Supply glut, cautious demand, and fading cost support drag the benchmark contract down RMB 205/mt in the week of March 30 – April

Since the beginning of 2026, the lithium battery materials industry has seen a new wave of structural positioning led by chemical giants. In March, Dazhong Mining announced that it planned to sign a tripartite agreement with the Meishan High-tech Zone Administrative Committee and Wanhua Chemical (Sichuan) Battery Materials Technology Co., Ltd. to jointly invest in and build a “200,000 mt/year lithium chemicals project,” with Phase I expected to be planned at 30,000 mt.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

[SMM Analysis: Key Anchor in Great Power Rivalry: The U.S. "Project Vault" and the Changing Resource Landscape in Latin America] While the second phase of Chinese company's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador remains mired in a 'completed but awaiting approval' deadlock, 10,000 kilometers away in Washington, the President, alongside the Export-Import Bank of the United States, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative named 'Project Vault.'

[ChinaIOL Commercial Air Conditioning Latest Data] In 2025, the sales scale of the central air conditioning industry reached 138.68 billion yuan, presenting a distinct pattern of "domestic cold, external hot." Among this, the domestic sales scale was 112.55 billion yuan, down 7.4% YoY, mainly affected by the sluggish real estate market, weak traditional engineering demand, and intensified price wars for equipment, with small and medium-sized brands facing particularly prominent operational pressure.