[SMM Analysis：Rare Earth Scrap Recycling Slows as Tax Compliance Tightens, Impacting Production Rates]Recently, multiple rare earth scrap recycling enterprises reported that operating rates may decline in June-July. Large enterprises, with a higher proportion of self-procurement, are seeing more significant production reductions; small and medium-sized enterprises, relying less on self-procurement and more on processing orders, are relatively less affected.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Market Shows Mixed Performance, Tug-of-War Between Upstream and Downstream Continues] Influenced by short covering by bears, futures prices rose, slightly boosting downstream willingness to restock. Procurement volumes for Pr-Nd oxide edged up compared to the previous period, and supplier quotes also rebounded slightly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated upward to 697,000-700,000 yuan/mt.

In May, the rare earth market entered its traditional off-season. Although occasional factors such as major producers' procurement briefly boosted rare earth prices, weak downstream demand kept prices under pressure and pulling back overall throughout May. Pr-Nd oxide and dysprosium oxide fell 11% and 11.79% respectively in May, while terbium oxide also edged down. On the supply side, however, an increasing trend emerged — domestic rare earth oxide production was up MoM across the board in May. Combined with continued inflows of ex-China sources, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides in the first four months surged 103% YoY. This supply-demand mismatch further suppressed rare earth price performance in May. Since early June, Pr-Nd oxide and other rare earth products have seen slight price rebounds, driven by major producers' restocking and futures fluctuations. However, the off-season demand shortfall persists — how will the rare earth market perform going forward? Pr-Nd Oxide Down 11% in May, Dysprosium Oxide Down 11.79%, Terbium Oxide Down 1.63% Light rare earth prices: Taking the historical price trend of Pr-Nd oxide as an example, according to SMM quotes: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on May 29 was 687,500 yuan/mt, compared with its April 30 average price of 772,500 yuan/mt, representing a decline of 85,000 yuan/mt in May, with a monthly drop of 11%. Entering June, Pr-Nd oxide continued to rise, with an average price of 700,500 yuan/mt on June 2. Medium-heavy rare earth prices: Taking the trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM quotes: the average price of dysprosium oxide on May 29 was 1,230 yuan/kg, compared with its April 30 average price of 1,375 yuan/kg, representing a decline of 145 yuan/kg in May, with a monthly drop of 11.79%. Entering June, dysprosium oxide prices edged up slightly, with an average price of 1,240 yuan/kg on June 2. Taking the trend of terbium oxide as an example, according to SMM quotes: the average price of terbium oxide on May 29 was 6,025 yuan/kg, compared with its April 30 average price of 6,125 yuan/kg, representing a decline of 100 yuan/kg in May, with a monthly drop of 1.63%. Entering June, terbium oxide prices rose slightly, with an average price of 6,035 yuan/kg on June 2. Oxide Production Up MoM Across the Board in May Production: Due to increased production from scrap recycling enterprises and production resumptions at some enterprises that had previously undergone equipment maintenance, production of Pr-Nd oxide and other rare earth oxides edged up in May compared with April. Imports of Unlisted Rare Earth Oxides Up 103% YoY, January-April According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of thorium ore and concentrates totaled 21,443 mt from January to April 2026, nearly flat YoY. Imports in April were 4,081 mt, up 22% MoM but up 32% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's imports of unlisted rare earth oxides reached approximately 26,123 mt, a significant YoY increase of 103%. Currently, the operating rate of ex-China rare earth mines remains relatively high, keeping actual supply in the international market at ample levels. Outlook Recently, rare earth prices rose due to futures market price fluctuations and periodic restocking by some large enterprises. However, as downstream orders were unsatisfactory, even though raw material inventory at downstream enterprises remained at relatively low levels, end-user wait-and-see sentiment was strong and enterprises showed little enthusiasm for restocking and stockpiling. It is expected that rare earth prices will be in the doldrums again until downstream orders see a notable increase and market confidence shows clear recovery. Recommended reading:

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Improved Trading Lifts Tungsten Market Volume and Prices, End-Use Demand Follow-Through Remains Key Focus for the Outlook] SMM June 3 report: The tungsten market posted steady gains this week, with related products across the industry chain rising across the board. Tungsten ore and APT markets recorded six consecutive days of increases. New orders from downstream powder enterprises began to gradually improve. Supported by increased trading volume and rising costs, powder enterprises successively raised their quoted prices. Downstream and end-user enterprises shifted from sporadic rigid-demand purchases to bulk purchasing, bullish sentiment grew increasingly strong, and price gains were concentrated in upstream raw materials and the APT segment, while deep-processed products passively rose following costs.

In May, European APT prices held firm above $3,000/mtu amid tight supply, while scrap tungsten dropped sharply. China's tungsten prices rebounded late in the month as sentiment improved, though downstream demand remained soft. A cautious bottoming trend emerged.

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices oscillated slightly lower this week, nickel salt prices saw some pullback, and cobalt salt prices continued to decline. This week, by material type including ternary, LCO, and LFP: LFP hydrometallurgical segment, taking LFP electrode black mass as an example, current LFP electrode black mass prices were 7,550-7,900 yuan/mtu, with prices down significantly WoW from Tuesday's transactions.