next Week Imported Ore: Looking ahead to next week, iron ore prices may continue to move sideways in a narrow range, with both upward and downward drivers insufficient. Fundamentals-wise , end-use demand is unlikely to improve in the near term: new typhoons will continue to form and may affect China, downstream construction pace will continue to be disrupted, and with hot metal output staying low, steel mills’ rigid consumption demand for iron ore will be hard to expand. On the supply side, there is an expectation of supply growth; overseas mines still have room to boost shipments; port inventories may accumulate further, capping the upside for ore prices. News side , the progress of strike negotiations at BHP's Port Hedland and rumors around long-term contract talks may still cause periodic disruptions to market sentiment, but given their limited impact on actual supply and demand, they are unlikely to drive trend-like price fluctuations. Overall, the market currently lacks clear directional contradictions, and iron ore prices may move sideways in a narrow range next week. Domestic ore: Looking ahead to next week, domestic iron ore concentrate resources are expected to remain tight. Demand side, there are expectations for production resumptions at some steel mills. Combined with the recent rise in imported ore spot prices, the price spread between domestic and imported ore has continued to narrow. Meanwhile, iron ore futures are showing relative strength, which may lend some support to domestic ore prices. However, domestic ore price gains are expected to lag those of imported ore, and the price spread between domestic and imported ore is likely to continue narrowing.

[SMM Magnesium Market Analysis: Consolidating at Lows and Awaiting a Turning Point, Clear Pattern of Both Supply and Demand Growth in August] Currently, China's magnesium prices remain in a low-level, narrow sideways consolidation trend, with market price fluctuations narrowing markedly. With industry participants on summer vacation and the market news environment quieting down, overall trading activity is sluggish. As the market enters the critical August window, magnesium prices are about to see a new turning point in their trend. The supply-demand structure, regional supply differences, and cost support will jointly dictate the subsequent market direction.

SMM August 12 News: Intraday, the SHFE lead 2609 contract rebounded from consolidation around 15,855 yuan/mt, touched a high of 15,925 yuan/mt, and closed at 15,905 yuan/mt, with the closing price flat compared to the previous trading day. Trading volume was 49,552 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,351 lots to 45,172 lots, as funds exited approaching delivery. The full-day candlestick closed as a doji after consecutive gains, with intraday prices shooting up then pulling back. After the rise, funds took profits and exited, the willingness to rush to buy at highs became cautious, and support strength at lows remains to be seen. Spot side, the SMM #1 lead average price rose by 25 yuan/mt. Secondary refined lead was at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to parity compared to the SMM #1 lead average price, downstream users resisted high prices, and actual transactions were thin. Scrap EV batteries followed with a rise of 50-100 yuan/mt. Hydropower batteries showed regional divergence, with quotes in south China rising and those in the north holding steady. Recycled material supply was generally tight, and traders held back from selling, supporting the cost side of secondary lead. In the short term, SHFE lead may continue to consolidate at highs. The upside was constrained by bulls taking profits, downstream caution at highs, and weak spot transactions. The downside was supported by tight scrap battery supply and suppliers holding prices firm. Key focus is on tracking actual improvements in downstream just-in-time procurement.

SMM August 11 News: In July 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina production stood at Rmb 2,718/mt , up Rmb 37/mt month-on-month, while the weighted average cash cost came in at Rmb 2,544/mt . The notable cost rebound was primarily driven by firmer bauxite prices, with rising CIF costs for imported ore and persistently tight domestic supply jointly lifting the feedstock side. Caustic soda costs showed regional divergence—stable in the north and softer in the south—which limited their overall impact. Meanwhile, a modest decline in energy costs during the month partially offset the upward pressure. Bauxite: Imported bauxite prices sustained their upward trend in July, serving as the core driver behind the cost surge. Elevated ocean freight rates, coupled with the approaching rainy season in Guinea that reduced shipments and lifted arrival costs, pushed import quotes markedly higher, passively raising alumina refineries' procurement costs. On the domestic front, lingering after-effects from previous mining accidents kept mine resumption slow, with supply remaining tight. Some alumina producers have been forced to adjust production schedules in response. Domestic ore prices in July surpassed June levels. With buyer-seller negotiations intensifying, alumina plants attempted to cap prices, yet strong supply-side support kept bauxite prices broadly inclined upward. Looking ahead to August, no clear timeline has emerged for domestic supply recovery, while imported ore shipments are expected to shrink further amid the rainy season. Bauxite prices are likely to hold high and steady, with import quotes potentially edging slightly higher. Caustic Soda: The domestic caustic soda market held largely stable in July, with regional divergence. In northern regions (Shandong, Shanxi, etc.), prices fluctuated little and long-term contract prices saw no notable adjustments. In southern regions (Guangxi, etc.), prices were cut by approximately Rmb 100/mt, with most producers keeping prices at relatively low levels to sharpen regional cost competitiveness. Overall, the caustic soda segment had limited impact on alumina production costs. Entering August, Shanxi's caustic soda long-term contract prices are expected to rise by Rmb 50/mt, nudging local costs slightly higher but with limited effect on the broader alumina sector. In Guangxi, prices are set to decline further by Rmb 150/mt, placing local caustic soda costs at the lower end of the industry spectrum and widening the region's cost advantage. Outlook: To sum up, July's alumina production costs rose notably, led by stronger bauxite prices, while a modest dip in energy costs provided some buffer. Looking to August, the domestic ore supply shortage is unlikely to improve, and imported ore shipments are expected to decrease amid the rainy season, with quotes possibly climbing further. Bauxite prices are seen holding firm at high levels. Caustic soda costs are projected to show regional divergence—ticking up mildly in the north while declining further in the south—with overall narrow fluctuations. The national weighted average full cost of alumina production for August is expected to run in the range of Rmb 2,700–2,820/mt , with the weighted average cash cost projected at Rmb 2,530–2,650/mt .