Overall, the secondary lead market will remain in a pattern of "weak cost support and strong consumption suppression" in the short term. Smelter production resumptions in June will find it difficult to fully offset previous cuts, with the supply side showing marginal improvement but remaining tight. Lead prices will continue to fluctuate weakly.

[SMM Brass Billet Flash] In May, the overall operating rate of copper billet enterprises stood at 49.27%, down 2.91 percentage points MoM and 0.65 percentage points YoY. By enterprise size, large enterprises, leveraging advantages in raw material channels and capital, maintained relatively stable production, with an operating rate of 56.01%; medium-sized enterprises were under notable pressure, with the rate dropping to 42.02%; small enterprises were hit by triple shocks—raw material shortages, losses, and insufficient orders—with the operating rate at only 24.96%. The operating rate gap among large, medium, and small enterprises continued to widen, and polarization in the industry intensified.

Operating rate data showed a continued pullback, with significant polarization among enterprises. Data indicates that the comprehensive operating rate for copper billet enterprises in May stood at 49.27%, down 2.91 percentage points MoM and down 0.65 percentage points YoY.

[SMM Analysis]Supply Tightening Offsets Off-season Pressure, June ADC12 Price Center Expected to Rise

As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

In May, European APT prices held firm above $3,000/mtu amid tight supply, while scrap tungsten dropped sharply. China's tungsten prices rebounded late in the month as sentiment improved, though downstream demand remained soft. A cautious bottoming trend emerged.