Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

News Release: April 30, 2026 According to SMM statistics, China’s high-carbon ferrochrome output in April 2026 fell by 1.28% month-on-month but rose by 24.63% year-on-year, with notable regional divergence. The majority of the monthly output reduction came from Inner Mongolia in northern China. Affected by substation maintenance, ferrochrome producers in Fengzhen faced production restrictions, with output dipping slightly by 1.82%.

The overseas secondary aluminum market continues to exhibit structural divergence. Elevated scrap prices provide strong cost support, but cautious downstream procurement and weak transaction follow-through are dampening demand-side momentum. As a result, prices remain firm while trading activity stays subdued.【SMM Analysis】

According to SMM data, as of April 24, social inventory of aluminum ingots in China's major consumption regions stood at 1.465 million mt, up 42,000 mt WoW, maintaining an inventory buildup trend for multiple consecutive weeks, with the pace of buildup widening again WoW. Weekly warehouse withdrawals rebounded slightly by 14,200 mt WoW to 115,200 mt, but the improvement in withdrawals fell short of the recent increase in arrivals, indicating clearly insufficient momentum for inventory drawdown..

SMM April 24 News: Lead prices shifted from fluctuating at highs to pulling back sharply this week, with notable futures fluctuations. Scrap battery purchase prices showed regional divergence, with some smelters in east China and central China lowering their quotes at the beginning of the week, while other regions remained largely stable. As lead prices continued to weaken and smelter price adjustments took effect, recyclers rushed to make shipments in a panic. Smelter scrap battery arrivals rebounded significantly WoW this week. At the current stage, smelters have accelerated their restocking pace, with raw material demand gradually materializing. Combined with the continued weak trend in lead prices, expectations for smelters to lower scrap battery purchase prices next week have strengthened.

In March, China's manganese ore market trended upward MoM, driven by the resonance of multiple cost factors outside China. South African ore led the gains, with South African semi-carbonate at Tianjin port up 10.42% MoM and South African high-iron ore up 8.77% MoM, making them the core varieties leading the gains. Other manganese ore varieties also posted varying degrees of increases. The core drivers of this rally came from geopolitical factors and rising costs outside China, compounded by mild port inventory pressure and marginal improvement in demand. The market overall held up well.