This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China was flat MoM at 64.7%. such as can stock, energy storage, and automobiles. However, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs, exports to the Middle East were impeded, and some end-use consumption recovered less than expected, limiting upside room for the operating rate. The industry exhibited the characteristics of “steady with progress and structural divergence.”

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Continued to Rise This Week, Market Trading Activity Increased] Pr-Nd oxide market prices, supported by raw material costs and expectations of reduced upstream supply, saw a notable increase in downstream purchasing activity. Suppliers raised their offers one after another, and low-priced supplies tightened rapidly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices rose to 773,000-778,000 yuan/mt over the week.

The domestic EV market showed modest signs of recovery. Upcoming auto shows next week may feature new model launches, which could provide some momentum for future demand.

Raw material prices strengthened today, driving finished steel prices to edge up. The most-traded hot-rolled coil contract closed at 3,290 at the end of the session, up 0.34%. Spot market side, quoted prices in multiple regions edged up accordingly. Cold-rolled side, cold-rolled prices mostly held steady today, with no obvious follow-up gains yet. Going forward, short-term bearish factors on the ore side have been fully priced in, and coking coal and coke prices trended stronger, providing relatively strong cost support in the near term. Hot-rolled coil fundamentals side, inventory drawdowns this week were expected to accelerate WoW, with limited accumulation of supply-demand imbalance. The most-traded hot-rolled coil contract was expected to move sideways in the short term.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: At the beginning of the week, futures prices saw wider fluctuations driven by market news. As the news was debunked, futures prices weakened again. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt. Yesterday, the most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,320 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous day but up 70 yuan/mt from Monday. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to edge down slightly this week, but the decline narrowed. On one hand, prices were already approaching the cost lines of most producers; on the other hand, some market "rumors" circulating earlier, combined with unusual movements in futures, gave polysilicon producers more options.