July 31, 2026 – The main alumina futures contract closed at 2,621 yuan/ton today, extending its recent weak performance. On the previous trading day (July 30), prices briefly touched an intraday low of 2,617 yuan/ton, plunging 1.37% in a single session and marking a fresh near-term trough. Under the combined bearish pressures of sustained supply expansion, intensifying import competition, and fading speculative sentiment, the alumina market is undergoing a fundamental-driven valuation correction. However, unlike the sharp downturn seen in late 2025, the current significantly higher feedstock costs are building a support floor that may prove difficult to break through decisively. On the supply front, domestic alumina operating capacity remains persistently elevated, with incremental pressure continuing to accumulate. In the Guangxi region, previously idled production lines from maintenance shutdowns are steadily resuming operations, gradually restoring regional supply capacity. Meanwhile, the southern region still faces nearly 3 million tonnes of new capacity slated for release in the coming months, further reinforcing market expectations of a loosening supply landscape. The fading excitement surrounding bauxite supply news has further undermined sentimental support for futures prices. Concerns over Guinean bauxite supply disruptions, which once rattled the market, have gradually receded from the spotlight as time passes. With speculative long positions exiting amid waning media attention, the market has lost its sentiment premium, and prices are reverting to supply-demand fundamentals. Overseas supply continues to weigh heavily on the domestic market. Alumina imports have surged significantly this year, with port inventories climbing to a lofty 940,000 tonnes. The persistent inflow of foreign alumina has not only supplemented domestic availability but also placed sustained downward pressure on spot quotations. Weakening spot prices have formed a negative feedback loop with the futures market, reinforcing the downward price spiral. Nevertheless, despite the layered bearish arguments, current prices are not without defense. Compared with the December 2025 selloff that bottomed at 2,437 yuan/ton, expectations for downside floors differ markedly this time. Back then, Guinean bauxite prices were quoted only around $60/ton, while current prices have climbed to the $70-75/ton range, driving the industry average fully-loaded cost to approximately 2,530 yuan/ton. This materially higher cost base implies that even with deeply bearish fundamentals, a repeat of the free-fall price rout is unlikely to materialize, as cost support effects will strengthen marginally as prices decline. The potential opening of export arbitrage remains one of the few upside catalysts on the horizon. Should overseas alumina prices continue to rise while domestic prices remain subdued, widening the price differential sufficiently to cover export costs, export channels could open periodically, providing a marginal outlet for excess domestic capacity. However, even if such a window materializes, the volumes that can be diverted are unlikely to offset the incremental pressure from new capacity additions in the southern region. Export opportunities are more likely to serve as short-term sentiment-driven rebound catalysts rather than a sufficient condition for a trend reversal. Taken together, alumina prices are expected to trade within a narrow range in the near term, caught between the bearish excess supply narrative and cost support. The core trading range is projected at 2,600-2,650 yuan/ton. Given that market fundamentals are expected to remain loose through August, futures prices could breach the key 2,600 yuan psychological level, though downside potential appears limited by rigid cost support on the mining side.

July 31, 2026 News: As of today, the most-traded alumina futures contract closed at 2,621 yuan/mt, continuing its recent weak trend. The previous day (July 30), prices briefly dipped to 2,617 yuan/mt intraday, with a single-day decline of 1.37%, hitting a new phase low. Under the weight of multiple bearish factors—sustained supply releases, intensifying import pressure, and fading speculative sentiment—the alumina market is undergoing a fundamentally driven valuation correction. However, unlike the deep decline at the end of 2025, the significantly higher ore-side costs are now building a floor that is hard to break through easily. Supply side, China’s operating alumina capacity remains high, and incremental pressure continues to mount. Enterprises in Guangxi that were previously under maintenance are steadily resuming production, with some production lines already restarted, gradually restoring regional supply capability. Meanwhile, south China still has nearly 3 million mt of new capacity planned for release in the coming months, further reinforcing market expectations of a loose supply pattern. The waning heat on the bauxite front further erodes futures sentiment support. Supply disruptions in Guinea that had previously sparked market concerns are gradually fading from view as time passes. After the news heat dissipated, speculative bull funds exited one after another, stripping the futures of sentiment premium as prices returned to supply-demand fundamentals. The impact of overseas resources continues to weigh on the Chinese market. This year, alumina imports have climbed sharply, with port inventories accumulating to a high of 940,000 mt. The continuous inflow of overseas alumina has not only effectively supplemented domestic supply but also exerted persistent downward pressure on spot quotations. The weakening spot price and futures are in a negative feedback loop, reinforcing the downward price spiral. However, despite bears advancing their logic step by step, current prices are not without resistance. Compared to the December 2025 sell-off to 2,437 yuan/mt, the expected bottom in this round of decline is significantly different. At that time, Guinea bauxite was quoted just over $60/mt, whereas ore prices have now jumped to the $70-75/mt range. The industry average full cost has consequently climbed to around 2,530 yuan/mt. This substantial upward shift in the cost center means that even if fundamentals turn fully bearish, a free-fall price collapse is unlikely to recur, and the cost support effect will strengthen marginally as prices decline. The opening of the export window is one of the few potential rebound variables in the current market. If overseas alumina prices continue rising while domestic prices remain low, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widens enough to cover export costs, the export channel may periodically clear, offering a marginal absorption path for domestic surplus capacity. But rationally speaking, even if the export window opens, the total volume it can divert will still be insufficient to cover the incremental pressure from new capacity in south China. The improvement in exports is more of a short-term rebound catalyst at the sentiment repair level, rather than a sufficient condition for a trend reversal. Overall, in the short term, alumina prices will fluctuate narrowly between the surplus logic and cost support. The core price fluctuation range is expected to stay at 2,600-2,650 yuan/mt. Given that fundamentals will remain loose in August, futures prices may fall below the 2,600 yuan/mt mark, but due to the rigid constraint of ore-side costs, the downside room is relatively limited. (The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

