Southeast Asia's aluminum scrap market rebounded this week, with key grades in Malaysia and Thailand rising, while ADC12 prices softened amid weak downstream demand. Despite lower LME aluminum prices, tight scrap supply kept offers firm. Sentiment improved slightly, but buying remained need-based. Attention also shifted to US Section 232 developments and their potential impact on trade flows and regional supply.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways in a narrow range. The futures market saw intensifying volatility, with the most-traded contract 2609's price range consolidating from 141,400-154,800 yuan/mt at the week's start to 137,200-148,500 yuan/mt. After hitting a weekly low of 136,800 yuan/mt mid-week, prices rebounded, while open interest continued to decline. Market transactions reflected a pattern of downstream users buying the dip and purchasing as needed, while upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling spot orders, with persistently weak willingness to sell and firm quotes, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of dip-buying and purchasing as needed, with purchase willingness strengthening when prices fell to relatively low levels, though large-scale restocking had yet to emerge. Trader inventories continued to destock due to downstream just-in-time procurement and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained relatively stable, while the spot-futures price spread continued to strengthen. Supply-side production maintained a decreasing trend, with upstream inventory staying low. This week, lithium carbonate production continued its decreasing trend, mainly because some spodumene and lepidolite-based smelters underwent maintenance, coupled with gradually tightening circulation of spodumene ore, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate of lithium chemical plants. Looking at inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants showed noticeable sentiment to hold back from selling, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels; downstream material plants continued their just-in-time procurement strategy by buying the dip, with inventory remaining largely stable; traders' inventory continued to destock under the impact of downstream purchasing as needed and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a slight upward consolidation trend within a range. Supply-side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and tightening spodumene ore circulation will lend support to prices; demand-side, downstream dip-buying continues, but large-scale centralized stockpiling has yet to appear. Currently, tightening spot circulation and a strengthening spot-futures price spread provide bottom support for prices. Close attention should still be paid to the August production schedule expectations of downstream players and whether there are expectations of further tightening in spot lithium carbonate circulation.

This week, platinum and palladium swung wildly, initially falling before rebounding and closing higher. Early in the week, they were dragged lower by the Fed’s hawkish stance and US-Iran tensions, then after hitting bottom on the 20th, buying emerged to fuel a rebound. On the GFEX, platinum closed at 409.35 yuan/g and palladium at 310.80 yuan/g. Spot premiums dipped slightly amid subdued demand. Looking ahead, easing hawkishness could open a window for a rebound, but upside remains capped by unrevised rate hike expectations, geopolitically stoked inflation, and liquidity tightening triggered by AI adjustments. Attention on the late-July FOMC and US-Iran situation.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver V-Shaped Rebound This Week with 8.47% Weekly Gain; Double Bottom Pattern Emerges, Awaiting Breakout] Silver prices fell first and then rose this week, recording a weekly gain of 8.47%. The US Fed's hawkish remarks and geopolitical conflicts once weighed on silver prices, before ceasefire expectations and technical repair drove a rebound. Spot premiums held steady at parity, with thin trading. On the inventory front, total social inventory destocked by 84 mt, and ETF open interest edged up. Technically, a double bottom pattern initially emerges, with attention on a neckline breakout at $63/oz. For next week, the SGE range is seen at 13,300-15,800 yuan/kg, and LBMA at $55-65/oz.

As of Thursday this week, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate rebounded. Demand side, being mid-month, downstream enterprises still held raw material inventories, resulting in weak stockpiling sentiment and low acceptance of nickel salt prices. Supply side, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices were still high, and some producers held expectations for production cuts. As nickel prices gradually stabilized, enterprises showed willingness to raise their offers. Looking ahead, the market is expected to focus primarily on destocking this month, with nickel sulphate prices mainly hinging on the cost support from nickel prices. On the inventory front, this week the inventory index of upstream nickel salt smelters slipped from 9.3 days to 8.9 days, that of downstream precursor plants fell from 10.6 days to 9.2 days, and the inventory index of integrated enterprises dropped from 8.1 days to 7.6 days. In terms of buying and selling strength, this week the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor of upstream nickel salt smelters held steady at 1.8, the Purchasing Sentiment Factor of downstream precursor plants remained at 2.5, and the integrated enterprises sentiment factor rose from 2.4 to 2.5. (Historical data can be accessed via the database.)

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Backwardation Structure Widens, LME Zinc Center Moves Higher] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, the daily candlestick center moved higher, MACD turned positive, and the middle Bollinger Band below provided support. Overnight, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalated, inflation risks increased, and LME zinc inventory continued to decline...