Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyser market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyser market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. There was no offline delivery information this week. Project-related updates: PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd.: It issued a processing tender for its brine hydrogen production electrolyser. Funding for the tender project was self-raised by the enterprise, with a contribution ratio of 100%. It is understood that procurement of necessary raw materials and components included, but was not limited to, integrated electrolyser materials such as electrodes, end plates, bipolar plates, separators, and gaskets. Suppliers were also required to provide essential auxiliary accessories for the electrolyser, including cooling towers, chillers, and potassium hydroxide, in accordance with the purchaser’s requirements. Guangxi University of Science and Technology: It procured a hydrogen-fuel low-speed hybrid autonomous vehicle experimental system from Hefei Zhongke Shengu Technology Development Co., Ltd., with a transaction price of 844,800 yuan. Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences: It issued a procurement notice for a 500 W hydrogen fuel cell testing platform. It is understood that the testing platform will be used for performance, efficiency, and durability testing of 500 W-class hydrogen fuel cell stacks and single cells. CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.: The Jilin Hydrogen Future Energy Factory Integrated Energy Project issued a procurement notice for an energy-saving assessment report. It is understood that the project had successively completed procurement for reports including water resources assessment, feasibility study, land-use pre-examination, hydrogen pipeline design, and power market analysis. Shaanxi Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.: It released a public notice on the social stability risk assessment survey for Phase I of the 30 GW new energy green hydrogen production and hydrogen pipeline project (Inner Mongolia section). According to the notice, the project is located in Tuke Town, Uxin Banner, Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It is understood that the hydrogen pipeline route is 19.6 km long, with a design pressure of 6.3 MPa, and uses L290QH steel pipe material (seamless steel pipe). Total project investment is about 449.38 million yuan. Allocated by route length (with the Uxin Banner section accounting for 53.4%), the estimated investment within the area is about 239.97 million yuan. The project construction period is 2026–2028. PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. : Its hydrogen energy R&D department plans to custom-process one set of MW-class brine hydrogen production electrolyser equipment, with hydrogen production capacity of no less than 200 Nm³/h. Tender scope: procurement of one set of brine hydrogen production electrolyser equipment. Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited: It officially signed the Phase I project of the Inner Mongolia Baofeng coal-based new materials wind and solar power hydrogen production project. According to the agreement, Shanghai Electric will provide eight 1,250 Nm³/h alkaline electrolysers, the world’s largest single-set 5,000 Nm³/h separation and purification system, and an industry-first outdoor three-dimensional layout solution. Suqian Green Energy Hydrogen Innovation Technology Co., Ltd.: During the 5th China International Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Exhibition, Suqian Green Energy Hydrogen Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. and China Power Engineering Consulting Group Northwest Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony at the China National Convention Center in Beijing for a domestic MW-class AEM electrolyser testing project. Shenneng Northern Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.: It issued procurement for the preparation of a feasibility study report for the Etuoke Banner wind power hydrogen production integration green application project (Phase II), covering hydrogen production by water electrolysis and SAF synthesis. It is understood that the Etuoke Banner 505 MW wind and solar power hydrogen production integration green ammonia synthesis project (Phase I) was successfully selected in October 2025 as one of the first batch of hydrogen energy pilot projects in China’s energy sector, and is planned to be fully completed and put into operation in August 2026. Policy Review​ 1. Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments on issuing the Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of Energy-Saving Equipment (2026–2028). The document stated that by 2028, mass-produced water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment should achieve DC power consumption of less than 4.2 kWh/Nm³ under rated operating conditions. 2. Notice of the General Office of the National Energy Administration on issuing the Guidelines for the Establishment of 2026 Energy Industry Standard Plans. The key areas for the 2026 energy industry standard plan include eight items. In the hydrogen energy field, key directions include fundamentals and general applications, hydrogen production and conversion, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen refuelling, hydrogen power and power generation, and hydrogen equipment. 3. Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 18 of 2026: announcement of the launch of a trade barrier investigation into US practices and measures that hinder trade in green products. Preliminary evidence and information obtained by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the US had implemented multiple practices and measures in trade-related areas that hinder trade in green products, including but not limited to restricting exports of green products to the US, slowing new energy deployment, and restricting technology cooperation related to green products. Enterprise Updates​​ Xieqing (Shanghai) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Its hydrogen-powered drone H100 was officially put into use for material transport by China Post in Suibin County/Bayan County, Heilongjiang, entering the stage of regularised operations. Henan Junheng Industrial Group Biotechnology Co., Ltd. : Five reactors for its 1 million mt/year waste oil and fat processing sustainable aviation fuel project were successfully hoisted into place. Hubei Yingteli Electric Co., Ltd.: The two sets of thousand-cubic-metre-class IGBT hydrogen production power supplies it provided were successfully applied in South Korea’s first off-grid green hydrogen production project. Ordos Hanxia New Energy Co., Ltd. : At the hydrogen production plant of the Narisong PV hydrogen production industry demonstration project in Jungar Banner, Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the first truckload of 99.999% national-standard high-purity green hydrogen in 2026 was successfully dispatched after filling operations were completed. Hydshine Energy (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.: It announced the completion of its Pre-B round of financing. This round was exclusively strategically invested by the Shenzhen Energy Storage Fund. It is understood that the funds will be mainly used for global market expansion, next-generation product R&D, and industrialisation capabilities. Shanghai Hydrogen Energy Group Co., Ltd.: It was successfully recognised as a “Shanghai Specialised, Sophisticated, Distinctive and Innovative SME” in the first batch list of Shanghai specialised and sophisticated small and medium-sized enterprises. Tianneng Battery Group Co., Ltd. : During the Tianneng 2026 Spring New Product Launch held in Tianjin, Tianneng signed strategic cooperation agreements with multiple partners on hydrogen fuel cells and solid-state batteries. In hydrogen energy, Tianneng joined hands with Guangdong Vision Holding Group and Tianjin Weida Space Technology to deepen the deployment of hydrogen-powered shared bicycle scenarios and promote the rollout of this model in more cities. ​​Patent Applications​​ 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences​​ (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. ​​2. Johnson Matthey​​ (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications​​ 1. Professor Yu Ying’s team at Central China Normal University developed a three-dimensional graded nanostructured catalytic electrode, a core part for seawater hydrogen production. 2. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron-pump catalyst with an asymmetric photoresponse structure to maintain asymmetry in electron distribution. 3.​​Research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolysers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 5. Teams from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of AEM water electrolysis hydrogen production and supporting the scale-up of low-cost green hydrogen.

Customs data showed that China’s aluminum wire and cable exports totaled 53,280 mt in January-February 2026, up 37% YoY from January-February last year.

Recently, at the alumina project site of the Guinea Aluminum Development Project (Phase II), as the inlet valve of the CMST oil depot was successfully opened following BV inspection, three brand-new 60,000-liter diesel storage tanks were officially put into use, marking a key breakthrough in the project’s capacity for independent energy security. Since construction of the alumina project under the Guinea Aluminum Development Project (Phase II) began in October 2025, unstable diesel supply had become a critical bottleneck constraining faster progress in project construction. In the face of severe challenges, the Guinea company regarded diesel as a “survival resource,” elevated supply security to a strategic priority, acted swiftly and proactively。

After the Chinese New Year, the PV power generation project in the relocation resettlement area of Gaoluo Subdistrict, Ceheng County, Guizhou Province, quickly resumed work and production, carrying out final engineering work such as ground clearing and cable trench restoration, as well as grid connection commissioning. The project has a total installed capacity of 3,200 kW, with annual power generation expected to exceed 1.13 million kWh and annual output value of about 390,000 yuan. It will also provide 450 parking spaces in carports, and part of the revenue will be used for community management and to strengthen the collective village economy.

