H1 2026 silver saw a sharp spike to 30,900 yuan/kg in January, then plunged 55% to 13,816 yuan/kg by June, driven by squeezed spot liquidity and Fed policy reversal from easing to hawkish. Supply grew steadily; PV silver demand fell 21% YoY. H2 outlook: wait for inflation signals and Fed pivot, silver likely remains under pressure.

In H1 2026, the MHP market generally followed a logic of “continuously tightening supply and nickel and cobalt payables consolidating higher.” Nickel and cobalt payables rose steadily, only pulling back this month.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,206/mt. In early trading, the copper price center dipped to $13,146/mt, then drifted higher, and near the end of the session touched a high of $13,270/mt, eventually closing at $13,255/mt, down 0.6%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest reached 246,000 lots, a decrease of 972 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 101,890 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price center dipped to 101,640 yuan/mt, moved sideways then rose, and near the end of the session touched a high of 102,230 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 102,130 yuan/mt, down 0.7%. Trading volume reached 41,100 lots, and open interest reached 152,000 lots, an increase of 1,954 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bearish position building.

Can Peru’s new government improve the delivery efficiency of copper mine projects? The Fujimori government’s plan is not to redefine the mining regime, but to strengthen implementation instruments such as approvals, infrastructure, reinvestment incentives, and revenue distribution. However, before constraints related to communities, permitting, infrastructure, and the decline of old mines are substantially overcome, Peru’s copper ore supply is still unlikely to be significantly released in the short term.

Can Peru’s new government improve copper project execution? Fujimori’s government plan does not seek to redesign Peru’s mining regime, but rather to strengthen execution tools, including permitting, infrastructure, reinvestment incentives and revenue distribution. However, unless key constraints around communities, permitting, infrastructure and mature-mine depletion are materially addressed, Peru’s copper supply is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.

SMM, June 30: According to SMM statistics, in June 2026 (30 days), China’s aluminum production rose 2.2% YoY but fell 3.1% MoM. Although weak domestic demand dragged down various sectors generally under pressure, export demand for aluminum semis provided effective support for domestic liquid aluminum consumption. The domestic proportion of liquid aluminum edged up, with the liquid aluminum share rising 0.7 percentage points MoM to 77.2% in the month, slightly outperforming expectations at the beginning of the month. The core increase came from attractive processing margins for some products, which boosted demand for liquid aluminum. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum proportion calculations, China’s aluminum casting ingot volume in June fell 3.8% YoY and 6.2% MoM. Capacity changes: As of end-June, SMM estimated China’s existing aluminum capacity at approximately 46.289 million mt, up 0.17% MoM. Production forecast: Entering July 2026, the price spread between aluminum in and outside China narrowed, squeezing arbitrage profits on aluminum semis exports. However, previously finalized export orders still need to be concentrated for fulfillment, providing a floor for overall aluminum semis exports. Additionally, downstream processors’ attractive processing margins are driving up their willingness to purchase directly supplied liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 0.4 percentage points to 77.6%. [Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM