Philippine Nickel Ore Market: Ample Inventories at Chinese and Indonesian Smelters, Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers Driving Nickel Ore Prices Under Pressure Philippine nickel ore prices declined this week. Price-wise, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% grade at $53-56/wmt, Ni 1.4% grade at $61-64/wmt, Ni 1.5% grade at $68-71/wmt. In addition, the 1.3% grade CIF average price from the Philippines to Indonesia was quoted at $48-50/wmt, and the 1.4% grade CIF average price at $56-58/wmt. Recently, Philippine nickel ore prices have generally faced downward pressure. In terms of supply, as the rainy season ended in major producing areas, shipments of Philippine nickel ore increased significantly. Most mines resumed normal shipping, effectively easing the previously tight supply situation. Meanwhile, demand side, large smelters from China and Indonesia were leveraging ample inventories and favorable supply availability in the market to push for lower prices. As buyers on both sides only accepted lower prices, miners had to compromise. In terms of export flows, nickel ore shipments to Indonesia were relatively low this week, indicating a slow procurement pace in the Indonesian market. Given the still-weak recovery in nickel ore shipments to Indonesia, bearish market sentiment is expected to drag nickel ore prices further down. Inventory side, as of May 8 (Friday), nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.55 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW, with total port inventory equivalent to approximately 35,700 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China's NPI prices continued to rise overall this week, while spot transaction prices edged down to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs this week, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment remained subdued. Smelters' continued push for lower prices on the raw material side caused the nickel ore CIF price center to shift further downward. As a result, Philippine ore FOB price support was extremely lacking. Considering destocking and maintaining trade turnover, miners are expected to make concessions in subsequent quotes. Currently, bearish sentiment dominates the market, and there remains room for further downside in prices in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in May. Indonesian Nickel Ore Market: Indonesian Nickel Benchmark Price Breaks Through $18,000, Extreme Weather and Policy Dynamics Intensify Price Divergence Indonesian nickel ore market prices fluctuated overall this week. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the nickel mineral benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. The HMA for the first half of May was: nickel at $18,849.3/mt (up $1,047.15 from the first period of May 2026 at $17,802.14, a 5.88% increase); cobalt at $55,854/mt; iron ore at $1.58/mt; chrome ore at $6.37/mt. Currently, the CIF price of 1.6%-grade saprolite ore reached $77.8–80.8/wmt, up $3.3 from last week. The price of 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $28.33/wmt, flat from last week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impact Saprolite ore: Production from major mines is expected to edge up in May. Although Indonesia has largely entered the dry season, abnormally heavy rainfall hit the central and southern Sulawesi region mid-week. As a result, land transportation and barge transshipment plans at some small and medium-sized mines were forced to halt. Despite RKAB approval progress reaching 90%, spot supply of high-grade saprolite ore remains tight; nevertheless, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened notably compared to earlier periods. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. Although the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore into their raw materials to alleviate the pressure from high-grade ore shortages and surging costs. Pricing side, smelters currently primarily adopt fixed pricing or a "HPM + $7–10 premium" model. Additionally, some smelters have begun implementing uniform saprolite ore benchmark specifications (cobalt 0.05%, iron 20%, chromium 1%), regardless of differences in actual ore output from individual mines. Furthermore, composition bonuses in the market have been reduced to minimal levels, as most bonuses are already incorporated into the fixed premium. Overall, as HMA has already breached the $18,000/mt threshold and the nickel ore royalty has risen to 15%, downside room for Indonesian nickel ore prices is limited in the short term. Limonite ore: Limonite ore prices declined and did not follow the increase in the new HPM. Affected by a potential sulphuric acid supply deficit in May that could lead to MHP production cuts, limonite ore demand was under pressure. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory, smelters continued to push for lower prices aggressively. 3. SMM Internal Estimates: The new formula led to ore price divergence and amplified fluctuations (particularly affected by the relatively high associated cobalt content in certain ores). SMM estimates showed that the new HPM for 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $49.95, already significantly higher than actual market assessed prices; the new HPM for 1.6%-grade saprolite ore was $70.83, and under the new pricing formula, price fluctuations were notably amplified due to the higher cobalt content in certain ores. Although current actual market transaction prices remain above this benchmark, the gap between the two is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quota (RKAB) and Market Outlook: Indonesia's ESDM indicated that the 2026 RKAB approval progress has reached approximately 90%. According to SMM statistics, the cumulative approved RKAB quota for Indonesian nickel ore totalled approximately 230–240 million wmt. The market widely expects the final quota to be officially finalised by month-end of April. Affected by the combined impact of expectations of RKAB quota reductions, resource uncertainty, and the shortage of high-grade ore, some smelters have already begun raising trade premiums and surcharges to secure supply sources. The market has recently been closely watching the announcement by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia on Monday (May 11, 2026) that the government will postpone its plan to impose export duties (bea keluar) on nickel downstream products in order to formulate a reasonable pricing formula that is a "win-win" for both the country and enterprises. Although this tariff is intended to drive the transformation of the nickel industry, which currently achieves only 40% deep processing, toward higher value-added products (such as moving beyond merely producing NPI), the government decided to temporarily "shelve" the proposal after hearing industry opinions.

SMM May 15 News: In May 2026, the global molybdenum market remained in a persistently tight supply-demand pattern, with prices extending and accelerating the upward trend seen in April. International molybdenum oxide prices kept surging at high levels, while domestic molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum prices repeatedly hit new stage highs.

