While upstream MHP payables stayed high, auxiliary material prices such as sulphur and sulphuric acid continued to climb, and downstream ternary production schedules remained at high levels, the performance of battery-grade nickel sulphate prices was not optimistic. SMM believes this was driven by multiple factors, including weakening cost support, front-loaded downstream stockpiling, increased import supplementation, and higher volumes of nickel sulphate converted from refined nickel.

SMM Nickel, June 12: Macro and Market News: (1) Hours after Trump announced he would bomb Iran again, Trump stated that, given the consultation results with Iran have been approved by Iran’s top leadership, the strike on Iran tonight is canceled. The US-Iran agreement has entered the finalization stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. (2) The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the first hike in nearly three years. ECB President Lagarde stated that today’s decision is not an aggressive move, and the 25-basis-point hike serves as a signal. Spot Market: On June 12, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose by 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,750 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -500 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract rebounded in early trading, closing the morning session at 135,370 yuan/mt, up 0.94%. US CPI exceeded expectations, fueling rate hike expectations, and the world entered a monetary tightening window. On the Indonesia side, the premium accumulated earlier due to ore scarcity is being corrected. China’s refined nickel inventory has reached a historic high, and domestic inventory continues to increase. Visible inventory pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short term.

SMM nickel June 11 news: Macro and market news: (1) The US-Iran conflict reignites; at 17:15 ET on June 10, US Central Command forces carried out "self-defense strikes" against multiple targets in Iran in response to Iran's "unprovoked and sustained" attacks; Iran's Armed Forces Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending international oil prices higher. (2) On Wednesday local time, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that US May CPI inflation was broadly in line with market expectations, but driven by a sharp rise in oil prices due to the Middle East war, the May CPI accelerated on a monthly basis, increasing price pressure on consumers and further reinforcing the case for the Fed to keep interest rates high and remain on hold for longer. Spot market: On June 11, the price of SMM #1 refined nickel fell 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,350 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; premiums for domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract continued to slide sharply during the session, dipping to 134,000 yuan/mt, and closed the morning session at 133,370 yuan/mt, down 1.49%. US CPI came in higher than expected, bolstering rate hike expectations and pushing the world into a monetary tightening window; on the Indonesia side, the premium previously built up due to ore scarcity is being corrected; China's refined nickel inventory has hit a record high and continues to increase, visible inventory pressure has not been substantively eased, and nickel prices remain under pressure in the short term.

SMM June 8 – SMM Nickel: Macro and Market News: (1) US non-farm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, beating expectations, while job gains for March and April were revised up by a combined 93,000. The market is fully pricing in a 25bp rate hike by the US Fed before year-end. (2) The PBOC increased gold reserves for a 19th consecutive month, up 320,000 ounces MoM; China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $3,442.2 billion at the end of May. Spot Market: On June 8, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,000 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands ranged from -600 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract edged higher in early trading and closed the morning session at 139,830 yuan/mt, up 0.79%. US non-farm payrolls data beat expectations, fueling rate hike bets; the US dollar strengthened, weighing on risk assets. Global visible refined nickel inventory stood at around 390,000 mt, and China continued to see inventory buildup. Nickel prices faced resistance. However, the supply of sulfur, an auxiliary material for intermediate products, remained tight, and MHP production cuts have not been resumed. Strong cost support at the bottom remains. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is seen trading in a range of 137,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel prices were generally in the doldrums this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract moved sideways within the 142,000-147,000 yuan/mt range, pulling back after attempting to test resistance at overhead moving averages. The main bearish factors came from continued inventory buildup, which suppressed bullish sentiment. Wait-and-see sentiment was prevalent in the market, with no clear unidirectional driver. LME nickel prices were similarly in the doldrums within the $18,300-19,000/mt range. Spot market side, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 143,510 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums remained at 1,000-1,400 yuan/mt this week. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel premiums stayed in the -500-500 yuan/mt range, with no significant change from last week. Spot market transactions returned to a sluggish state this week, mainly because end-users had actively stockpiled during the previous sharp decline in nickel prices. With futures moving sideways this week, downstream willingness to price against futures was low, with just-in-time procurement being the dominant mode. On the macro front, Fed Chairman transition was completed this week, with new Chairman Waller officially taking office. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts were pushed back to H2 2027, with the possibility of rate hikes not ruled out. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained in the elevated range of approximately 4.35%-4.45% this week, and the US dollar index stayed strong, continuing to weigh on non-ferrous commodity prices. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 113,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 1,100 mt WoW. Currently, bullish and bearish forces are balanced, with continued refined nickel inventory buildup being the core factor suppressing nickel prices. In the short term, absent new catalysts, nickel prices are expected to continue moving sideways with wild swings within the 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt range.

Rumored NPI production cuts at one of Indonesia's largest nickel hubs reveal a deeper structural shift — and a stark gap in per-megawatt-hour returns between aluminum and nickel.