Overall, the main exporters' order-taking situation was moderate in the earlier period. The export reduction from Vietnam and some countries during Ramadan was offset by Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia. Therefore, China's steel exports in March may not see a significant decrease MoM; however, considering that most traders have recently reported poor performance of major steel export products and order-taking, this data is expected to become evident in late April. Thus, SMM predicts that steel exports in April will decline 10%-15% MoM...

[SMM Analysis] On March 3, 2025, the European Commission announced a delay in implementing automotive carbon emission regulations until 2027, sparking global attention. This decision reflects Europe’s multifaceted challenges in its electrification transition: declining profitability among domestic automakers, mounting supply chain restructuring pressures, and the rapid expansion of Chinese NEV brands in the region. According to the European Environment Agency, the EU’s EV adoption rate reached only 15.8% in 2024, 4.2 percentage points below its original target. Meanwhile, Chinese brands now command 18% of Europe’s NEV market—a twelvefold increase since 2020.

Currently, the price difference between Southeast Asia's import price and ex-factory price is around $10/mt. The provisional anti-dumping duty of 19.38%-27.83% will increase Vietnam's import costs by $94-130/mt (based on current import prices), rendering imports almost uncompetitive. Previously, it was expected that the tariff would take effect in March, but the earlier-than-expected implementation may result in risks of canceled orders or additional costs for some shipments that fail to depart in time, which could, in turn, exert corresponding pressure on domestic steel mills to redirect pig iron or shift to domestic trade sales. According to the specifications and trade modes involved in the anti-dumping case, approximately 90% of HRC exports fall within the scope of Vietnam's anti-dumping investigation, with an annual total volume of about 7.32 million mt/year, equivalent to 600,000 mt/month. However, according to SMM, the Vietnamese authorities originally announced that the provisional tariff would be introduced in November 2024. At that time, some domestic customers had already adjusted their sales channels to mitigate risks. After the export surge in September and October, the total steel exports to Vietnam dropped to over 400,000 mt in November and December. The export surge remained evident in January, with HRC exports to Vietnam expected to rebound to 500,000 mt MoM in January. Due to the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, February exports may pull back to 300,000-350,000 mt, while March HRC exports to Vietnam are expected to fall below 300,000 mt.

[SMM Hot Topic] India Plans to Impose a 15%-25% Tariff on Steel Products Imported from China—What Is the Reason Behind It? In summary, according to data from China Customs, the volume of steel exported from China to India in 2024 accounted for 2.69% of China's total steel export volume. If India imposes additional tariffs, it will somewhat suppress China's export volume to India, but the overall impact will be limited. Since South Korea and Japan have signed free trade agreements with India, allowing them to enter the Indian market duty-free, based on India's tariff hike on China and the US's tariff hike on all countries, South Korea and Japan may increase their steel export volume to India...

This week, the ferrous metals series trended downward weakly. Recently, domestic and international information has been released in succession. The US unadjusted CPI year-on-year for January stood at 3%, higher than the previous value and expectations. Traders have postponed the timing of the next US Fed interest rate cut from September to December...

According to the latest reports, India's Minister of Steel, H.D. Kumaraswamy, stated that due to the "severe challenge" posed by Chinese imported steel to domestic producers in India, the country may impose a provisional tax of 15% to 25% on steel from China as early as within six months.