Next week, key macro data releases will include China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size YoY, the final reading of the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the final reading of the US May one-year inflation rate expectations. In addition, the Fed Chairman transition has been completed, and the monetary policy meeting minutes are set to be released next week. LME lead side, the ex-China mine and smelting sector is going through a turbulent period. Following the accident at a lead-zinc smelter in Kazakhstan in early May, energy supply conflicts in Peru escalated this week. As Peru is a major lead-zinc mining region, this tightened supply expectations on the mine side, supporting lead prices. Meanwhile, spot lead supply tensions in Southeast Asia remained prominent. On one hand, LME lead inventory stood as high as 265,000 mt, mainly consisting of low-grade lead ingots; on the other hand, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia faced significant lead ingot supply gaps, with spot premiums rising again, mainly due to the scarcity of high-grade lead ingot resources. Overall, LME lead is expected to continue to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,975-2,035/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the issue of rising visible inventory of lead ingots caused by short-term deliveries will ease as deliveries conclude. However, the biggest bearish factors currently come from the lead consumption off-season, while secondary lead smelters have shown signs of production resumptions, putting lead prices under pressure. Additionally, the lead ingot import window fully closed this week, and given the regional tight supply of lead ingots outside China, attention should be paid to expectations of the lead ingot export window opening in H2. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,350-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,300-16,600 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with downstream enterprises having limited rigid demand and being relatively cautious in procurement. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, with factories in some regions gradually resuming production. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the materialization of new maintenance at primary lead enterprises. Spot lead is expected to still trade at a slight discount next week (against SMM #1 lead).

According to SMM research, from May 8 to May 14, 2026, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises across five provinces was 66.63%, up 16.07 percentage points WoW. With the impact of the Labour Day holiday over, lead-acid battery enterprises generally resumed normal production, driving up the weekly lead-acid battery operating rate. Currently, apart from ESS battery enterprises which had moderate orders mainly driven by demand from data center construction, other markets including e-bike and automotive lead-acid batteries were in the traditional off-season, with most producers in a state of production cuts. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises in the e-bike lead-acid battery segment ranged from 60% to 90%.

[SMM Weekly Platinum and Palladium Review] This week (May 11 – May 15), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 509 yuan/gram and closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, down 14.95 yuan/gram or 2.91% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 542.25 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 496.05 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 366 yuan/gram and closed at 345 yuan/gram, down 26.45 yuan/gram or 7.12% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 376.85 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 340 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 32,874 lots with a total turnover of 17.139 billion yuan and open interest of 9,970 lots, down 4,309 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,453 lots with a total turnover of 6.651 billion yuan and open interest of 6,565 lots, down 499 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium first rose and then declined during the week. Peru experienced a sudden energy crisis within the week and issued a national emergency decree. Power rationing was expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which triggered a silver rally. Driven by sector spillover effects, platinum and palladium also rose accordingly. The subsequent decline was concentrated on Friday, when platinum and palladium plunged sharply intraday. Trump's visit to China eased tariff expectations and suppressed strategic resource premiums, while a rising US dollar index and elevated medium- to long-term US Treasury yields jointly weighed on precious metal valuations. On the Middle East geopolitical front: Gulf states discussed post-war regional governance. Saudi Arabia proposed a non-aggression pact, and Israel's defense minister stated that military action against Iran might be taken again. On the US Fed front: the US Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54 to 45. However, Powell is expected to remain as a Fed governor. This vote marked the most partisan-divided confirmation in history. "The strongest dissenting governor" Miran officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that the current interest rates were too high. On trade and tariffs: during Trump's visit to China, the two sides reached multiple important consensuses, agreeing to manage tariff differences and restart dedicated trade negotiations. The US suspended new tariffs on China and will gradually reduce punitive tariffs. Both sides enhanced strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation across multiple areas, laying an important foundation for the easing and stable development of bilateral relations. In terms of supply: South Africa's power shortage eased significantly, and PGM mine expansions progressed; Nornickel's Q1 platinum and palladium production declined sharply, mainly due to Western sanctions affecting its payments, logistics, and equipment imports. Nornickel's platinum and palladium production is expected to see significant production cuts in 2026. On the demand side: PGM demand from the fiberglass industry showed positive momentum. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry is expected to shift from platinum-based to palladium-based applications, with multiple enterprises deploying related technologies and considerable substitution potential. Recent precious metals market trading focused on uncertainties arising from recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US Fed monetary policy expectations, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics, the implementation of power rationing in Peru, and speeches by US Fed officials, as well as palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.

SMM, May 15: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,530 yuan/mt during the session. Initially, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the 16,500-16,550 yuan/mt range, then weakened slightly, dragged down by the overall bearish sentiment across non-ferrous metals, dipping to a low of 16,470 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the close, but upward momentum remained weak, ultimately settling at 16,510 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick with a decline of 80 yuan/mt, or 0.48%. Currently, production cuts, shutdowns, and production resumptions coexist among secondary lead smelters, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined on the supply side. Outside China, the lead ingot import window has closed, and coupled with the widening supply gap for high-grade lead ingots in Southeast Asia, the inflow of imported lead cargoes has pulled back. On the sentiment front, the market going forward should focus on expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, as well as whether policy benefits released from related visits to China will impact lead price trends. During the session, the SHFE lead current-month 2605 contract closed at 16,310 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 16,510 yuan/mt, open interest of 4,790 lots, delivery volume of 23,950 mt, and warrant inventory of 67,325 mt. The SHFE lead 2605 contract achieved a smooth delivery. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.