[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: The second round of coke price increase was officially implemented, with procurement prices raised by 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from midnight on April 20. In terms of supply, coke producers maintained moderate per-mt profitability, production remained normal, shipments were smooth, and in-factory inventory largely stayed at low levels. Demand side, steel mills maintained high and stable operating rates, in-factory coke inventory continued to pull back, and demand for coke remained solid. However, steel mill profits did not see significant recovery, and steel mills still showed resistance sentiment toward further coke price increases. Overall, the second round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market is in a digestion phase. A third round of increase is unlikely to materialize in the short term, and the coke market may hold up well and remain generally stable with slight rise going forward.

Starting from the panic low of $4,099 on March 23, the gold price has slowly but steadily worked its way upward over the past four weeks. Even though momentum is gradually fading and geopolitical tensions continue to act as a disruptive factor, the persistence of the recovery movement remains remarkable. Higher price targets in the range between $4,900 and $5,100 remain active and could be reached soon.

This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

This week, the e-bike and automotive battery replacement market was in a traditional off-season state. Dealers only purchased as needed, and some enterprises reported weakening orders and reduced production. In terms of battery selling prices, there were no sales promotions as typically seen during the off-season in previous years, mainly due to rising raw material costs. Apart from rising lead prices, prices of other auxiliary materials also trended upward. In particular, sulphuric acid prices surged significantly since late March, with smelting-grade sulphuric acid prices rising by over 50%, and quotes in some regions approaching 2,000 yuan/mt. In addition, lead prices fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, downstream enterprises purchased as needed on dips, and market transactions were moderate. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and most downstream enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach with cautious purchasing, with spot market transactions remaining sluggish.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei, and other regions saw tightened production due to the concentrated push by local governments for ultra-low emission retrofits. However, production in other regions rose instead of declining, keeping overall coke supply stable with a slight increase. Demand side, steel mill hot metal production continued to increase, driving strong rigid demand for coke. Steel mills with low inventory had a strong willingness to restock, while other steel mills purchased as needed with stable rigid demand. Overall, coke supply and demand remained in a tight balance. The second round of coke price increases is expected to materialize, and the coke market may hold up well next week.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.