LME nickel futures rebounded above US$19,200/ton on une 1, closing at US$19,251/to, a one-month high, on the back of consecutive weekly gains. The rally was driven by declining pure nickel inventories and fresh mining disruptions, including Zimbabwe's restriction on nickel exports, offsetting a stronger US dollar amid rising Middle East tensions. Spot prices rose US$172 to US$19,039/ton, Nickel increase US$2,605 or 15.6% year-to-date.

After pushing to fresh highs in early May, Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices have begun retreating as every pillar that supported the late-April surge — refined nickel, stainless margins, and scrap economics — starts to weaken simultaneously.

The fundamental challenge in the 304 stainless steel industrial chain is Instrument Asymmetry, a scenario where the dominant cost driver, Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), lacks a direct futures contract and forces participants to manage 75% of their risk using standardized proxies like pure nickel. This creates a lethal threat not from price volatility itself, but from the Basis Risk that occurs when physical assets and hedging tools decouple.

The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has stated that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is set to revise the Nickel Benchmark Price (HPM) formula by January or February 2026. A major shift in this revision is the recognition of associated minerals, specifically Cobalt, as distinct commodities subject to royalties. Currently, cobalt content in nickel ore is often untaxed and unpriced, despite its high value in the EV battery supply chain (NMC cathodes). Key Highlights according to APNI: - New Revenue Stream: By charging royalties on cobalt (even at small concentrations of ~0.1%), the state could potentially gain an additional US$600 million in revenue. - Proposed Royalties: The government is considering a single tariff of 1.5% for cobalt and 2% for cobalt associated with nickel matte. - Fairness for Miners: APNI argues that monetizing associated minerals like cobalt and iron (Fe) is a better alternative than increasing progressive royalty rates on nickel itself, ensuring a "fair" business climate. - Structural Changes: The revision may include a shift in transaction units from US$/DMT to US$/pure nickel unit, aligning with international market standards.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is seeking industry input on the feasibility of recovering about 9,700 tons of nickel from radiologically contaminated ingots at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Kentucky. If successfully purified, the recycled nickel could be used in power generation applications for AI, nuclear energy, and grid-scale batteries. DOE issued an Expression of Interest inviting companies with mature technologies capable of selectively extracting pure nickel while leaving behind radioactive impurities. Submissions are due February 19, including details on technical readiness, process safety, production yield, and economic viability.

In recent years, due to multiple factors such as overcapacity in China's high-grade NPI industry and persistent cost inversion, the market landscape has undergone significant adjustments...