Aluminum associations from the United States, Europe, Canada and Japan highlighted OECD data showing that global aluminum-sector subsidies totaled USD118.3 billion during 2005-2024, with China accounting for USD101.4 billion, or 86% of the total. In 2024 alone, China received USD10.2 billion of the sector’s USD11.1 billion global subsidies. Industry groups noted that China’s share of global primary aluminum output has risen from 11% to 61% over the past two decades, with subsidy-supported growth extending into downstream processing and recycling. The associations called for coordinated measures, including import monitoring systems, tariff alignment and potential scrap export restrictions, to strengthen supply-chain security and support fair competition.

SMM News, May 29: According to SMM statistics, domestic primary aluminum output in May 2026 (31 days) rose 2.1% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month. Although the recovery of domestic end-user demand has been relatively slow, the persistent widening of the primary aluminum supply gap overseas has strongly boosted export demand for domestic aluminum products. This has effectively underpinned domestic molten aluminum consumption and kept apparent consumption in positive growth territory. The proportion of molten aluminum in domestic production edged up moderately, rising by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month to 76.5% in the month. The overall performance was slightly better than expectations at the start of the month, mainly driven by stronger-than-expected export orders. Based on SMM’s calculation of molten aluminum proportion, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in May fell 1.2% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month. Capacity Changes : As of late May, SMM recorded domestic operational primary aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million metric tons, with no month-on-month change. Output Forecast : In June 2026, buoyed by improving overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep recovering, supporting a slight rebound in the molten aluminum proportion. Overall, the molten aluminum proportion is projected to increase by 0.1 percentage point to 76.6%.

SMM News, May 29: According to SMM statistics, the total output of primary aluminum overseas in May 2026 fell year-on-year by 9.9%, mainly due to large-scale production cuts at aluminum smelters in the Middle East. The average daily overseas output edged up 0.4% month-on-month, supported by production resumptions at smelters in the US, Spain and Iceland, as well as ramping-up output from new projects in Indonesia. As revealed in the Q4 and full-year financial report of Vedanta Aluminium for Fiscal Year 2026, Balco Aluminium Plant has launched the first production run on India’s most advanced 525kA primary aluminum production lines. The plant’s total production capacity has expanded to 1 million metric tons, and the project is expected to enter a steady output ramping phase. Looking ahead to June 2026, production resumptions at aluminum smelters in the US and Iceland will continue. Driven by high price levels, new primary aluminum projects in Indonesia will accelerate construction, and some are expected to commence power connection and commissioning gradually. The expanded capacity at Balco in India will keep ramping up. Overall, overseas primary aluminum output will remain in year-on-year decline in the short term, while the average daily output will maintain month-on-month growth amid ongoing production resumptions and capacity ramping of new projects. Market participants shall keep a close eye on official announcements from aluminum producers across the Middle East, Indonesia and India.

Data from Industrious Labs showed that US 50% tariffs on primary aluminum have significantly reduced imports, with shipments from Canada falling 25% YoY and not fully replaced by other suppliers. Total available primary aluminum in the US, including domestic production and imports, has dropped to its lowest level since tariffs were introduced in 2018, even below pandemic lows. Meanwhile, US primary aluminum output has remained around 0.7–1.0 million tones since 2017, while demand could rise by as much as 40% over the next decade. Markets believe supply risks from the Middle East, high electricity costs and long smelter expansion timelines will keep the US aluminum market tight in the near term.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminum output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7% year-on-year and fell by 2.9% month-on-month. As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminum sheet, strip & foil and aluminum wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminum ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3% in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminum profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in April dropped by 3.4% year-on-year and 9.0% month-on-month. Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminum capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes. Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminum production ratio among domestic primary aluminum producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminum ratio. comprehensively, the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, the total primary aluminum output overseas in April 2026 fell 10.2% year-on-year, while the average daily overseas output dropped 10.0% month-on-month, mainly as the impact of production cuts at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters became more evident. During the period, despite accelerated production resumptions at overseas primary aluminum smelters amid high prices, the overall incremental volume was far lower than the scale of production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a notable year-on-year and month-on-month decline in overseas primary aluminum output in April. Per Alcoa’s Q1 earnings report, the company announced on April 8, 2026 that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain had been safely completed. According to Vedanta’s production report, its primary aluminum output in the 2026 fiscal year (Q2 2025 to Q1 2026) hit a record high of 2.456 million tons, up 1% year-on-year, mainly driven by improved operational efficiency. As per an official announcement from Century Aluminum, idle capacity at its Mt. Holly aluminum smelter in South Carolina has commenced restarting, with the first batch of primary aluminum production underway. It is expected that the resumed capacity will reach full operational status by the end of June, involving a total capacity of approximately 50,000 tons. In addition, the second production line at its primary aluminum smelter in Iceland has resumed production several months ahead of schedule. Staff are energizing the first batch of electrolytic cells for the second line and will accelerate the restart of remaining cells, targeting a near-full production level by the end of July. Looking ahead to May 2026, production resumptions at smelters in the US and Iceland, together with the ramp-up of new capacity in Indonesia, are expected to push average daily output higher month-on-month, though year-on-year output is projected to remain in sharp negative growth. Overall, given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, overseas primary aluminum output is expected to stay in sustained year-on-year negative growth in the short term. Market participants shall continue to monitor subsequent announcements from relevant aluminum smelters in the Middle East as well as global aluminum inventory trends.