[SMM Analysis：Rare Earth Scrap Recycling Slows as Tax Compliance Tightens, Impacting Production Rates]Recently, multiple rare earth scrap recycling enterprises reported that operating rates may decline in June-July. Large enterprises, with a higher proportion of self-procurement, are seeing more significant production reductions; small and medium-sized enterprises, relying less on self-procurement and more on processing orders, are relatively less affected.

[China Inventory Continued to Decline This Week, Aluminum Prices Show LME Outperforms SHFE in the Short Term] China inventory continued to decline this week but at a modest pace, limiting the upside elasticity of SHFE aluminum, with the divergence between domestic and overseas markets expected to persist in the short term. Key areas to watch going forward include whether China inventory destocking accelerates, whether the US-Iran deal can be formally signed, further clarity on the US Fed's rate path, and whether China is further tightening regulations on aluminum capacity operations. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term, with LME outperforming SHFE.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The ADC12 aluminum alloy market was generally stable with slight rise today. Driven by cost pressure, some enterprises raised their quotes slightly by 100 yuan/mt, while most manufacturers remained steady and took a wait-and-see approach. Currently, invoiced aluminum scrap resources remained persistently tight, pushing up procurement costs, and some manufacturers were concerned about potential production reduction risk. However, downstream demand remained mediocre, with limited end-user order release, which constrained price increases.

[SMM Analysis] Sulphuric Acid: A Key Variable Reshaping Copper Pricing Logic

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Increasing Maintenance at China's Secondary Lead Enterprises VS Easing Spot Premiums in Southeast Asia, Lead Prices May Remain in the Doldrums] US President Trump ordered the sinking of any vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the strait had been "completely blockaded." Recently, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with some downstream enterprises expanding production cuts, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement declined...

Early this week, the market continued to trade around expectations of US-Iran peace talks and fluctuations in the Middle East situation. The US and Iran maintained contact, with expectations of an extended ceasefire and subsequent talks driving a recovery in risk appetite. The pullback in the US dollar provided support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the US March PPI came in below expectations, temporarily easing inflation concerns and supporting copper prices to rise. However, as the US continued to expand its shipping blockade against Iran, disruptions to passage through the Strait of Hormuz had not been fully eliminated, and geopolitical uncertainties persisted. Overall, the macro theme this week remained warming expectations of US-Iran peace talks and a weaker US dollar being bullish for copper prices, but geopolitical fluctuations kept copper prices hovering at highs. On the fundamentals side, the ore supply tightness narrative continued to ferment. Amid Middle East disruptions, some sulphuric acid supplies to the DRC were obstructed, with some enterprises already cutting usage or even facing production reduction risks, as ore-side disruptions further transmitted to the production stage. Meanwhile, although Panama's Cobre Panama was authorized to process and export stockpiled materials, this did not signify a formal restart of the mine, and actual short-term incremental supply remained relatively limited. Overall, the current fundamentals still pointed to deepening ore supply tightness. Although longer-term supply expectations saw marginal improvement, this offered limited relief to the near-term tight landscape. Looking ahead to next week, the macro narrative is expected to remain largely unchanged. If US-Iran negotiations continue to advance, a weaker US dollar is expected to continue supporting copper prices; however, given the potential for renewed Middle East tensions, upside for copper prices is expected to remain constrained. On the fundamentals side, ore supply tightness and rising costs continue to provide support below prices, and copper prices are expected to most likely continue to fluctuate at highs in the near term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $13,000-13,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 100,500-103,500 yuan/mt. On the spot side, as absolute prices rise, downstream willingness to chase higher prices may be suppressed. Inventory destocking is expected to slow down, but spot cargo is still expected to find support due to tight spot circulation. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 80 yuan/mt.