For the week (June 19 - June 25), the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises came in at 70.38%, up 1.11 percentage points WoW and up 0.2 percentage points YoY. During the week, declining copper prices slightly stimulated new orders in the market, but end-users generally waited for lower purchasing prices, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the price decline had limited boost on orders. In terms of end-use demand, scattered small orders increased somewhat as prices fell, but the incremental increase in core orders from the two major grids was relatively limited. On the inventory front, enterprises restocked raw materials on dips, but mainly priced first and then picked up goods as needed, without engaging in large-scale stockpiling. Raw material inventories rose by 2.71% WoW. At the initial decline in copper prices, downstream players concentrated on picking up goods, driving destocking of finished product inventories; subsequently, as the market continued to wait and see, finished product inventories fell by 1.86% WoW. Looking ahead to next week, the rebound in copper prices at the end of the week generated some orders, which will be scheduled for production next week. However, as expectations of low prices continue to suppress the market procurement pace, SMM expects that the operating rate of copper wire and cable will increase by another 1.6 percentage points WoW to 71.98% during the week (June 26 - July 2), and by 1.8 percentage points YoY.

In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments thoroughly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implemented the new development philosophy, accelerated the creation of a new development pattern, earnestly carried out more proactive macro policies, and effectively responded to external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, the resilience of foreign trade continued to manifest, new driving forces grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a generally stable development trajectory with improvement and upgrading. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in May, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, 0.4 percentage point faster than the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% from April. For January-May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. Value Added of Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Grew by 4.5% in May 2026 In May, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms (the real growth rates of value added are calculated after deducting price factors), 0.4 percentage point faster than the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% from April. From January to May, it rose by 5.4% YoY. By sector, in May, the value added of the mining industry grew by 2.3% YoY, manufacturing by 4.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water by 7.6%. By ownership, in May, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew by 3.7% YoY; joint-stock enterprises by 5.2%, enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan by 1.9%; and private enterprises by 2.7%. By industry, in May, the value added of 28 out of the 41 major industries registered YoY growth. Among them, coal mining and washing grew by 3.5%, petroleum and natural gas extraction by 1.5%, agricultural and sideline food processing by 1.5%, wine, beverages and refined tea manufacturing fell by 2.7%, the textile industry grew by 2.6%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing by 0.3%, non-metallic mineral products fell by 5.6%, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing grew by 1.6%, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing fell by 4.5%, general equipment manufacturing grew by 6.7%, special equipment manufacturing by 9.1%, automobile manufacturing by 8.3%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transport equipment manufacturing by 7.4%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 4.7%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing by 17.0%, and electricity and heat production and supply by 8.7%. By product, in May, among the 626 products of industrial enterprises above designated size, 300 saw YoY output growth. Specifically, steel output was 123.03 million mt, down 2.8% YoY; cement 149.91 million mt, down 8.1%; ten non-ferrous metals 6.98 million mt, up 2.2%; ethylene 3.38 million mt, up 2.1%; automobiles 2.582 million units, down 3.2%, of which NEVs 1.489 million units, up 17.8%; power generation 784.3 billion kWh, up 4.2%; crude oil processing volume 53.72 million mt, down 9.1%. In May, the product sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.0%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,388.4 billion yuan, a nominal YoY increase of 10.1%. In May, National Economy Operated Generally Stable, with New and Quality Development In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the creation of a new development pattern, effectively implemented more proactive macro policies, and effectively responded to external shocks and challenges. Production supply was stable with an upward trend, employment and prices were generally stable, the resilience of foreign trade continued to be demonstrated, and new growth drivers grew stronger. The national economy continued its development trend of overall stability with new and quality improvements. 1. Industrial Production Accelerated, with Equipment and High-Tech Manufacturing Growing Rapidly In May, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.5% YoY, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month; it grew 0.40% MoM. By the three major categories, the value added of mining grew 2.3% YoY, manufacturing grew 4.4%, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 7.6%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 9.5% YoY, and high-tech manufacturing grew 15.1%, accelerating by 1.2 and 2.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month. By type of ownership, the value added of state-controlled enterprises grew 3.7% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 5.2%, foreign, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan invested enterprises grew 1.9%; private enterprises grew 2.7%. By product, the output of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 54.4%, 40.0%, and 27.9% YoY respectively. In the January-May period, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.4% YoY. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, and the index of enterprise production and operation expectations was 53.9%. In the first four months, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2,435.8 billion yuan, up 18.2% YoY. II. Services Grew Steadily, Modern Services Developed Soundly In May, the national services production index grew 4.4% YoY, 0.1 percentage point faster than the previous month. By sector, the production indices of information transmission, software and IT services, leasing and business services, financial services, and transport, storage and postal services grew 11.3%, 10.9%, 7.0%, and 4.8% YoY, respectively. In January-May, the national services production index rose 4.8% YoY. In January-April, the operating revenue of service enterprises above the designated size increased 6.4% YoY. In May, the business activity index for services stood at 50.3%, and the business activity expectations index for services was 55.4%. Among them, the business activity indices for railway transport, telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, and insurance were in the relatively high prosperity range of above 55.0%. III. Market Sales Maintained Growth, Service Retail Maintained Sound Momentum In January-May, total retail sales of consumer goods and services grew 2.8% YoY, with retail sales of services up 5.4% and retail sales of goods up 1.2%. In January-May, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20,603.1 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY. In January-May, nationwide online retail sales of goods and services reached 8,317.7 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY, of which online retail sales of goods were 5,271.8 billion yuan, up 5.0%, and online retail sales of services were 3,045.9 billion yuan, up 7.6%. In May, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 4,109 billion yuan, down 0.6% YoY and down 0.38% MoM. By location of business establishments, retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas came in at 3,574.1 billion yuan, down 0.9% YoY; retail sales in rural areas were 534.9 billion yuan, up 1.5% YoY. By type of consumption, retail sales of goods stood at 3,648.5 billion yuan, down 0.7% YoY; catering revenue was 460.5 billion yuan, up 0.6% YoY. Sales of daily necessities and some upgraded goods maintained growth. Retail sales of beverages, clothing, footwear, hats and textiles, and cosmetics by enterprises above the designated size increased 6.1%, 3.8%, and 2.5% YoY, respectively. IV. Infrastructure Investment Maintained Growth, Investment in Intellectual Property Products Accelerated In January-May, national fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 17,851.2 billion yuan, down 4.1% YoY; excluding real estate development, fixed-asset investment fell 1.2%. Among this, investment in intellectual property products grew 9.3% YoY, 0.4 percentage points faster than in January-April. By sector, infrastructure investment rose 0.6% YoY, manufacturing investment fell 0.4%, and real estate development investment dropped 16.2%. The floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold nationwide was 313.2 million m², down 10.8% YoY; the sales value of newly built commercial buildings was 2,936.6 billion yuan, down 13.5% YoY. By industry, investment in the primary sector rose 5.9% YoY, investment in the secondary sector edged up 0.1% YoY, and investment in the tertiary sector fell 6.8% YoY. Private investment declined 7.1% YoY; excluding real estate development, private investment dropped 3.5% YoY. Investment in high-tech industries grew 4.5% YoY, with investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing, aviation and spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, and information services up 18.3%, 16.7%, and 13.8%, respectively. In May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell 1.91% MoM. V. Rapid Growth in Goods Imports and Exports with Continued Optimization of Trade Structure In May, total goods imports and exports reached 4,451.6 billion yuan, up 16.9% YoY, accelerating 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Exports stood at 2,587.8 billion yuan, up 13.8% YoY, while imports totaled 1,863.8 billion yuan, up 21.5% YoY. From January to May, total goods imports and exports amounted to 20,682.7 billion yuan, up 15.3% YoY. Exports came to 11,913.7 billion yuan, up 11.8% YoY, and imports hit 8,769.1 billion yuan, up 20.5% YoY. From January to May, imports and exports under Ordinary Trade rose 8.3% YoY. Imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries grew 13.6% YoY. Imports and exports by private enterprises increased 15.5% YoY. Exports of mechanical and electrical products expanded 18.4% YoY. VI. Generally Stable Employment with a Decline in the Surveyed Urban Unemployment Rate From January to May, the surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%. In May, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM. The surveyed unemployment rate for the local household labor force was 5.2%, and that for the non-local household labor force was 4.9%, with the rate for the non-local agricultural household labor force at 4.9%. The surveyed urban unemployment rate across 31 major cities was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide was 48.2 hours. VII. Mild Rise in Consumer Prices and Widening YoY Increase in Producer Prices In May, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY, the same growth as the previous month, and fell 0.1% MoM. By category, prices for food, tobacco, alcohol, and dining out fell 0.9% YoY, clothing prices rose 1.4% YoY, housing prices edged down 0.2% YoY, prices for household articles and services increased 1.8% YoY, transportation and communication prices climbed 5.4% YoY, education, culture, and entertainment prices went up 1.3% YoY, healthcare prices grew 2.1% YoY, and prices for other goods and services surged 9.9% YoY. Among food, tobacco, alcohol, and dining-out prices, pork prices fell 16.1%, fresh fruit prices dropped 2.2%, grain prices edged down 0.3%, while fresh vegetable prices rose 1.