Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

SMM, March 24: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. In early trading, LME lead fluctuated downward, dipping to $1,873.5/mt. Then bulls stepped in, driving prices sharply higher, with wide swings in the $1,888.5-1,909/mt range and a session high of $1,909/mt. Near the close, bullish momentum somewhat faded, and LME lead edged down slightly to finally close at $1,898.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $9.5/mt, or 0.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,495 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,510 yuan/mt. It then saw wide swings in the 16,440-16,500 yuan/mt range. During the session, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, falling to 16,405 yuan/mt. Late in the session, SHFE lead prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, finally closing at 16,435 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Supply side, discounts quoted by primary lead enterprises narrowed slightly WoW, and among cargoes self-picked up from production site, heavily discounted cargoes were also hard to find. The number of enterprises quoting secondary refined lead was relatively small, and there were clear differences between upstream and downstream in price acceptance: downstream had low acceptance of premiums, while upstream held firm offers and showed cautious willingness to sell. Demand side, procurement by downstream enterprises was somewhat scattered. Some mainly made purchases under long-term contracts, while others bought the dip as needed, resulting in differentiated market transactions. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 819 yuan/mt, up 0.92% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 1-2 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotations, while steel mills purchased cautiously. At present, transactions in the spot market remained sluggish. In terms of fundamental data, the SMM survey showed that global iron ore shipments reached 33.63 million mt last week, up 5.2% WoW; meanwhile, total iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports were 27.14 million mt, down 3.5% WoW. Combined with the narrower inventory buildup in port inventory in the previous period and the increase in port pick-up volume, the oversupplied situation on the iron ore supply side improved in the short term. At the same time, demand gradually rebounded as blast furnaces resumed production one after another, and iron ore fundamentals gradually turned bullish. On the news front, as long-term contract negotiations remained deadlocked, the unilateral trend in iron ore had yet to become clear, so most funds chose to stay on the sidelines, though overall bullish sentiment remained relatively strong. Therefore, overall, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate at highs this week.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.