The brass billet industry continued to be in the doldrums under the triple pressures of the traditional off-season, high raw material costs, and weak demand. According to SMM data, the brass billet industry operating rate registered 52.14% this week (5.15-5.21), down 0.2 percentage points WoW, extending the low-level trend since late April.

[Geopolitical Risks Cool at the Margin; LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern in Aluminum Market Remains Unchanged] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China and low inventory continue to provide bottom support. However, elevated inventory levels in China remain the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak trading performance in the spot market further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforming SHFE, fluctuating at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Rebounded from Low-Level Support in Night Session, Spot Cargo Dominated by Rigid Demand with Sluggish Trading] Last Friday, the ADC12 market overall continued a stable-price wait-and-see pattern, with cautious market sentiment. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable from the previous day at 23,700 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis] Raw Material Prices See Slight Correction, Stainless Steel Mill Profits Expand This week, both stainless steel production costs and prices pulled back slightly, and steel mill profits expanded accordingly. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-based profit margin was 2.19%, while the low-level inventory raw material-based profit margin reached 3.67%. Overall industry profitability was moderate, and steel mills therefore maintained high production schedules. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices first declined then rose this week, showing an overall slight pullback. During the week, news emerged that Indonesia planned to unify ferroalloy exports under state-owned enterprise operations. Although stainless steel scrap still held a notable cost-effectiveness advantage and steel mills had a strong desire to bargain down prices, supply uncertainty fueled a strong market sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and prices ultimately stopped falling and stabilized. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell 4.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,140.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, prices pulled back this week. The decline was driven by the combined impact of multiple bearish factors, including weak spot cargo performance in finished products, steel mills pushing for lower raw material prices, and downward adjustments in molten steel quotes. However, the decline was limited for the following reasons: the tight tax invoice situation was expected to ease, trading pain points were being gradually resolved, and steel mill purchase expectations rose accordingly. In addition, steel scrap held a greater cost-effectiveness advantage over NPI, and coupled with steel mills still being profitable and rigid demand remaining robust, prices were effectively supported. The overall pattern showed "weakening spot cargo, cost support, and recovering expectations," and short-term prices were expected to fluctuate in tandem with finished products, with limited downside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 30 in the Shanghai area...

[Weak Order Demand in Some Sectors, Zinc Oxide Operating Rates Declined] The industry's operating rates pulled back WoW this week. Dragged down by weak end-use demand, some enterprises slowed down their production pace, and capacity release contracted somewhat......

SMM News, May 21： Since mid-March, China's tungsten market has ended a year-long sharp rally and entered a high-level correction phase with prices trending steadily lower. Market sentiment has shifted from exuberance to caution, with periodic supply-demand adjustments and fading market mood becoming core drivers of price movements.