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, posted a 1.1% YoY increase. For January–May, national consumer prices rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national industrial producer EXW prices rose 3.9% YoY, with the growth rate widening by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and rose 0.5% MoM. National industrial producer purchasing prices rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. For January–May, national industrial producer EXW prices and purchasing prices rose 1.0% and 1.6% YoY, respectively. Overall, the national economy operated stably in May, with development resilience continuing to show. However, it should also be noted that the external environment has become more complex and volatile, the contradiction of strong domestic supply and weak demand remains pronounced, some enterprises face considerable operating pressure, and the foundation for sustained economic improvement still needs consolidation. In the next stage, efforts should focus on adhering to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as guidance, maintaining the principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, improving quality and efficiency, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continuously expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, enhancing increments and revitalizing existing assets, developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions, deepening the building of a unified national market, working to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promoting effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy. Recommended reading:

Philippine Market: Port inventories continued to accumulate, high freight costs coupled with smelters pushing for lower prices, ore prices faced increasing downside risks This week, CIF China quotes for Philippine nickel ore were generally flat WoW, with no significant loosening or increases across various grades. Specific quotes were: CIF China: Ni 1.3% at $49–52/wmt, 1.4% at $57–60/wmt, 1.5% at $65–67/wmt; CIF Indonesia: 1.3% at approximately $48–50/wmt, 1.4% at approximately $56–58/wmt. Supply and Weather As of June 12, Philippine nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports totaled approximately 5.77 million wmt, equivalent to around 45,300 mt in nickel metal content, up WoW as supply remained ample. Weather conditions at mining areas were relatively manageable, with no major typhoons or heavy rainfall disrupting supply chains recently. However, spot freight rates stayed high, providing minimal support for miners' FOB prices, intensifying cost pressure on miners' shipments. Some mines opted to hold off on shipments, awaiting next week's new round of bidding results before making decisions. Demand and Inventory Demand side, smelters' desire to bargain down prices remained strong, continuing to pressure miners with ample inventories, while the buyer-dominant landscape persisted. Smelters in both China and Indonesia held inventories that fluctuated at highs, with weak short-term restocking willingness and sluggish trading in the market. Considering the continued accumulation of port inventories, high freight costs squeezing miner margins, coordinated price pushing by smelters, and rising wait-and-see sentiment among miners, ore prices could edge down further in the coming weeks. Indonesian Market: Smelters' High Inventories Continued to Weigh on Prices, Premiums Showed a Narrowing Trend The HMA was unchanged at $18,799.29/mt. Theoretical HPM prices were: Ni 1.6% at approximately $70.75/wmt, 1.2% at approximately $49.84/wmt. The delivery-to-factory price for 1.6% ore was $73.8–78.8/wmt, with premiums at +3 to +8 dollars, flat WoW and significantly narrower than earlier highs. Looking ahead, with ore supply continuing to be ample and smelters' willingness to bargain down prices increasing, premiums are expected to have room to decline further. Indonesia's local ore supply was relatively abundant, with some mines taking advantage of weather windows to maximize production. According to BMKG: Sulawesi (Morowali Utara) experienced relatively dry weather with calm seas and smooth shipping; East Halmahera saw persistent rainfall with wave heights of 1.4–2.0 m; Obi had light rain with wave heights of 1.3–1.6 m, with shipment efficiency affected in both areas. This week, the saprolite ore market saw ample cargo availability and relatively active trading volumes. However, with inventories at many smelters staying at sufficient levels, the desire to push for lower prices strengthened noticeably. In some industrial parks, unloading vehicle queues appeared this week, directly reflecting the market reality of loose ore supply and persistently high delivery-to-factory volumes. Traded grades were concentrated at 1.45–1.50% Ni, while high-grade ore (≥1.6%) remained scarce. In addition, spot limonite ore was priced at approximately $26–34/wmt, with the price range widening. The market exhibited some divergence, with select transactions at lower prices and a few at higher levels, as the overall center shifted slightly lower WoW, mainly dragged down by high freight costs. The discount to the theoretical HPM price remained deep and detached. Sulphuric acid supply stayed relatively tight, HPAL operating rates were low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore remained under pressure. Policy Developments Newly approved RKAB for nickel ore were relatively rare this week, with the market widely expecting more approvals to be released in July. Meanwhile, Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the government would implement an "orderly and flexible" policy for 2026 mineral and coal RKAB, where production quota adjustments would be linked to global commodity price trends and domestic industrial demand—moderately expanding production when prices rise and tightening promptly when prices are under pressure to maintain supply-demand balance. This statement reserved policy space for within-year quota revisions, warranting ongoing market attention to the release periods of subsequent official documents. The DSI takeover mechanism for ferroalloy exports entered a transition period on June 1, with NPI (HS 7202.60.00) highly likely to be included; Harita’s PT Trimegah had already completed the first DSI single-window export declaration, with smooth operations. The government was simultaneously pushing forward a strict crackdown on under-invoiced contracts, with relevant departments set to consult with industry associations to close loopholes.