Capacity-wise, according to incomplete statistics, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market remains at 43.77GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market stays at 2.7GW, with no new capacity added. The "water electrolysis hydrogen production system - oxygen purification unit" produced by Skyreach Hydrogen Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. has been successfully delivered to a leading large-scale polysilicon producer in China. Updates on electrolyzer projects: Jinfeng Green Energy Chemical (Xing'an League) Co., Ltd.: The Yujinfeng Xing'an League green hydrogen to green methanol (Phase III) project has been filed, with the construction site located in Xing'an League Economic and Technological Development Zone, Ulanhot City, Xing'an League. Total investment: 2.3 billion yuan, including 460 million yuan of own funds and 1.84 billion yuan of bank loans applied for. The planned construction period is from May 2026 to May 2028. The project will mainly construct biomass gasification, methanol synthesis distillation, and other main production facilities along with supporting public auxiliary works, producing 725,000 tons of green methanol annually. Guohua Investment Guohua (Cangzhou) Integrated Energy Co., Ltd.: The Alashan Large Wind and Solar Base Electrolysis Water Hydrogen Production and Ammonia Synthesis System Integration and Engineering Demonstration Project Cangzhou Green Ammonia Phase II Electrolysis Water Hydrogen Production System Preliminary Design Service has issued a public tender. According to the announcement, the first phase of the Cangzhou green hydrogen and green ammonia electrolysis water hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis facility has already been constructed within the reserved area of the green ammonia plant. Shaanxi Hydrogen Luyuan Technology Co., Ltd.: The shortlisted candidates for the hydrogen power supply equipment and its auxiliary devices procurement (0021GBT rectifier power supply) of the Yulin Zero-Carbon Industrial Park Hydrogen (Hydrogen Production) Demonstration Project have been announced. According to the announcement, the first candidate is Beijing Leidong Zhi Chuang Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 1.3668 million yuan; the second candidate is Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 1.4661 million yuan; the third candidate is Shenzhen Hopewind Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 1.48 million yuan. North Engineering Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd. : A quotation request has been issued for the process equipment of the hydrogen production unit of the electrolysis water hydrogen production device (including electrolyzers, gas-liquid separation skids, purification skids, centrifugal pumps, canned motor pumps, alkali mixing tanks, demineralized water tanks, and auxiliary facilities). Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.: The annual 100kt green methanol demonstration project has passed the filing. It is understood that the total investment of the project is 100.96 million yuan, and the construction scale and content do not involve additional land use, partially relying on Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Co., Ltd. Upon project completion, the facility is expected to achieve an annual production of 100kt of green methanol. Construction is scheduled to commence in April 2026 and conclude in April 2027. Jinda Hongjing (Shache) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The company issued postponement announcements for the full-process tracking audit service and project supervision service of the Jinda Hongjing Shache County Integrated PV Hydrogen Production Project. The revised bid opening date for both is March 10, 2026. The project involves the construction of a new 250kt/year green methanol production facility, including water electrolysis for hydrogen production, biomass gasification units, and methanol synthesis units, along with storage systems and supporting utilities and auxiliary facilities. The annual output is set at 250kt of green methanol, with by-products including 30kt/year of steam and 179.2 million standard cubic meters/year of oxygen. Ningxia Wangwa Coal Industry Co., Ltd.: The winning bid result was announced for the hydrogen production equipment procurement of the Guyuan Pengyang 2×660MW Unit Project. The winning bidders are Suzhou Xipeiyou Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (bid price: 2.062 million yuan), Wuxi Weifu High-Technology Group Co., Ltd. (bid price: 2.2 million yuan), and Shanghai Hydrogen Sharp Technology Co., Ltd. (bid price: 2.3736 million yuan). The tender was divided into one section, specifically for a 10Nm³/h proton exchange membrane hydrogen production unit. Xinjiang Huadian Weihuliang New Energy Co., Ltd.: The company announced the transaction results for the UPS and EPS of the alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production system for the Xinjiang Huadian Urumqi Point-to-Point Hydrogen Refueling Station, as well as the results for the hydrogen production system distribution cabinet. The suppliers are Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co., Ltd. and Tengzhou Taiyuan Power Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd., respectively. Junrui Green Hydrogen Energy (Chahar Right Rear Banner) Co., Ltd.: A competitive consultation announcement was released for the full-process management of the Chahar Right Rear Banner 14,400 t/year Hydrogen Production Project. According to the announcement, the procurement budget for the full-process management is 1.69% (bidders must not quote a rate higher than 1.69%, or the bid will be deemed invalid). Policy Review 1. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission published the "Ningxia 2026 First Batch of Project List Recommended to Private Capital." One key project in the hydrogen energy sector is the Integrated Hydrogen Storage, Transportation, and Utilization Zero-Carbon Energy Demonstration Base, located in the Lingzhou Chemical Industry Park in Lingwu City. The project aims to establish a demonstration model covering the entire green hydrogen production chain, including wind and solar power generation, hydrogen production, storage, and transportation. It will be equipped with corresponding facilities, pipelines, and transport fleets to provide logistics services to surrounding chemical enterprises and offer a feasible solution for replacing gray hydrogen with green hydrogen in the Ningdong coal chemical industry. Additionally, the project plans to construct hydrogen refueling stations to support bus operations and distributed fuel cell power generation projects. The total investment in the project amounts to 2.8 billion yuan. 2. The Jilin Provincial Energy Bureau released the "Implementation Plan for the Development and Construction of Green Electricity Direct Connection Projects in Jilin Province (Trial)" (Draft for Comments). The document indicates that new load projects can carry out green electricity direct connections, with priority support for hydrogen-based green energy (green hydrogen, green hydrogen to green ammonia, green hydrogen to green methanol, green hydrogen to sustainable aviation fuel, etc.), steel metallurgy, computing (data) centers, automotive manufacturing, and other industries. Electricity consumption projects that have not been registered with grid enterprises (including expansion parts of existing loads), electricity consumption projects that have been registered but whose supporting grid projects have not yet started construction, and existing projects agreed upon through consultation with grid enterprises are all considered new loads. In principle, new loads (including expansion parts of existing loads) and existing loads should not have direct electrical connections. 3. The European Commission approved a 4 billion euro special fund for electrolyzers, providing a 30% subsidy on equipment costs for projects with an annual capacity of ≥500 MW, and setting a 2030 target for electrolyzer efficiency in green hydrogen projects at ≥60% (LHV basis). Corporate Developments Plug Power : Faces a securities class action lawsuit in the US District Court for the Northern District of New York, accused of making misleading disclosures to investors regarding the progress of a US Department of Energy (DOE) loan guarantee of $1.66 billion (approximately 12 billion yuan), exaggerating the likelihood of obtaining the loan and the project construction capabilities. In November 2025, Plug announced the suspension of the loan-related project, jeopardizing the loan and the plan for six hydrogen plants, leading to consecutive declines in its stock price. Transition Industries : Signed a long-term natural gas supply agreement with Mexico's CFEnergía, securing a daily supply of 160 million cubic feet of US gas for the Pacifico Mexinol ultra-low carbon methanol project in Mexico. This contract marks the final key commercial milestone for the project, which has a total investment of $3.3 billion and is expected to commence operation by the end of 2029 to early 2030, producing 2.15 million mt of ultra-low carbon methanol annually, making it the largest facility of its kind globally. Power2X : Dutch hydrogen-based synthetic fuel developer Power2X acquired green hydrogen enterprise HyCC, with the transaction valuation undisclosed. The acquisition adds five green hydrogen projects in the Netherlands and Germany, with a total developable scale of 1 GW, aiding the company in advancing its 250,000 mt per year green hydrogen-based SAF project in Rotterdam, marking its transition from project development to execution. Robert Bosch GmbH: Conducted workforce optimization in China, with the first round involving nearly 200 employees at the Wuxi plant's internal combustion engine and hydrogen fuel cell projects. This is an economic layoff, with the company offering N+4 compensation, exceeding the statutory standard. China Huadian Corporation Ltd. : Party Secretary and Chairman Jiang Yi held talks in Baotou with Chen Zhichang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Party Committee and Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee, and Meng Qingwei, Deputy Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, where both sides exchanged views on further deepening central-local cooperation. Hebei Province Baoding High-Tech Environment Technology Co., Ltd.: announced the winning bid result for the Baoding High-Tech Environment Technology Co., Ltd. Hydrogen-Powered Sanitation Vehicle Procurement Project. The winning bidder was Changsha Zoomlion Environment Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 37.685 million yuan. Inner Mongolia Ebert Coal Technology Co., Ltd.: The hydrogen refueling, hydrogen swapping, charging and swapping integrated station at Plot 02-02C1 in the Airport Logistics Park was approved for construction by the Yijinhuoluo Banner Energy Bureau. The bid inviter is Inner Mongolia Ebert Coal Technology Co., Ltd., and the construction funds are self-raised. It is understood that this project is an integrated station for hydrogen refueling, hydrogen swapping, and charging. The hydrogen refueling station is classified as a Level III station with a hydrogen refueling capacity of 500 kg/d. The main facilities of the hydrogen refueling station include 1 unloading column, 2 units of 45 MPa hydrogen compressors, 1 unit of 90 MPa hydrogen compressor, 1 set of 45 MPa hydrogen storage cylinder bundle, 1 set of 90 MPa hydrogen storage cylinder bundle, 1 unit of HB5/H70 hydrogen refueling integrated machine, 3 units of compressor chiller units, 1 unit of hydrogen refueling machine chiller unit, 1 set of nitrogen cylinder bundle, 1 unit of nitrogen cabinet, 2 units of sequential control cabinets, 1 unit of heat exchanger, etc. The facilities for the hydrogen swapping and battery swapping station include 1 set of integrated hydrogen swapping and battery swapping skid, etc. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory test lifespan reaching 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprints/Technical Specifications 1. The team of Liu Qingju from Yunnan University constructed a superwetting Pt/NF@CF graded heterojunction electrocatalyst for low-energy consumption and high-efficiency hydrogen production. 2. Teams from Hunan Normal University and Central South University (AM) revealed the effects of compressive strain and oxygen vacancies on iridium oxide in proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Electrical Materials successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional seawater electrolysis electrocatalyst. 4. The group standard "Technical Specification for Wind-Solar-Storage Green Electricity Coupled Electrolysis Hydrogen Production" (Number T/CIEP 0272—2025) was released and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developed a 100 kW-level PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test equipment. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced the development of a new generation of high-performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

