The zinc market in May 2026 is experiencing unprecedented structural pressure. Import zinc concentrate TCs have fallen to -$56.25/dmt, while domestic TCs have dropped to 400 yuan/mt in metal content on a weekly basis.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has delivered a direct and material external shock to Southeast Asia’s energy supply structure. Solar (PV) is emerging as the main alternative for reducing exposure to fossil fuel price volatility. However, the structural tension between accelerating PV penetration and entrenched electricity market models will be the decisive factor governing the region’s energy transition pace.

SMM, April 3: This week, the mainstream tax-included ex-factory prices of secondary lead were at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with local premiums at 75-100 yuan/mt; lead prices rose mid-week, boosting enterprises' willingness to make shipments, but downstream consumers remained cautious in pre-holiday procurement, and overall actual transactions in the spot market were relatively weak. This week, the rise in lead prices helped repair smelter losses to some extent, but persistently high raw material costs for scrap batteries still put certain pressure on smelter profits. As of April 3, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -133 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -315 yuan/mt (the by-product revenue in the model did not include tin and antimony). Next week, after the holiday, the pace of smelter production resumptions will accelerate, coupled with continued inflows of imported lead, leaving overall supply relatively ample. As the consumption off-season approaches, premiums for spot orders of secondary refined lead are expected to continue moving sideways within a range, with limited room for the premium range to expand. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, March 13: This week, mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory prices for secondary lead were at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, with discounts of 50-100 yuan/mt in some areas; dragged down by scrap battery prices and weak downstream consumption, the industry remained loss-making, and most smelters held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. As of March 13, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss for large-scale enterprises was -422 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -633 yuan/mt (the model’s by-product revenue did not include tin or antimony). With delivery to be completed and rigid demand expected to recover next week, SMM expected discounts for secondary lead to narrow slightly. Overall, losses across China’s secondary lead industry remained unchanged and production resumptions were slow. Given the availability of primary lead and imported lead cargoes, premiums for spot orders of secondary refined lead were likely to maintain sideways movement, making substantial premiums difficult to emerge. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Supply and Demand Gradually Recover, ADC12 Prices Hold Up Well] After the holiday, market inquiry activities gradually recover, and trading activity increases, but actual transaction volumes remain relatively limited. Currently, downstream enterprises are mainly focused on restocking based on rigid demand and prioritizing the digestion of pre-holiday inventory. Entering March, with the full resumption of production at end-user companies, the certainty of MoM demand improvement strengthens, and consumption is expected to continue its rebound. Following the Lantern Festival, as enterprises fully resume production, market circulation is expected to gradually increase.

SMM News on June 13: Due to loss pressures, secondary lead suppliers had a low willingness to sell. Downstream battery producers and traders also showed no interest in purchasing secondary refined lead. During the week, the mainstream ex-factory prices (tax included) of secondary refined lead were on par with the SMM 1# lead average price, with only a small amount of supply in Central China trading at a discount of around 100 yuan/mt. The trading atmosphere in the spot market for secondary lead spot orders was sluggish. This week, lead prices fluctuated upward, and scrap battery prices also increased slightly, thus the reduction in the loss margins for smelters was limited. As of June 13, 2025, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -393 yuan/mt, while for small- and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises, it was -614 yuan/mt. 》Subscribe to view historical spot prices of SMM metals