July 31, 2026 - This week, ferrochrome market trading was stagnant and prices fell; the chrome ore market was sluggish, with limited inquiries......

SMM, July 31: Views in the secondary refined lead market diverged further. Upstream suppliers held prices firm aggressively, while downstream enterprises called for price cuts and waited to purchase at lower levels. The price spread between secondary refined lead and primary lead narrowed, highlighting the purchasing advantage of primary lead. Price expectations between buyers and sellers differed widely, spot negotiations were at a stalemate, and overall market transactions remained sluggish. This week, mainstream transaction prices for secondary refined lead were at a discount of 75-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, scrap battery prices fell only slightly, widening the loss range for enterprises. As of July 31, 2026, the comprehensive theoretical profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -623 yuan/mt, while that for small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -801 yuan/mt. If lead prices remain in the doldrums next week, the premium quotation range for spot orders of secondary refined lead against the SMM #1 lead average price will expand, and shipment volumes will continue to decline.

In the spot market, this week (July 27–31, 2026), SMM #1 lead prices continued to consolidate on a subdued note. The weekly average price fell 185 yuan/mt WoW, and the overall center moved lower. At month-end, downstream enterprises were less motivated to purchase, and some large enterprises met production needs solely through long-term contracts, with scant replenishment from spot orders. As lead prices dropped, maintenance and production cut plans among primary lead and secondary lead smelters increased, and suppliers' willingness to sell fell in tandem. In the spot market, transactions shifted from quotes at discounts to premiums compared to the start of the week. Specifically, mainstream electrolytic lead quotations were at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory; secondary refined lead quotations were at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with a few enterprises at a premium of 125 yuan/mt. The shift in the spot premium structure was mainly because smelters held back from selling at lower prices after the lead price fell, while suppliers actively shipped inventory to delivery warehouses, alleviating in-factory inventory pressure and tightening available supply in the market.

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Underpin Stainless Steel Scrap Market, End-Use Demand Weakness Restrains Short-Term Upside Room This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China were flat, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; in the Foshan area, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices remained stable in tandem, within a price range of 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost analysis perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap is about 14,607.48 yuan/mt, while that with high-grade NPI is as high as 14,995.22 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a stable cost price spread. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable. During the week, SS futures showed a consolidation pattern of first declining and then rising, and the fluctuations in futures did not provide clear guidance for the spot market. Stainless steel product spot prices consolidated in tandem, with overall prices basically flat compared to last week. At month-end, stainless steel mills initiated a tender for high-grade NPI procurement, driving NPI prices to rebound slightly, but the extent of the increase was relatively limited, and the upward support from the raw material side was weak, keeping the overall stainless steel scrap market stable. Along with the slight recovery in high-grade NPI prices, the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap relative to it has increased, further highlighting its cost substitution competitiveness and forming solid bottom support for scrap prices. Overall, costs and expectations provided support, but end-use fundamentals continued to suppress the market's upward trend. As some stainless steel mills gradually wrap up previous production cuts and maintenance, the market expects stainless steel production to rebound in August, corresponding rigid demand for stainless steel scrap is expected to increase, combined with the current scrap...