Under a no-policy-impact scenario, SMM estimates Zimbabwe's total lithium production to reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, accounting for 9% of global primary lithium supply. Following the export ban, as official implementing rules have not yet been released by the authorities, SMM has developed three scenarios to assess the impact on global lithium supply: 1. If only lithium sulfate can be exported: Zimbabwe could supply 17,000–35,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 8%–16% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 170,000–190,000 tonnes LCE. 2. If companies with processing capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: Zimbabwe could supply 90,000–140,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 45%–70% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 60,000–110,000 tonnes LCE. 3 . With beneficiation capacity, enterprises can export spodumene concentrate + lithium sulfate. In 2026, Zimbabwe's lithium resource supply is expected to reach nearly 150,000-170,000 tons, accounting for 75%-85% of the previously projected supply, representing a decrease of 30,000-50,000 tons compared to the earlier forecast. Assuming the ban on raw ore and lithium concentrate exports remains in effect throughout 2026, while lithium sulfate exports are permitted, SMM's assessment of the impact magnitude is as follows: 1 . Timeline of Public Information on Zimbabwe's Lithium Export Restrictions Source: SMM compilation based on public information 2. 2026 No-Policy-Impact Scenario SMM estimates Zimbabwe's lithium supply would reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing: Over 15% year-on-year growth from 2025 10% of global primary lithium supply in 2026 17% of global spodumene supply in 2026 3. Major Operating Mines in Zimbabwe Major Lithium Mining Projects in Zimbabwe Source: SMM compilation based on public information Notes : Based on public information: Zimbabwe's average spodumene grade ranges from 1.06–1.98%, with concentrate grades of 4.0–5.5%. Conversion ratio: 9.5:1 (concentrate to LCE) Petalite grades range from 0.8–1.8%, with concentrate grades of 3.0–4.2%. Conversion ratio: 16:1 (concentrate to LCE) References also made to individual companies' public disclosures Project Updates: Arcadia and Bikita submitted beneficiation plans to Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines in 2024 Arcadia: Lithium sulfate project construction began in January 2025, with initial design capacity of 50,000 tonnes. Commissioning began in October 2025, currently in ramp-up stage. Lithium sulfate exports experienced some delays in mid-to-late February 2025 Bikita: Announced in its May 2025 investor relations presentation that it plans to complete 10,000 tonnes lithium sulfate construction by end-2025, and commence 20,000 tonnes construction in 2026 Kamativi: Announced on February 26, 2026, that its Zimbabwe lithium sulfate project has commenced construction 4. China's Lithium Spodumene Imports (2025) Zimbabwe supplied over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China in 2025, accounting for approximately 15% of China's total imports. Lithium Spodumene Imports by Source Country (2025) Source: China Customs, SMM compilation 5. Project Comparison: Arcadia Lithium Sulfate Plant Construction and Ramp-Up Timeline Construction to commissioning takes approximately one year. If the export ban remains in effect throughout 2026: Arcadia and Bikita are confirmed to be able to export lithium sulfate Based on Kamativi's February 26, 2026 public announcement, it may also be able to export lithium sulfate. As Kamativi's capacity plans have not yet been disclosed, certain assumptions have been made regarding its output. No-Policy-Impact Baseline: Zimbabwe's Expected Total Output Approaching 200,000 Tonnes LCE in 2026. Scenario Analysis: Impact of Export Ban on Supply (1) Only lithium sulfate can be exported: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 30,000–35,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 16% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 170,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 17,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 8% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 190,000 tons LCE. (2) Companies with smelting capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 140,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 70% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 60,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium concentrate+ lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of nearly 90,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 45% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 110,000 tons LCE. (3) Enterprises with beneficiation capacity may apply to export spodumene concentrate + lithium sulfate: a. If the export procedure takes one month to complete (policy not yet clarified; this is an estimate only): Zimbabwe is expected to be able to export approximately 170,000 tons LCE of lithium resources in 2026, accounting for 85% of the country's originally projected annual supply, with a reduction of nearly 30,000 tons LCE. b. If the export procedure takes two months to complete (policy not yet clarified; this is an estimate only): Zimbabwe is expected to be able to export approximately 150,000 tons LCE of lithium resources in 2026, accounting for 75% of the country's originally projected annual supply, with a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons LCE.