SMM, June 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market weakened across the board. SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE tin dropped 1.89%, SHFE nickel lost 2.29%, SHFE copper edged down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.85%, and SHFE zinc slipped 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 3.21%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 0.53%, the most-traded silicon metal contract increased 2%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.59%, rebar added 0.13%, HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract declined 1.35%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up 0.06%, LME aluminum fell 1.03%, LME lead dropped 0.38%, LME zinc declined 0.24%, LME tin lost 0.92%, and LME nickel slipped 0.36%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.99%, touching an intraday low of $4,195.5/oz, while COMEX silver dropped 1.82%. In domestic precious metals, the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.79%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 6.79%. Ilya Spivak, global macro head at Tastylive, noted that the real drivers lie in shifting expectations around US Fed policy, rising yields, and a stronger US dollar. "I think these factors are all weighing on gold," he said. Spivak added that if gold breaks below the $4,100 mark, support levels would fundamentally change, and by the end of the year, we may be looking at the next threshold of $3,500. (Jin10 Data APP) Meanwhile, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 2.77%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container freight futures contract climbed 3.2% to 3,993 points. As of 11:39 on June 10, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated in the 24,575-24,745 yuan/mt range, Shuangyan was mainly transacted at 24,675-24,835 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream deals were at 24,505-24,675 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market quoted premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet... Macro Front China side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): May CPI Rose 1.2% YoY, PPI Rose 3.9% YoY, with PPI Continuing to Increase] NBS data showed that in May 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.3% YoY, while rural CPI rose 1.1% YoY; food prices fell 1.7% YoY, while non-food prices rose 1.9% YoY; consumer goods prices rose 1.6% YoY, while services prices rose 0.8% YoY. In the January–May average, national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national CPI edged down 0.1% MoM. In May 2026, China’s national producer price index (PPI) rose 3.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The industrial producer purchasing price index rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. In the January–May average, PPI rose 1.0% YoY, while the purchasing price index rose 1.6% YoY. Within the purchasing price index in May, price increases were led by non-ferrous metals and wires (22.0%), chemical raw materials (11.8%), fuels and power (10.0%), textile raw materials (2.5%), and ferrous metals (0.3%); meanwhile, declines were seen in building materials and non-metallic products (-5.5%) and agricultural and sideline products (-1.6%). Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for May 2026. The PBOC conducted a 159-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index slipped 0.01% to 99.94. Renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove up both the dollar and oil prices, exacerbating market concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. (Jinshi Data APP) At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is also the most closely watched heavyweight inflation data ahead of the new Fed Chair Warsh's policy rate meeting next week. According to forecasts, four institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, project the overall CPI YoY for May to be in the 4.17%–4.3% range, all above April’s 3.81% . However, their MoM core CPI forecasts are generally below market consensus. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July stands at 85.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 12.6%, and that of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.6%. CSC Financial pointed out that, in the short term, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains low, and the market's concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, built on assumptions of sticky US inflation and a persistently hot labor market. CME FedWatch data shows that markets outside China expect the most likely Fed rate hike to begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustment represent a front-running reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China’s bond market, the increase in expectations of Fed tightening is not a negative factor. China’s bond market is relatively independent and has a relatively small correlation with US Treasuries. Moreover, given the ample liquidity in China, the expected tightening of liquidity outside China and the adjustment in equity markets may not rule out the possibility of driving capital into the bond market, supporting current levels of long-dated bonds. Going forward, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of incremental domestic information. Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: US May unadjusted CPI YoY, US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision due June 10, and China May M2 money supply YoY (pending). In addition, the following should be watched: the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision announcement; and a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.98%. Renewed supply concerns stemming from the re-erupting conflict in the Middle East, together with declining US crude oil inventories, have provided support to oil prices. Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ended June 5: -9.119 million barrels (expected -3.421 million, prior -6.757 million). US API gasoline inventories for the week ended June 5: -1.191 million barrels (expected -614,000, prior 3.454 million). (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday local time that, due to the loss of over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East caused by the conflict, major consuming countries are drawing down inventories at an unprecedented pace to fill the supply gap, and OECD oil inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. EIA stated that, under its current assumption that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD oil inventories will fall to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, briefly surged to $1,992/mt (the highest price) in Asian trading before pulling back under pressure; during European trading, although there was a slight recovery, resistance was notable and it fluctuated downward again, touching a low of $1,987.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,988/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.03%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,300 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward under pressure, touching a low of 16,155 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly, moving sideways in the 16,170-16,205 yuan/mt range, and ultimately closing at 16,180 yuan/mt, recording a four-day losing streak, down 160 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.98%. On the macro front: Israel and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since April, and after Trump intervened, both countries announced a temporary halt to attacks. U.S. media: Trump warned Netanyahu that if he wages war with Iran again, he may find himself fighting alone. Iran's UN representative: hopes that the US-Iran negotiations will reach an agreement by the end of June. South Korean regulatory authorities will review speculative won trading. OpenAI disclosed it has secretly filed for an IPO. The CPC Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held an enlarged meeting: to steadily promote the resolution of risks at local small and medium-sized financial institutions and deeply rectify disorderly competition in the financial sector. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, suppliers sold as they saw fit, premiums and discounts quoted yesterday were stable compared to last Friday, and primary lead smelter self-picked-up cargoes were ample, with mainstream production area quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead market, smelters gradually lowered scrap battery purchase prices to ease losses, some smelters resumed shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, at the same level as primary lead prices. However, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement and mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in sluggish spot order transactions. Inventory: As of June 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,100 mt to 309,250 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, operating rates at secondary lead smelters have rebounded, combined with primary lead enterprises resuming production after maintenance, leading to a continued increase in lead ingot supply. June production is expected to shift from decline to growth. However, the downstream lead-acid battery market is in its traditional off-season, with enterprises mainly making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining sluggish. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, invisible inventory is turning into visible inventory, further intensifying inventory buildup pressure. Cost side, amid weakening lead prices, secondary lead enterprises proactively lowered scrap battery purchasing prices, weakening support; however, scrap battery raw materials still had bottom support, and coupled with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices among smelters amid widening losses in secondary lead, this still provided some floor to lead prices, limiting the room for deep price declines.

Philippine ore quotes flat MoM, market awaits new pricing window This week, nickel ore prices in the Philippine market were basically stable compared to last week. CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% at $49-52/wmt, 1.4% at $57-60, and 1.5% at $65-67; quotes for shipment to Indonesia were 1.3% at around $48-50 and 1.4% at around $56-58. No obvious loosening or upward adjustment was seen across grades for either CIF China or CIF Indonesia quotes, with miners tending towards conservative quotation intentions. Supply side, Philippine shipments were relatively ample overall this week, with no noticeable tightening in market cargo supply. Mines maintained normal loading pace, and no major weather disruptions interfered with the supply chain. Market participants generally expect new rounds of price announcements in the coming weeks, and the near-term ore price direction awaits clearer signals from these pricing markers before further assessment. Demand side, large smelters in China and Indonesia jointly pushed for lower prices, leveraging ample inventory. Shipping volumes to Indonesia were somewhat lower than last month, with buyers clearly dominating price negotiations. As of June 5, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports reached 5.36 million mt, up 110,000 mt MoM, equivalent to approximately 42,100 mt Ni in metal content; Indonesian smelter inventory continued to accumulate simultaneously. Rising inventory levels at both locations indicate that the demand side is unlikely to provide effective support in the near term. Divergence between sellers and buyers was significant, and the price center edged lower amid a tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, with overall market sentiment subdued. Continued pushback on raw material prices by smelters caused the price center for nickel ore CIF to shift further downwards, providing extremely weak support for Philippine ore FOB prices. Indonesian nickel ore market: Indonesian ore prices under downward pressure, persistently low grades constrain supply quality This week, Indonesian nickel ore market prices came under downward pressure overall, with the official reference price recording a slight correction, as cost tug-of-war across the industry chain persisted. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the HMA for the first half of June 2026: nickel price at $18,799.29/mt (down $50 from $18,849.29/mt in the second half of May 2026); cobalt price at $55,851.43/mt; iron ore price at $1.58/mt; chrome ore price at $6.37/mt. Based on SMM's internal calculation model, simulations for saprolite ore (Fe 20%, Cr 1%, Co 0.05%) show theoretical HPM prices for all grades slightly lower from the previous period. The theoretical HPM price for Ni 1.6% grade was approximately $70.75/wmt (down $0.08 MoM), and for Ni 1.2% grade was approximately $49.84/wmt (down $0.10 MoM). In terms of transaction prices, this week, delivery-to-factory prices for 1.6% grade saprolite ore were quoted at $73.8–78.8/wmt, down MoM, representing a premium range of +$3 to +$8/mt over the theoretical HPM price of $70.75/wmt. The premium narrowed significantly from earlier highs, reflecting the combined impact of sustained smelter pushback on prices and ample supply, and significantly squeezing miners' profit margins. This week, actual spot prices for 1.2% grade limonite ore were around $28–33/wmt, representing a discount of approximately $17–22 against the theoretical HPM calculated price of $49.84/wmt, with the discount depth remaining severe. Despite the slight adjustment in the HMA reference price, spot limonite ore prices failed to follow at all, heavily constrained by low downstream HPAL capacity utilization rates and tight sulphuric acid supply, with a serious disconnect between the two. Supply side, domestic ore supply in Indonesia improved this week, with overall supply relatively loose. However, ore grades remained persistently low, with mainstream circulated grades in the market around 1.45%–1.50% Ni range. High-grade saprolite ore (≥1.6%) remained a scarce resource, and some smelters faced difficulties supplementing high-grade ore sources, compelling increased blending operations with lower grades. According to the latest BMKG maritime meteorological data, weather conditions in the Morowali waters were good this week, with wave heights of 0.4–0.5 meters (low waves) and stable winds, leaving vessel operations unaffected; weather turned somewhat adverse in the East Halmahera waters, experiencing light rain, northeast winds at 9–10 knots, and wave heights reaching 1.4–2.0 meters (moderate waves), with BMKG issuing a wave alert, requiring heightened attention to shipping operations; the Obi waters also experienced light rain, southeast winds at 13–14 knots, and wave heights of 1.3–1.6 meters (moderate waves), with BMKG also issuing a wave height alert, somewhat impacting ore shipment efficiency. Demand side, overall raw ore inventory at smelters remained at relatively sufficient levels. SMM data shows that in May, the nickel ore inventory coverage index for pyrometallurgy smelters was about 2 months, and the cycle inventory index for HPAL hydrometallurgy plants was about 1.7 months, leaving little appetite for near-term restocking and a clear inclination to push for lower ore prices. In the limonite ore market, the tight supply of sulphuric acid had yet to fundamentally improve, with pressure on MHP production persisting. Operating rates at some hydrometallurgy producers remained low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore came under pressure. Policy level, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs confirmed at a meeting yesterday that the DSI ferroalloy export takeover mechanism would formally enter a transition period starting June 1, 2026 (through August), with full implementation required by January 1, 2027, at the latest. The minister confirmed at the meeting the HS codes for ferroalloys included in the takeover scope. Given that nearly all Indonesian NPI exports are declared under HS code 7202.60.00, and this code has been confirmed as included within the DSI takeover scope, NPI is highly likely to be covered by the DSI export takeover. The complete official regulatory text has yet to be officially released, and final confirmation remains subject to official announcement. However, Chinese-invested smelters should begin assessing the potential impact of the transition period on export logistics and compliance costs. In addition, while reiterating its commitment to honoring existing valid long-term contract commercial credit, the government will strictly investigate contracts suspected of "low-price customs declarations." Relevant authorities will soon commence consultations with major industry associations to close loopholes causing tax revenue losses from low pricing. According to markets outside China, Harita Nickel's PT Trimegah Bangun Persada has taken the lead in submitting a ferronickel export report through the DSI "single window" system. CEO Roy Arman Arfandy stated that the export process has been operating normally since June 2, progressing relatively smoothly overall.